Short Trade on PENGU

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02 Oct 2026 at 23:15:07 hyperliquid

Short Trade on PENGU (momentum_rotation_score)

With 16228.17 PENGU at 0.00895$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 0.009439 (5.51 %)

PENGU SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 23:15 → 02:10 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.008946$

Qty 16228.168 PENGU

Size 145.1772$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 145.18$

SL 0.009439 (-5.51%)

SL $ 8$

Status loss PnL -0.01% / -0.016$ MAE -0.48% MFE +0.72% 0.1R expires 03 Oct 02:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 173660)

#74 / 82

seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 23:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1236

Quality Score

0.446

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#74 / 82

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-3

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.51 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#74 / 82

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.51 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.15×ATR
4h	clear	2.05×ATR
1d	clear	1.64×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	mid	OK
4h	↓ down	mid	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_score (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

alts

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_score (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

LOW

seuil : ≥ +3

Local 4h

N/A

attendu : bearish

Median return 4h

1.38

attendu : < -1.5

Décision V6

N/A

regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

9.6M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 23:01

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 01/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/10 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 02/10 22:00 Score : 0 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

01/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

02/10 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

02/10 22:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4709

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.55	expansion -1
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	compression

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 0.97

Transition risk : 0.03

Score contribution (this trade) -3

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 70.6%

Macro broad_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : alts

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	37.3%
1h	65.7%
4h	89.6%
24h	31.3%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	37.3%	-0.01%
4h	85.1%	+1.38%
24h	37.3%	-1.13%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.190

Universe : 67 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.98

Snapshot évalué : 02/10 23:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4088

Score SMA

0.5418

Rank

#79 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0602

Rank Norm SMA

0.3201

Calculé le

02/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4755	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -5.58% · r3d: -10.46% · ema21_slope: 1.2685% · dist_ema21: -1.183%
Force Relative	25%	0.2422	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -5.16% · rs_3d: -11.50% · beta_24h: 1.532
Volume	20%	0.4460	rvol_20: 1.23× · zscore_50: 0.467 · trend: 23.48%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7762	ADX: 36.8 (trend) · Chop: 41.9 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 10.478% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 23:00

Score brut

0.4458

Score SMA

0.5148

Rank

#74 / 82

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1236

Rank Norm SMA

0.4410

Calculé le

02/10/2026 23:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2934	r1h: -0.490% · r4h: 0.824% · r1d: -6.52% · r3d: -10.00% · ema21_slope: -0.4488% · dist_ema21: -3.342%
Force Relative	25%	0.3294	rs_1h: -0.445% · rs_4h: 0.773% · rs_1d: -5.81% · rs_3d: -11.46% · beta_24h: 2.881
Volume	20%	0.1672	rvol_20: 0.13× · zscore_50: -0.492 · trend: -54.37%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7606	ADX: 31.3 (trend) · Chop: 24.1 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.001% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.3491

Score SMA

0.5144

Rank

#83 / 85

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1926

Rank Norm SMA

0.4294

Calculé le

02/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3614	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.836% · r1d: -5.58% · r3d: -10.46% · ema21_slope: -0.1778% · dist_ema21: -6.773%
Force Relative	25%	0.2651	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.598% · rs_1d: -5.16% · rs_3d: -11.50% · beta_24h: 3.118
Volume	20%	0.2384	rvol_20: 0.48× · zscore_50: -0.747 · trend: 16.15%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5918	ADX: 26.3 (trend) · Chop: 53.9 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.3797	ATR%: 4.861% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -5.511% (0.0005)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.470%	0.1R	-0.414%	0.1R	1.1×	12
2h	+0.715%	0.1R	-0.414%	0.1R	1.7×	24
3h ★	+0.715%	0.1R	-0.481%	0.1R	1.5×	36
4h	+0.715%	0.1R	-0.760%	0.1R	0.9×	48
8h	+0.715%	0.1R	-2.012%	0.4R	0.4×	96
12h	+0.715%	0.1R	-3.957%	0.7R	0.2×	144
24h	+0.715%	0.1R	-3.957%	0.7R	0.2×	288
48h	+0.715%	0.1R	-11.212%	2.0R	0.1×	576
72h	+0.715%	0.1R	-12.352%	2.2R	0.1×	864

⏱ MFE in 104 min MAE in 694 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 1.58

