Short Trade on XMR

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02 Oct 2026 at 15:43:21 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XMR (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 0.68 XMR at 533.82$ per unit. Take profit: 504.558 (5.48 %) & Stop Loss: 545.5248 (2.19 %)

XMR SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 15:43 → 23:40 · 7 hours

Position

Entry 533.82$

Qty 0.6835 XMR

Size 364.8555$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)

Risk Setup

TP 504.558 (+5.48%)

TP $ 20$

SL 545.5248 (-2.19%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -2.19% / -8$ MAE -3.09% MFE +0.19% 0.1R expires 03 Oct 03:43

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 172760)

#56 / 82

OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 15:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3287

Quality Score

0.534

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#56 / 82

OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

83 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-3

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-2

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-5

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.19 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#56 / 82

OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

83 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-5

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.19 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-1.15×ATR
4h	near	-1.31×ATR
1d	clear	2.92×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	↑ up	early	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

10.2M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 15:32

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 02/10 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 02/10 14:00 Score : -2 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : range_high (0)

02/10 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

02/10 14:00

Score : -2 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4679

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.90	early_expansion -1
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	bear 0.90	transition

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -3

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 6.8%

Macro alt_capitulation

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : btc

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	59.4%
1h	59.4%
4h	1.6%
24h	20.3%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	62.5%	+0.04%
4h	10.9%	-4.40%
24h	23.4%	-3.16%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.223

Universe : 64 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 1.00

Snapshot évalué : 02/10 15:31 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4353

Score SMA

0.4825

Rank

#69 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1053

Rank Norm SMA

0.0959

Calculé le

01/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6003	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.09% · r3d: 0.69% · ema21_slope: 0.3344% · dist_ema21: 0.886%
Force Relative	25%	0.4379	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.56% · rs_3d: -0.96% · beta_24h: 1.029
Volume	20%	0.1675	rvol_20: 0.50× · zscore_50: -0.701 · trend: -39.60%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7410	ADX: 45.9 (trend) · Chop: 55.7 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0111	ATR%: 5.967% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 15:00

Score brut

0.5339

Score SMA

0.5018

Rank

#56 / 82

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3287

Rank Norm SMA

0.4180

Calculé le

02/10/2026 15:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4261	r1h: -0.570% · r4h: -1.394% · r1d: -2.03% · r3d: -1.32% · ema21_slope: -0.0363% · dist_ema21: -1.598%
Force Relative	25%	0.4743	rs_1h: 0.069% · rs_4h: 0.283% · rs_1d: -1.39% · rs_3d: -2.05% · beta_24h: 0.367
Volume	20%	0.4879	rvol_20: 1.44× · zscore_50: 0.420 · trend: 31.57%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5993	ADX: 16.4 (weak) · Chop: 42.8 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 0.923% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.4916

Score SMA

0.4591

Rank

#62 / 78

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2486

Rank Norm SMA

0.2280

Calculé le

02/10/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4762	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.659% · r1d: 0.20% · r3d: 0.72% · ema21_slope: 0.0257% · dist_ema21: -0.390%
Force Relative	25%	0.4554	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.592% · rs_1d: -1.21% · rs_3d: -2.02% · beta_24h: 0.527
Volume	20%	0.4775	rvol_20: 1.85× · zscore_50: 0.274 · trend: -17.87%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.2625	ADX: 11.7 (weak) · Chop: 79.6 (range)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.635% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.193% (11.7048)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.189%	0.1R	-0.719%	0.3R	0.3×	12
2h	+0.189%	0.1R	-1.383%	0.6R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.189%	0.1R	-1.611%	0.7R	0.1×	48
8h	+0.189%	0.1R	-2.291%	1.0R	0.1×	96
12h ★	+0.189%	0.1R	-3.095%	1.4R	0.1×	144
24h	+0.189%	0.1R	-4.316%	2.0R	0.0×	288
36h	+0.189%	0.1R	-5.654%	2.6R	0.0×	432
48h	+0.189%	0.1R	-5.654%	2.6R	0.0×	576
72h	+0.189%	0.1R	-5.654%	2.6R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 1 min MAE in 1476 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.18

