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Short Trade on FARTCOIN

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03 Oct 2026 at 02:13:15 hyperliquid

Short Trade on FARTCOIN (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1757.3 FARTCOIN at 0.174$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1624 (6.56 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1783 (2.59 %)

FARTCOIN SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 03 Oct 2026 02:13 → 11:55 · 9 hours

Position

Entry 0.1738$

Qty 1757.3032 FARTCOIN

Size 305.349$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 0.1624 (+6.56%)

TP $ 20.03$

SL 0.1783 (-2.59%)

SL $ 7.91$

RR 2.53

Status loss PnL -2.59% / -7.91$ MAE -3.86% MFE +1.17% 0.5R expires 03 Oct 14:13

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 173986)
#70 / 80
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/10/2026 02:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4440

Quality Score
0.435
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#70 / 80
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-2
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-5
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.59 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#70 / 80
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-5
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.59 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 1.73×ATR
4h near 0.18×ATR
1d clear 1.31×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down early OK
4h ↓ down early OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
14.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/10 02:02
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

01/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : range_high (0)

02/10 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

03/10 01:00

Score : -2 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4721
Voir snapshot →
bull developing bull_expansion
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

-2

Operational bull

0.55

expansion

-1

Tactical range

0.25

transition

0

Micro range

0.25

compression

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 0.97
Transition risk : 0.03
Score contribution (this trade) -3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 30.1%
Macro btc_led_risk_on
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 48.4%
1h 88.7%
4h 30.7%
24h 14.5%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 46.8% +0.00%
4h 30.7% -0.22%
24h 37.1% -2.77%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.099
Universe : 62 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.98
Snapshot évalué : 03/10 02:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4295
Score SMA
0.4630
Rank
#76 / 84
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0964
Rank Norm SMA
0.1160
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5690 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.70% · r3d: -1.05% · ema21_slope: 0.6379% · dist_ema21: 1.464%
Force Relative 25% 0.4446 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 1.12% · rs_3d: -2.08% · beta_24h: 2.286
Volume 20% 0.3173 rvol_20: 1.00× · zscore_50: -0.234 · trend: -10.10%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5613 ADX: 21.7 (weak) · Chop: 53.0 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 10.330% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 03/10/2026 02:00
Score brut
0.4347
Score SMA
0.5102
Rank
#70 / 80
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4440
Rank Norm SMA
0.4296
Calculé le
03/10/2026 02:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3373 r1h: -0.223% · r4h: -1.432% · r1d: -6.75% · r3d: -3.01% · ema21_slope: -0.2634% · dist_ema21: -2.016%
Force Relative 25% 0.3564 rs_1h: -0.285% · rs_4h: -1.427% · rs_1d: -5.15% · rs_3d: -4.52% · beta_24h: 3.565
Volume 20% 0.1579 rvol_20: 0.22× · zscore_50: -0.631 · trend: -65.54%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6622 ADX: 21.4 (weak) · Chop: 40.1 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.933% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 03/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4235
Score SMA
0.4546
Rank
#67 / 82
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2414
Rank Norm SMA
0.2390
Calculé le
03/10/2026 00:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5171 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.573% · r1d: -0.95% · r3d: -0.70% · ema21_slope: -0.0035% · dist_ema21: -1.083%
Force Relative 25% 0.4015 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.780% · rs_1d: 0.02% · rs_3d: -2.36% · beta_24h: 2.635
Volume 20% 0.1801 rvol_20: 0.37× · zscore_50: -0.971 · trend: -16.40%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5038 ADX: 17.0 (weak) · Chop: 55.2 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.5637 ATR%: 4.309% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.589% (0.0045)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.506% 0.2R -0.386% 0.2R 1.3× 12
2h +1.174% 0.5R -0.386% 0.2R 3.0× 24
4h +1.174% 0.5R -1.007% 0.4R 1.2× 48
8h +1.174% 0.5R -1.444% 0.6R 0.8× 96
12h ★ +1.174% 0.5R -3.855% 1.5R 0.3× 144
24h +1.174% 0.5R -3.855% 1.5R 0.3× 288
36h +1.174% 0.5R -3.855% 1.5R 0.3× 432
48h +1.174% 0.5R -8.516% 3.3R 0.1× 576
72h +6.168% 2.4R -10.236% 4.0R 0.6× 864
⏱ MFE in 106 min MAE in 666 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 2.94
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral transition bearish_transition moderate grind expansion bull_high
64%
noisy_chop 36% early — near -0.2ATR 0.65 bull_high +13.14% +0.85 01/10 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate fading compression range_high
36%
noisy_chop 33% early near 0.2ATR — 0.59 bull_high +2.13% -0.21 02/10 20:00
1h ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_high
60%
noisy_chop 49% early — — 0.57 range_medium +0.12% -0.51 03/10 01:00
15m ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_medium
58%
noisy_chop 42% late — — 0.65 range_low -0.31% -0.17 03/10 01:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#207696
 ↔ neutral transition bearish_transition moderate grind 0.697 expansion bull_high
64%
noisy_chop 36% early 9b 0.1ATR — near -0.2ATR 1.00 63% ↑ +0.43 above_value -0.22 — #110101 0.65 bull_high +13.14% +0.85
01/10 20:00
upd 02/10 20:26
4h
#209374
 ↔ neutral range range moderate fading 0.496 compression range_high
36%
noisy_chop 33% early 3b -0.3ATR near 0.2ATR — 0.37 13% ↔ +0.09 above_value -0.27 — #110855 0.59 bull_high +2.13% -0.21
02/10 20:00
upd 03/10 00:17
1h anchor
#210184
 ↓ down range range moderate grind 0.378 compression bear_high
60%
noisy_chop 49% early 5b -1.0ATR — — 0.22 15% ↓ -0.78 above_value -0.89 — #111261 0.57 range_medium +0.12% -0.51
03/10 01:00
upd 03/10 02:12
15m
#210105
 ↓ down range range moderate grind 0.380 compression bear_medium
58%
noisy_chop 42% late 22b -1.4ATR — — 0.75 24% ↑ +0.25 above_value -0.94 — #111099 0.65 range_low -0.31% -0.17
03/10 01:45
upd 03/10 02:03
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 9b — 2.232×ATR p0 +0.124×ATR p8
4h ↓ down early 3b — 1.966×ATR p0 -0.279×ATR p20
1h ↓ down early 5b — 1.637×ATR p7 -0.989×ATR p59
15m ↓ down late 22b — 4.703×ATR p89 -1.435×ATR p75

