Short Trade on kBONK

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03 Oct 2026 at 04:15:06 hyperliquid

Short Trade on kBONK (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 61771.29 kBONK at 0.00361$ per unit. Take profit: 0.003517 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.003737 (3.6 %)

kBONK SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 03 Oct 2026 04:15 → 10:10 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.003607$

Qty 61771.2918 kBONK

Size 222.809$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.003517 (+2.5%)

TP $ 5.56$

SL 0.003737 (-3.6%)

SL $ 8.03$

RR 0.69

Status loss PnL -1.58% / -3.52$ MAE -2.55% MFE +0.22% 0.1R expires 03 Oct 10:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 174126)

#76 / 80

seuil : top 15
score du 03/10/2026 04:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2112

Quality Score

0.390

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#76 / 80

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

93 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-3

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-7

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.60 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#76 / 80

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

93 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-7

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.60 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	0.15×ATR
4h	near	0.24×ATR
1d	clear	2.30×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↓ down	early	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

btc

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

LOW

seuil : ≥ +3

Local 4h

N/A

attendu : bearish

Median return 4h

-0.61

attendu : < -1.5

Décision V6

N/A

regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

2.6M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
03/10 04:01

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 01/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 03/10 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/10 03:00 Score : -4 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

01/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

03/10 00:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

03/10 03:00

Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4729

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.55	expansion -1
Tactical	range 0.25	transition 0
Micro	range 0.25	compression

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 0.97

Transition risk : 0.03

Score contribution (this trade) -3

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 19.5%

Macro btc_led_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : btc

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	70.0%
1h	16.7%
4h	16.7%
24h	16.7%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	78.3%	+0.06%
4h	20.0%	-0.61%
24h	28.3%	-4.06%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.082

Universe : 60 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.98

Snapshot évalué : 03/10 04:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5127

Score SMA

0.6019

Rank

#49 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4217

Rank Norm SMA

0.5394

Calculé le

02/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.7000	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -3.38% · r3d: -0.19% · ema21_slope: 1.4138% · dist_ema21: 6.354%
Force Relative	25%	0.4942	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.96% · rs_3d: -1.22% · beta_24h: 1.891
Volume	20%	0.3374	rvol_20: 0.75× · zscore_50: -0.018 · trend: 23.66%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7445	ADX: 34.4 (trend) · Chop: 43.4 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 9.137% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 03/10/2026 04:00

Score brut

0.3897

Score SMA

0.5358

Rank

#76 / 80

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2112

Rank Norm SMA

0.5282

Calculé le

03/10/2026 04:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2986	r1h: -0.633% · r4h: -1.015% · r1d: -8.28% · r3d: -5.12% · ema21_slope: -0.2540% · dist_ema21: -1.809%
Force Relative	25%	0.3196	rs_1h: -0.621% · rs_4h: -0.863% · rs_1d: -6.49% · rs_3d: -6.65% · beta_24h: 2.874
Volume	20%	0.1476	rvol_20: 0.14× · zscore_50: -0.787 · trend: -81.47%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5927	ADX: 21.9 (weak) · Chop: 49.3 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.506% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 03/10/2026 04:00

Score brut

0.4162

Score SMA

0.5536

Rank

#55 / 80

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3291

Rank Norm SMA

0.5780

Calculé le

03/10/2026 04:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4826	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.015% · r1d: -8.28% · r3d: -5.12% · ema21_slope: 0.0082% · dist_ema21: -2.905%
Force Relative	25%	0.3279	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.863% · rs_1d: -6.49% · rs_3d: -6.65% · beta_24h: 1.788
Volume	20%	0.1362	rvol_20: 0.11× · zscore_50: -0.958 · trend: -57.09%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5334	ADX: 22.2 (weak) · Chop: 57.0 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.7447	ATR%: 3.766% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -3.604% (0.0001)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.222%	0.1R	-0.555%	0.2R	0.4×	12
2h	+0.222%	0.1R	-1.054%	0.3R	0.2×	24
4h	+0.222%	0.1R	-2.412%	0.7R	0.1×	48
6h ★	+0.222%	0.1R	-2.551%	0.7R	0.1×	72
8h	+0.222%	0.1R	-4.990%	1.4R	0.0×	96
12h	+0.222%	0.1R	-7.375%	2.1R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.222%	0.1R	-8.373%	2.3R	0.0×	288
48h	+0.222%	0.1R	-13.280%	3.7R	0.0×	576
72h	+0.222%	0.1R	-13.280%	3.7R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 14 min MAE in 1374 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.21

