Short Trade on PENGU

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02 Oct 2026 at 20:15:08 hyperliquid

Short Trade on PENGU (momentum_rotation_score)

With 15262.22 PENGU at 0.00892$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 0.009445 (5.87 %)

PENGU SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 20:15 → 23:10 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.008921$

Qty 15262.2241 PENGU

Size 136.1543$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 136.15$

SL 0.009445 (-5.87%)

SL $ 8$

Status loss PnL -0.16% / -0.21$ MAE -2.07% MFE +0.00% 0.0R expires 02 Oct 23:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 173241)

#78 / 84

seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 20:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1980

Quality Score

0.454

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#78 / 84

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-3

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.87 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#78 / 84

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.87 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.30×ATR
4h	clear	1.81×ATR
1d	clear	3.43×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_score (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

alts

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_score (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

LOW

seuil : ≥ +3

Local 4h

N/A

attendu : bearish

Median return 4h

1.41

attendu : < -1.5

Décision V6

N/A

regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

10.0M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 20:02

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 02/10 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 02/10 18:00 Score : 0 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2)

02/10 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

02/10 18:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4697

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.55	expansion -1
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	transition

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 0.97

Transition risk : 0.03

Score contribution (this trade) -3

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 58.5%

Macro broad_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : alts

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	49.2%
1h	86.2%
4h	81.5%
24h	27.7%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	47.7%	+0.00%
4h	76.9%	+1.41%
24h	36.9%	-1.04%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.134

Universe : 65 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.98

Snapshot évalué : 02/10 20:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4932

Score SMA

0.5828

Rank

#55 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2895

Rank Norm SMA

0.3979

Calculé le

01/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.7019	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.73% · r3d: -0.15% · ema21_slope: 1.5765% · dist_ema21: 4.529%
Force Relative	25%	0.4336	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -3.20% · rs_3d: -1.80% · beta_24h: 1.532
Volume	20%	0.2606	rvol_20: 0.52× · zscore_50: -0.447 · trend: 14.92%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8144	ADX: 37.7 (trend) · Chop: 37.3 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 9.465% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4537

Score SMA

0.5177

Rank

#78 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1980

Rank Norm SMA

0.4510

Calculé le

02/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3700	r1h: 0.677% · r4h: 0.836% · r1d: -5.58% · r3d: -10.46% · ema21_slope: -0.3600% · dist_ema21: -4.378%
Force Relative	25%	0.3823	rs_1h: 0.722% · rs_4h: 0.598% · rs_1d: -5.16% · rs_3d: -11.50% · beta_24h: 2.836
Volume	20%	0.2216	rvol_20: 0.17× · zscore_50: -0.449 · trend: -11.34%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7634	ADX: 31.6 (trend) · Chop: 22.7 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.132% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.3306

Score SMA

0.5140

Rank

#81 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1926

Rank Norm SMA

0.4297

Calculé le

02/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3614	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.836% · r1d: -5.58% · r3d: -10.46% · ema21_slope: -0.1778% · dist_ema21: -6.773%
Force Relative	25%	0.2651	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.598% · rs_1d: -5.16% · rs_3d: -11.50% · beta_24h: 3.118
Volume	20%	0.2384	rvol_20: 0.48× · zscore_50: -0.747 · trend: 16.15%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5918	ADX: 26.3 (trend) · Chop: 53.9 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.3797	ATR%: 4.861% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -5.874% (0.0005)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-2.074%	0.4R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.000%	0.0R	-2.074%	0.4R	0.0×	24
3h ★	+0.000%	0.0R	-2.074%	0.4R	0.0×	36
4h	+0.191%	0.0R	-2.074%	0.4R	0.1×	48
8h	+0.437%	0.1R	-2.074%	0.4R	0.2×	96
12h	+0.437%	0.1R	-2.388%	0.4R	0.2×	144
24h	+0.437%	0.1R	-4.248%	0.7R	0.1×	288
48h	+0.437%	0.1R	-8.205%	1.4R	0.1×	576
72h	+0.437%	0.1R	-12.667%	2.2R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 284 min MAE in 874 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.08