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.7477
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.16×ATR dur=65b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
  4. stop_price: 0.17831243
  5. tp_price: 0.16237893
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.84766
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-03T18:13:07.781578
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.84766
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : 0.3304
  10. obi_top10 : 0.3305
  11. micro_price : 0.17352399
  12. spread_pct : 0.04611
  13. mid_price : 0.17354
  14. bid_wall_price : 0.172
  15. bid_wall_size : 3041407.94
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price : 0.174
  18. ask_wall_size : 1662649.72
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : 0.3293
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0007
  23. pressure_side : bid
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 7093
  26. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    0.181445
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    0.17454
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    0.1779925
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1790776800
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1791007200
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    2.1583
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    65
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: stretched
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.8477
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1791003600
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    0.17454
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.6154
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    1
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.2438
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    4
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    13
  54. regime : bear_high
  55. atr_entry : 0.0031993
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
65
inside_close_ratio
0.6154
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2438

Signaux confirmants (12)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 02:13 0.17376000 -0.023%
2 02:23 0.17376000 -0.023%
3 02:33 0.17376000 -0.023%
4 02:42 0.17370000 -0.058%
5 02:51 0.17370000 -0.058%
6 03:00 0.17370000 -0.058%
7 03:11 0.17322000 -0.334%
8 03:20 0.17322000 -0.334%
9 03:29 0.17322000 -0.334%
10 03:40 0.17325000 -0.316%
11 03:50 0.17325000 -0.316%
12 03:59 0.17325000 -0.316%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↑ bid ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7093ms Confidence avant OB : 85% → 75%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.330
avg 0.329 ± 0.001
OBI Top 10 0.331

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.1735
Micro Price
0.1735
Spread
0.0461%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.1720
Size
3,041,407.94

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.1740
Size
1,662,649.72

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.1738 0.1783 0.1624 2.53 0.09172
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.1738
  • Stop Loss: 0.1783
  • Take Profit: 0.1624

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.1783 - 0.1738 = 0.0045

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.1738 - 0.1624 = 0.0114

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0114 / 0.0045 = 2.5333

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
305.349 100 1757.3032 3.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0045

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0045 = 1777.78

Taille de position USD = 1777.78 x 0.1738 = 308.98

Donc, tu peux acheter 1777.78 avec un stoploss a 0.1783

Avec un position size USD de 308.98$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1777.78 x 0.0045 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1777.78 x 0.0114 = 20.27

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.27$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1777.78
  • Taille de position USD 308.98
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.27
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5333

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
6.56 % 20.03 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.59 % 7.91 $
PNL PNL %
-7.91 $ -2.59
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-2.733 % 105.55 % 18
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.1738 0.1783 0.1624 2.53 0.09172
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.1738
  • Stop Loss: 0.1783
  • Take Profit: 0.1624

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.1783 - 0.1738 = 0.0045

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.1738 - 0.1624 = 0.0114

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0114 / 0.0045 = 2.5333

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.589% (0.0045)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.506% 0.2R -0.386% 0.2R 1.3× 12
2h +1.174% 0.5R -0.386% 0.2R 3.0× 24
4h +1.174% 0.5R -1.007% 0.4R 1.2× 48
8h +1.174% 0.5R -1.444% 0.6R 0.8× 96
12h ★ +1.174% 0.5R -3.855% 1.5R 0.3× 144
24h +1.174% 0.5R -3.855% 1.5R 0.3× 288
36h +1.174% 0.5R -3.855% 1.5R 0.3× 432
48h +1.174% 0.5R -8.516% 3.3R 0.1× 576
72h +6.168% 2.4R -10.236% 4.0R 0.6× 864
⏱ MFE in 106 min MAE in 666 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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