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	range	range	strong	explosive	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	67%	noisy_chop 39%	early	—	near 0.5ATR	0.67	bull_high	+13.14%	+0.94	01/10 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	compression	bull_high	57%	noisy_chop 40%	early	near 0.2ATR	—	0.58	bull_high	+1.93%	-0.19	03/10 00:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	fading	compression	bear_high	59%	noisy_chop 47%	mid	near 0.1ATR	—	0.55	range_medium	+0.04%	-0.43	03/10 03:00
15m	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_medium	59%	noisy_chop 44%	late	—	—	0.59	range_low	-0.35%	-0.06	03/10 03:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #207613	↑ up	range	range	strong	explosive	0.785	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	67%	noisy_chop 39%	early 9b 0.6ATR	—	near 0.5ATR	0.75	79%	↑ +0.82	value	-1.62	—	#110078	0.67	bull_high	+13.14%	+0.94	01/10 20:00 upd 02/10 20:23
4h #211004	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	0.618	compression	bull_high	57%	noisy_chop 40%	early 6b -0.9ATR	near 0.2ATR	—	0.11	11%	↓ -0.65	value	-2.54	—	#111565	0.58	bull_high	+1.93%	-0.19	03/10 00:00 upd 03/10 04:14
1h anchor #211003	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	fading	0.609	compression	bear_high	59%	noisy_chop 47%	mid 6b -1.2ATR	near 0.1ATR	—	0.14	5%	↓ -0.91	value	-2.54	—	#111565	0.55	range_medium	+0.04%	-0.43	03/10 03:00 upd 03/10 04:14
15m #210891	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	0.642	compression	bear_medium	59%	noisy_chop 44%	late 26b -1.2ATR	—	—	0.42	9%	↓ -0.53	value	-2.05	—	#111402	0.59	range_low	-0.35%	-0.06	03/10 03:45 upd 03/10 04:02
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	9b	—	1.744×ATR	p0	+0.578×ATR	p25
4h	↓ down	early	6b	—	2.685×ATR	p30	-0.869×ATR	p52
1h	↓ down	mid	6b	—	1.6×ATR	p6	-1.154×ATR	p69
15m	↓ down	late	26b	—	4.961×ATR	p91	-1.178×ATR	p63

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.00373651
tp_price: 0.00351682
atr: 5.18E-5
expires_at: 2026-10-03T14:15:06+00:00

Details

rank: 75
total: 81
score: 0.3048
delta_2h: -0.0297
extension_atr: -1.15
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.2066
confidence: 0.925

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.003607	0.003737	0.003517	0.69	0.002407

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.003607
Stop Loss: 0.003737
Take Profit: 0.003517

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.003737 - 0.003607 = 0.00013
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.003607 - 0.003517 = 9.0E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 9.0E-5 / 0.00013 = 0.6923

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
222.809	100	61771.2918	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00013

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00013 = 61538.46

Taille de position USD = 61538.46 x 0.003607 = 221.97

Donc, tu peux acheter 61538.46 avec un stoploss a 0.003737

Avec un position size USD de 221.97$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 61538.46 x 0.00013 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 61538.46 x 9.0E-5 = 5.54

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 5.54$

Résumé

Taille de position 61538.46
Taille de position USD 221.97
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 5.54
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.6923

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	5.56 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
3.6 %	8.03 $

PNL	PNL %
-3.52 $	-1.58

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.5506 %	70.77 %	4

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.003607	0.003737	0.003517	0.69	0.002407

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.003607
Stop Loss: 0.003737
Take Profit: 0.003517

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.003737 - 0.003607 = 0.00013
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.003607 - 0.003517 = 9.0E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 9.0E-5 / 0.00013 = 0.6923

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -3.604% (0.0001)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.222%	0.1R	-0.555%	0.2R	0.4×	12
2h	+0.222%	0.1R	-1.054%	0.3R	0.2×	24
4h	+0.222%	0.1R	-2.412%	0.7R	0.1×	48
6h ★	+0.222%	0.1R	-2.551%	0.7R	0.1×	72
8h	+0.222%	0.1R	-4.990%	1.4R	0.0×	96
12h	+0.222%	0.1R	-7.375%	2.1R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.222%	0.1R	-8.373%	2.3R	0.0×	288
48h	+0.222%	0.1R	-13.280%	3.7R	0.0×	576
72h	+0.222%	0.1R	-13.280%	3.7R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 14 min MAE in 1374 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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