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	near -0.2ATR	0.72	bull_high	+13.92%	+0.94	30/09 20:00
4h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	51%	noisy_chop 37%	late	—	—	0.57	bull_high	+1.76%	-0.79	02/10 12:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	strong	fading	expansion_after_compression	bear_high	53%	noisy_chop 44%	late	—	—	0.56	range_medium	+0.05%	-0.59	02/10 18:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	fading	compression	bear_high	57%	noisy_chop 41%	mid	—	—	0.67	range_low	-0.65%	+0.16	02/10 19:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #197668	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	0.681	volatile_reversal	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 37%	early 16b 0.4ATR	—	near -0.2ATR	0.52	65%	↑ +0.89	below_value	-2.56	—	#105815	0.72	bull_high	+13.92%	+0.94	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 20:24
4h #205773	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	0.482	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	51%	noisy_chop 37%	late 2b -1.8ATR	—	—	3.55	97%	↔ +0.02	below_value	-4.94	—	#109335	0.57	bull_high	+1.76%	-0.79	02/10 12:00 upd 02/10 16:18
1h anchor #207031	↓ down	range	range	strong	fading	0.711	expansion_after_compression	bear_high	53%	noisy_chop 44%	late 9b -2.4ATR	—	—	0.49	53%	↔ +0.11	below_value	-5.36	—	#109930	0.56	range_medium	+0.05%	-0.59	02/10 18:00 upd 02/10 19:11
15m #207369	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	fading	0.716	compression	bear_high	57%	noisy_chop 41%	mid 12b 0.1ATR	—	—	0.15	21%	↓ -0.86	below_value	-5.36	—	#109930	0.67	range_low	-0.65%	+0.16	02/10 19:45 upd 02/10 20:03
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	16b	—	3.113×ATR	p21	+0.381×ATR	p21
4h	↓ down	late	2b	—	2.778×ATR	p19	-1.803×ATR	p80
1h	↓ down	late	9b	—	5.861×ATR	p100	-2.44×ATR	p96
15m	↑ up	mid	12b	—	3.178×ATR	p69	+0.143×ATR	p9

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.00944517
atr: 0.00017472
expires_at: 2026-10-03T03:15:08+00:00

Details

rank: 81
total: 84
score: 0.3475
confidence: 0.964

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.008921	0.009445			0.004845

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.008921
Stop Loss: 0.009445
Take Profit:

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.009445 - 0.008921 = 0.000524
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.008921 - = 0.008921
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.008921 / 0.000524 = 17.0248

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
136.1543	100	15262.2241	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.000524

Taille de position = 8 / 0.000524 = 15267.18

Taille de position USD = 15267.18 x 0.008921 = 136.2

Donc, tu peux acheter 15267.18 avec un stoploss a 0.009445

Avec un position size USD de 136.2$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 15267.18 x 0.000524 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 15267.18 x 0.008921 = 136.2

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 136.2$

Résumé

Taille de position 15267.18
Taille de position USD 136.2
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 136.2
Risk-Reward Ratio 17.0248

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
100 %	136.15 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
5.87 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-0.21 $	-0.16

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.0738 %	35.31 %	0

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.008921	0.009445			0.004845

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.008921
Stop Loss: 0.009445
Take Profit:

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.009445 - 0.008921 = 0.000524
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.008921 - = 0.008921
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.008921 / 0.000524 = 17.0248

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -5.874% (0.0005)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-2.074%	0.4R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.000%	0.0R	-2.074%	0.4R	0.0×	24
3h ★	+0.000%	0.0R	-2.074%	0.4R	0.0×	36
4h	+0.191%	0.0R	-2.074%	0.4R	0.1×	48
8h	+0.437%	0.1R	-2.074%	0.4R	0.2×	96
12h	+0.437%	0.1R	-2.388%	0.4R	0.2×	144
24h	+0.437%	0.1R	-4.248%	0.7R	0.1×	288
48h	+0.437%	0.1R	-8.205%	1.4R	0.1×	576
72h	+0.437%	0.1R	-12.667%	2.2R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 284 min MAE in 874 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.