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	57%	noisy_chop 32%	early	—	—	0.50	bull_high	+13.92%	-0.49	30/09 20:00
4h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	range_high	39%	noisy_chop 33%	early	near -1.3ATR	—	0.28	bull_high	+3.04%	-0.17	02/10 08:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	fading	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	57%	noisy_chop 39%	late	near -1.1ATR	—	0.22	range_medium	-0.29%	-0.15	02/10 14:00
15m	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bear_medium	61%	noisy_chop 42%	late	near -0.5ATR	—	0.46	bear_low	-1.39%	-0.05	02/10 15:15
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #197724	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.621	compression	bull_high	57%	noisy_chop 32%	early 10b 0.1ATR	—	—	0.50	75%	↓ -0.28	above_value	+0.60	—	#105841	0.50	bull_high	+13.92%	-0.49	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 20:27
4h #204164	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.420	compression	range_high	39%	noisy_chop 33%	early 24b -0.3ATR	near -1.3ATR	—	1.85	47%	↔ +0.09	above_value	-0.02	—	#108637	0.28	bull_high	+3.04%	-0.17	02/10 08:00 upd 02/10 12:20
1h anchor #205290	↓ down	range	range	moderate	fading	0.638	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	57%	noisy_chop 39%	late 12b -1.8ATR	near -1.1ATR	—	1.44	74%	↑ +0.68	below_value	-1.41	—	#109190	0.22	range_medium	-0.29%	-0.15	02/10 14:00 upd 02/10 15:12
15m #205450	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.513	expansion	bear_medium	61%	noisy_chop 42%	late 1b -2.5ATR	near -0.5ATR	—	0.67	67%	↔ -0.03	below_value	-1.41	—	#109190	0.46	bear_low	-1.39%	-0.05	02/10 15:15 upd 02/10 15:33
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	10b	—	2.779×ATR	p20	+0.122×ATR	p8
4h	↑ up	early	24b	—	2.081×ATR	p7	-0.271×ATR	p23
1h	↓ down	late	12b	—	3.298×ATR	p78	-1.773×ATR	p92
15m	↓ down	late	1b	—	1.735×ATR	p8	-2.546×ATR	p97

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

long_trend: -1
confidence: 0.8283
reason: down_bo width=2.89×ATR dur=61b phase=fresh
stop_price: 545.52479708
tp_price: 504.55800729
atr:
score: 0.82832721060435
expires_at: 2026-10-03T07:43:13.356624
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.82832721060435

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : 0.0485
obi_top10 : 0.0746
micro_price : 533.77476489
spread_pct : 0.07685
mid_price : 533.715
bid_wall_price :
bid_wall_size :
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 540
ask_wall_size : 489.56
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.0485
obi_top5_std : 0.0002
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7251
aggregation_tick : 1
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
552.18
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
537.88
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
545.03
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790751600
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790967600
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.8901
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
61
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: stretched
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.8283
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790964000
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
537.88
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.9344
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.8205
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
7
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
8
```
regime : bear_high
atr_entry : 4.94797082

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.9344

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.8205

Signaux confirmants (6)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	15:43	533.82000000	0%
2	15:53	533.82000000	0%
3	16:06	533.82000000	0%
4	16:40	536.60000000	+0.521%
5	16:50	536.60000000	+0.521%
6	17:00	536.60000000	+0.521%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7251ms Confidence avant OB : 83% → 83%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.049

avg 0.049 ± 0.000

OBI Top 10 0.075

Microstructure

Mid Price

533.7150

Micro Price

533.7748

Spread

0.0769%

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

540.0000

Size

489.56

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
533.82	545.5248	504.558	2.5	510.22

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 533.82
Stop Loss: 545.5248
Take Profit: 504.558

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 545.5248 - 533.82 = 11.7048
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 533.82 - 504.558 = 29.262
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 29.262 / 11.7048 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
364.8555	100	0.6835	4.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 11.7048

Taille de position = 8 / 11.7048 = 0.68

Taille de position USD = 0.68 x 533.82 = 363

Donc, tu peux acheter 0.68 avec un stoploss a 545.5248

Avec un position size USD de 363$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 0.68 x 11.7048 = 7.96

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.96$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 0.68 x 29.262 = 19.9

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.9$

Résumé

Taille de position 0.68
Taille de position USD 363
Perte potentielle 7.96
Gain potentiel 19.9
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
5.48 %	20 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
2.19 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-8 $	-2.19

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.291 %	104.49 %	2

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
533.82	545.5248	504.558	2.5	510.22

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 533.82
Stop Loss: 545.5248
Take Profit: 504.558

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 545.5248 - 533.82 = 11.7048
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 533.82 - 504.558 = 29.262
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 29.262 / 11.7048 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.193% (11.7048)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.189%	0.1R	-0.719%	0.3R	0.3×	12
2h	+0.189%	0.1R	-1.383%	0.6R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.189%	0.1R	-1.611%	0.7R	0.1×	48
8h	+0.189%	0.1R	-2.291%	1.0R	0.1×	96
12h ★	+0.189%	0.1R	-3.095%	1.4R	0.1×	144
24h	+0.189%	0.1R	-4.316%	2.0R	0.0×	288
36h	+0.189%	0.1R	-5.654%	2.6R	0.0×	432
48h	+0.189%	0.1R	-5.654%	2.6R	0.0×	576
72h	+0.189%	0.1R	-5.654%	2.6R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 1 min MAE in 1476 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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