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	volatile_reversal	bull_high	53%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	near 0.4ATR	0.72	bull_high	+13.14%	+0.83	01/10 20:00
4h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	normal	bear_high	52%	noisy_chop 38%	mid	—	—	0.57	bull_high	+1.96%	-0.78	02/10 16:00
1h	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	strong	explosive	expansion	bear_high	59%	noisy_chop 49%	mid	—	—	0.55	range_medium	+0.09%	-0.71	02/10 22:00
15m	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_medium	59%	noisy_chop 43%	mid	near 0.3ATR	—	0.67	range_low	-0.44%	+0.12	02/10 22:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #207694	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	0.644	volatile_reversal	bull_high	53%	noisy_chop 37%	early 9b -0.1ATR	—	near 0.4ATR	1.23	90%	↑ +0.83	below_value	-5.22	—	#110100	0.72	bull_high	+13.14%	+0.83	01/10 20:00 upd 02/10 20:26
4h #207569	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	0.488	normal	bear_high	52%	noisy_chop 38%	mid 3b -1.7ATR	—	—	0.48	52%	↔ +0.04	below_value	-5.22	—	#110100	0.57	bull_high	+1.96%	-0.78	02/10 16:00 upd 02/10 20:21
1h anchor #208889	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	strong	explosive	0.270	expansion	bear_high	59%	noisy_chop 49%	mid 8b -1.5ATR	—	—	0.13	7%	↓ -0.28	below_value	-5.49	—	#110690	0.55	range_medium	+0.09%	-0.71	02/10 22:00 upd 02/10 23:11
15m #208806	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	0.532	compression	bear_medium	59%	noisy_chop 43%	mid 6b -0.9ATR	near 0.3ATR	—	0.42	29%	↓ -0.69	below_value	-5.08	—	#110524	0.67	range_low	-0.44%	+0.12	02/10 22:45 upd 02/10 23:03
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	9b	—	2.405×ATR	p0	-0.095×ATR	p4
4h	↓ down	mid	3b	—	2.704×ATR	p19	-1.657×ATR	p75
1h	↑ up	mid	8b	—	1.689×ATR	p15	-1.473×ATR	p78
15m	↓ down	mid	6b	—	2.857×ATR	p60	-0.865×ATR	p41

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.00943897
atr: 0.00016432
expires_at: 2026-10-03T06:15:07+00:00

Details

rank: 81
total: 84
score: 0.337
confidence: 0.964

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.008946	0.009439			0.004877

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.008946
Stop Loss: 0.009439
Take Profit:

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.009439 - 0.008946 = 0.000493
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.008946 - = 0.008946
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.008946 / 0.000493 = 18.146

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
145.1772	100	16228.168	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.000493

Taille de position = 8 / 0.000493 = 16227.18

Taille de position USD = 16227.18 x 0.008946 = 145.17

Donc, tu peux acheter 16227.18 avec un stoploss a 0.009439

Avec un position size USD de 145.17$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 16227.18 x 0.000493 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 16227.18 x 0.008946 = 145.17

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 145.17$

Résumé

Taille de position 16227.18
Taille de position USD 145.17
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 145.17
Risk-Reward Ratio 18.146

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
100 %	145.18 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
5.51 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-0.016 $	-0.01

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-0.4807 %	8.72 %	6

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.008946	0.009439			0.004877

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.008946
Stop Loss: 0.009439
Take Profit:

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.009439 - 0.008946 = 0.000493
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.008946 - = 0.008946
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.008946 / 0.000493 = 18.146

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -5.511% (0.0005)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.470%	0.1R	-0.414%	0.1R	1.1×	12
2h	+0.715%	0.1R	-0.414%	0.1R	1.7×	24
3h ★	+0.715%	0.1R	-0.481%	0.1R	1.5×	36
4h	+0.715%	0.1R	-0.760%	0.1R	0.9×	48
8h	+0.715%	0.1R	-2.012%	0.4R	0.4×	96
12h	+0.715%	0.1R	-3.957%	0.7R	0.2×	144
24h	+0.715%	0.1R	-3.957%	0.7R	0.2×	288
48h	+0.715%	0.1R	-11.212%	2.0R	0.1×	576
72h	+0.715%	0.1R	-12.352%	2.2R	0.1×	864

⏱ MFE in 104 min MAE in 694 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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