Short Trade on TAO (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 0.74 TAO at 290.31$ per unit. Take profit: 283.0523 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 301.1753 (3.74 %)
03 Oct 2026 at 02:15:15
hyperliquid
TAO
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
03 Oct 2026 02:15
→ 08:15
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 290.31$
Qty 0.7363 TAO
Size 213.7515$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 283.0523 (+2.5%)
TP $ 5.34$
SL 301.1753 (-3.74%)
SL $ 8$
RR 0.67
Status
win
PnL
0.00%
/ +0.0074$
MAE -0.66%
MFE +0.80%
0.2R
expires
03 Oct 08:15
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 173972)
#71 / 80
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/10/2026 02:00
score du 03/10/2026 02:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2822
Quality Score
0.435
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#71 / 80
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
93 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-2
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-5
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.74 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#71 / 80
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
93 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-5
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.74 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.56×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.43×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.13×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
-3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
btc
OK
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
N/A
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
N/A
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
-3
LOW
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
N/A
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-0.22
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
N/A
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
24.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/10 02:01
03/10 02:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 01/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 02/10 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/10 01:00 Score : -2 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4721
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
-2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.55 |
expansion
-1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
compression
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.97
Transition risk :
0.03
Score contribution (this trade)
-3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
30.1%
Macro
btc_led_risk_on
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 48.4% |
| 1h | 88.7% |
| 4h | 30.7% |
| 24h | 14.5% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 46.8% | +0.00% |
| 4h | 30.7% | -0.22% |
| 24h | 37.1% | -2.77% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.099
Universe :
62
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
0.98
Snapshot évalué :
03/10 02:01
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4750
Score SMA
0.5878
Rank
#62
/ 84
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2651
Rank Norm SMA
0.4811
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6148 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -3.77% · r3d: -2.80% · ema21_slope: 1.2641% · dist_ema21: 2.722% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4755 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -3.35% · rs_3d: -3.83% · beta_24h: 2.341 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3068 | rvol_20: 0.71× · zscore_50: -0.002 · trend: 4.50% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7358 | ADX: 34.1 (trend) · Chop: 44.1 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 7.832% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
03/10/2026 02:00
Score brut
0.4345
Score SMA
0.5230
Rank
#71
/ 80
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2822
Rank Norm SMA
0.4759
Calculé le
03/10/2026 02:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3172 | r1h: -0.028% · r4h: -1.481% · r1d: -5.99% · r3d: -4.65% · ema21_slope: -0.3271% · dist_ema21: -1.968% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3593 | rs_1h: -0.089% · rs_4h: -1.476% · rs_1d: -4.39% · rs_3d: -6.16% · beta_24h: 2.540 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1625 | rvol_20: 0.15× · zscore_50: -0.562 · trend: -62.00% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6966 | ADX: 23.6 (weak) · Chop: 32.0 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.575% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
03/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4297
Score SMA
0.5211
Rank
#66
/ 82
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2178
Rank Norm SMA
0.4279
Calculé le
03/10/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4992 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.075% · r1d: -5.02% · r3d: -2.79% · ema21_slope: -0.0986% · dist_ema21: -3.477% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3642 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.132% · rs_1d: -4.06% · rs_3d: -4.46% · beta_24h: 2.299 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1597 | rvol_20: 0.48× · zscore_50: -1.015 · trend: -29.45% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5015 | ADX: 15.1 (weak) · Chop: 53.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.8170 | ATR%: 3.549% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -3.743%
(10.8653)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.276% | 0.1R | -0.231% | 0.1R | 1.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.658% | 0.2R | -0.231% | 0.1R | 2.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.796% | 0.2R | -0.486% | 0.1R | 1.6× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.796% | 0.2R | -0.665% | 0.2R | 1.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +0.796% | 0.2R | -0.665% | 0.2R | 1.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.796% | 0.2R | -2.015% | 0.5R | 0.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.796% | 0.2R | -6.982% | 1.9R | 0.1× | 288 |
