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Short Trade on PENGU

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03 Oct 2026 at 05:15:07 hyperliquid

Short Trade on PENGU (momentum_rotation_score)

With 19673.91 PENGU at 0.00895$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 0.00936 (4.55 %)

PENGU SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 03 Oct 2026 05:15 → 08:15 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.008953$

Qty 19673.905 PENGU

Size 176.1405$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 176.14$

SL 0.00936 (-4.55%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR

Status loss PnL -1.51% / -2.66$ MAE -2.02% MFE +0.00% 0.0R expires 03 Oct 08:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 174308)
#80 / 80
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/10/2026 05:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0452

Quality Score
0.365
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#80 / 80
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
99 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.55 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#80 / 80
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
99 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.55 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 1.55×ATR
4h clear 2.24×ATR
1d clear 1.64×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up mid OK
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_score (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score
-3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
mixed
NO
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
N/A
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
N/A
regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_score (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score
-3
LOW
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
N/A
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-0.01
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
N/A
regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
7.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/10 05:01
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

01/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

03/10 00:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

03/10 04:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4733
Voir snapshot →
bull developing bull_expansion
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

-2

Operational bull

0.55

expansion

-1

Tactical range

0.25

transition

0

Micro range

0.25

compression

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 0.97
Transition risk : 0.03
Score contribution (this trade) -3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 41.2%
Macro mixed_dispersion
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : mixed
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 47.5%
1h 66.1%
4h 49.2%
24h 17.0%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 39.0% +0.00%
4h 50.9% -0.01%
24h 30.5% -4.16%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.112
Universe : 59 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.98
Snapshot évalué : 03/10 05:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4088
Score SMA
0.5418
Rank
#79 / 84
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0602
Rank Norm SMA
0.3201
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4755 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -5.58% · r3d: -10.46% · ema21_slope: 1.2685% · dist_ema21: -1.183%
Force Relative 25% 0.2422 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -5.16% · rs_3d: -11.50% · beta_24h: 1.532
Volume 20% 0.4460 rvol_20: 1.23× · zscore_50: 0.467 · trend: 23.48%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7762 ADX: 36.8 (trend) · Chop: 41.9 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 10.478% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 03/10/2026 05:00
Score brut
0.3652
Score SMA
0.5101
Rank
#80 / 80
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0452
Rank Norm SMA
0.4264
Calculé le
03/10/2026 05:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2868 r1h: 0.303% · r4h: 0.584% · r1d: -10.71% · r3d: -9.70% · ema21_slope: -0.3233% · dist_ema21: -1.817%
Force Relative 25% 0.3152 rs_1h: 0.248% · rs_4h: 0.549% · rs_1d: -8.81% · rs_3d: -11.57% · beta_24h: 3.362
Volume 20% 0.1686 rvol_20: 0.14× · zscore_50: -0.471 · trend: -75.04%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5011 ADX: 31.4 (trend) · Chop: 70.4 (range)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.583% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 03/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.3235
Score SMA
0.5035
Rank
#77 / 81
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0559
Rank Norm SMA
0.4104
Calculé le
03/10/2026 04:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3393 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.646% · r1d: -10.48% · r3d: -9.66% · ema21_slope: -0.2710% · dist_ema21: -5.712%
Force Relative 25% 0.2038 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.495% · rs_1d: -8.69% · rs_3d: -11.18% · beta_24h: 2.886
Volume 20% 0.1561 rvol_20: 0.25× · zscore_50: -1.002 · trend: -32.80%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5845 ADX: 24.6 (weak) · Chop: 53.1 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.5189 ATR%: 4.443% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -4.546% (0.0004)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -1.899% 0.4R 0.0× 12
2h +0.000% 0.0R -1.932% 0.4R 0.0× 24
3h ★ +0.000% 0.0R -2.022% 0.4R 0.0× 36
4h +0.000% 0.0R -2.022% 0.4R 0.0× 48
8h +0.000% 0.0R -3.876% 0.9R 0.0× 96
12h +0.000% 0.0R -3.876% 0.9R 0.0× 144
24h +0.000% 0.0R -3.876% 0.9R 0.0× 288
48h +0.000% 0.0R -12.264% 2.7R 0.0× 576
72h +0.000% 0.0R -12.264% 2.7R 0.0× 864