| 48h | +0.796% | 0.2R | -6.982% | 1.9R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.796% | 0.2R | -6.982% | 1.9R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 159 min
MAE in 1189 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 2.84
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
69%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early | — | near 0.2ATR | 0.64 | bull_high | +13.14% | +0.88 | 01/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | range_high |
32%
|
noisy_chop 34% | mid | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.53 | bull_high | +2.13% | -0.46 | 02/10 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 50% | mid | — | — | 0.57 | range_medium | +0.12% | -0.48 | 03/10 01:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_medium |
60%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | — | — | 0.69 | range_low | -0.31% | -0.09 | 03/10 01:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#207647
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.727 | expansion | bull_high |
69%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early 6b 0.3ATR | — | near 0.2ATR | 0.71 | 72% | ↑ +0.50 | below_value | -2.43 | — | #110086 | 0.64 | bull_high | +13.14% | +0.88 |
01/10 20:00
upd 02/10 20:24
|
|
4h
#209329
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.412 | compression | range_high |
32%
|
noisy_chop 34% | mid 3b -1.1ATR | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.48 | 27% | ↔ -0.13 | below_value | -2.59 | — | #110840 | 0.53 | bull_high | +2.13% | -0.46 |
02/10 20:00
upd 03/10 00:15
|
|
1h
anchor #210170
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | 0.329 | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 50% | mid 11b -1.1ATR | — | — | 0.15 | 2% | ↓ -0.61 | below_value | -3.12 | — | #111247 | 0.57 | range_medium | +0.12% | -0.48 |
03/10 01:00
upd 03/10 02:11
|
|
15m
#210093
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.410 | compression | bear_medium |
60%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid 14b -0.8ATR | — | — | 0.21 | 2% | ↓ -0.57 | below_value | -2.99 | — | #111085 | 0.69 | range_low | -0.31% | -0.09 |
03/10 01:45
upd 03/10 02:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 2.162×ATR | p0 | +0.281×ATR | p15 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 2.366×ATR | p17 | -1.122×ATR | p61 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 11b | — | 1.92×ATR | p33 | -1.12×ATR | p66 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 14b | — | 3.368×ATR | p67 | -0.796×ATR | p55 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 301.17532501
- tp_price: 283.05225
- atr: 4.34613
- expires_at: 2026-10-03T12:15:15+00:00
Details
- rank: 76
- total: 82
- score: 0.3368
- delta_2h: -0.0202
- extension_atr: -1.25
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.2822
- confidence: 0.926
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:15 | 290.31000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 04:15 | 289.49000000 | -0.282% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 290.31 | 301.1753 | 283.0523 | 0.67 | 192.4 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 290.31
- Stop Loss: 301.1753
- Take Profit: 283.0523
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 301.1753 - 290.31 = 10.8653
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 290.31 - 283.0523 = 7.2577
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 7.2577 / 10.8653 = 0.668
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 213.7515 | 100 | 0.7363 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 10.8653
Taille de position = 8 / 10.8653 = 0.74
Taille de position USD = 0.74 x 290.31 = 214.83
Donc, tu peux acheter 0.74 avec un stoploss a 301.1753
Avec un position size USD de 214.83$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 0.74 x 10.8653 = 8.04
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.04$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 0.74 x 7.2577 = 5.37
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 5.37$
Résumé
- Taille de position 0.74
- Taille de position USD 214.83
- Perte potentielle 8.04
- Gain potentiel 5.37
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.668
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 5.34 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.74 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 0.0074 $ | 0.00 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.6648 % | 17.76 % | 16 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 290.31 | 301.1753 | 283.0523 | 0.67 | 192.4 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 290.31
- Stop Loss: 301.1753
- Take Profit: 283.0523
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 301.1753 - 290.31 = 10.8653
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 290.31 - 283.0523 = 7.2577
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 7.2577 / 10.8653 = 0.668
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -3.743%
(10.8653)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.276% | 0.1R | -0.231% | 0.1R | 1.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.658% | 0.2R | -0.231% | 0.1R | 2.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.796% | 0.2R | -0.486% | 0.1R | 1.6× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.796% | 0.2R | -0.665% | 0.2R | 1.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +0.796% | 0.2R | -0.665% | 0.2R | 1.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.796% | 0.2R | -2.015% | 0.5R | 0.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.796% | 0.2R | -6.982% | 1.9R | 0.1× | 288 |
| 48h | +0.796% | 0.2R | -6.982% | 1.9R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.796% | 0.2R | -6.982% | 1.9R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 159 min
MAE in 1189 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.