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate balanced volatile_reversal bull_high
53%
noisy_chop 37% early — near 0.4ATR 0.72 bull_high +13.14% +0.83 01/10 20:00
4h ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_high
53%
noisy_chop 38% mid — — 0.58 bull_high +1.93% -0.84 03/10 00:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive compression bear_high
60%
noisy_chop 49% mid — — 0.55 range_medium +0.09% -0.65 03/10 04:00
15m ↔ neutral range range moderate fading compression bear_medium
56%
noisy_chop 41% early near 0.5ATR — 0.68 range_low -0.25% -0.02 03/10 04:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#207694
 ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate balanced 0.644 volatile_reversal bull_high
53%
noisy_chop 37% early 9b -0.1ATR — near 0.4ATR 1.23 90% ↑ +0.83 below_value -5.22 — #110100 0.72 bull_high +13.14% +0.83
01/10 20:00
upd 02/10 20:26
4h
#211064
 ↓ down range range moderate grind 0.508 compression bear_high
53%
noisy_chop 38% mid 5b -1.5ATR — — 0.25 28% ↓ -0.27 below_value -6.70 — #111586 0.58 bull_high +1.93% -0.84
03/10 00:00
upd 03/10 04:17
1h anchor
#211478
 ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive 0.275 compression bear_high
60%
noisy_chop 49% mid 14b -1.5ATR — — 0.14 6% ↓ -0.87 below_value -6.82 — #111832 0.55 range_medium +0.09% -0.65
03/10 04:00
upd 03/10 05:11
15m
#211398
 ↔ neutral range range moderate fading 0.438 compression bear_medium
56%
noisy_chop 41% early 8b 0.1ATR near 0.5ATR — 0.13 4% ↓ -0.17 below_value -6.70 — #111586 0.68 range_low -0.25% -0.02
03/10 04:45
upd 03/10 05:03
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 9b — 2.405×ATR p0 -0.095×ATR p4
4h ↓ down mid 5b — 2.958×ATR p23 -1.501×ATR p71
1h ↑ up mid 14b — 2.23×ATR p35 -1.533×ATR p80
15m ↓ down early 8b — 1.576×ATR p0 +0.105×ATR p9

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.00935963
  2. atr: 0.00013554
  3. expires_at: 2026-10-03T12:15:07+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 81
  2. total: 82
  3. score: 0.2756
  4. confidence: 0.988

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.008953 0.00936 0.004831
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.008953
  • Stop Loss: 0.00936
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.00936 - 0.008953 = 0.000407

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.008953 - = 0.008953

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.008953 / 0.000407 = 21.9975

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
176.1405 100 19673.905 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.000407

Taille de position = 8 / 0.000407 = 19656.02

Taille de position USD = 19656.02 x 0.008953 = 175.98

Donc, tu peux acheter 19656.02 avec un stoploss a 0.00936

Avec un position size USD de 175.98$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 19656.02 x 0.000407 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 19656.02 x 0.008953 = 175.98

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 175.98$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 19656.02
  • Taille de position USD 175.98
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 175.98
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 21.9975

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
100 % 176.14 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
4.55 % 8.01 $
PNL PNL %
-2.66 $ -1.51
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-2.0217 % 44.47 % 0
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.008953 0.00936 0.004831
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.008953
  • Stop Loss: 0.00936
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.00936 - 0.008953 = 0.000407

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.008953 - = 0.008953

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.008953 / 0.000407 = 21.9975

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -4.546% (0.0004)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -1.899% 0.4R 0.0× 12
2h +0.000% 0.0R -1.932% 0.4R 0.0× 24
3h ★ +0.000% 0.0R -2.022% 0.4R 0.0× 36
4h +0.000% 0.0R -2.022% 0.4R 0.0× 48
8h +0.000% 0.0R -3.876% 0.9R 0.0× 96
12h +0.000% 0.0R -3.876% 0.9R 0.0× 144
24h +0.000% 0.0R -3.876% 0.9R 0.0× 288
48h +0.000% 0.0R -12.264% 2.7R 0.0× 576
72h +0.000% 0.0R -12.264% 2.7R 0.0× 864

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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