Short Trade on PENGU (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 24204.28 PENGU at 0.00895$ per unit. Take profit: 0.008729 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.009284 (3.7 %)
03 Oct 2026 at 05:15:13
hyperliquid
PENGU
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
03 Oct 2026 05:15
→ 10:35
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.008953$
Qty 24204.2842 PENGU
Size 216.701$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.008729 (+2.5%)
TP $ 5.42$
SL 0.009284 (-3.7%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 0.68
Status
loss
PnL
-3.70%
/ -8.01$
MAE -3.88%
MFE +0.00%
0.0R
expires
03 Oct 11:15
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 174308)
#80 / 80
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/10/2026 05:00
score du 03/10/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0452
Quality Score
0.365
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#80 / 80
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
99 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.70 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#80 / 80
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
99 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.70 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.55×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.24×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.64×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
-3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
mixed
NO
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
N/A
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
N/A
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
-3
LOW
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
N/A
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-0.01
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
N/A
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
7.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/10 05:01
03/10 05:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 01/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 03/10 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/10 04:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4733
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
-2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.55 |
expansion
-1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
compression
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.97
Transition risk :
0.03
Score contribution (this trade)
-3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
41.2%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 47.5% |
| 1h | 66.1% |
| 4h | 49.2% |
| 24h | 17.0% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 39.0% | +0.00% |
| 4h | 50.9% | -0.01% |
| 24h | 30.5% | -4.16% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.112
Universe :
59
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
0.98
Snapshot évalué :
03/10 05:01
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4088
Score SMA
0.5418
Rank
#79
/ 84
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0602
Rank Norm SMA
0.3201
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4755 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -5.58% · r3d: -10.46% · ema21_slope: 1.2685% · dist_ema21: -1.183% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2422 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -5.16% · rs_3d: -11.50% · beta_24h: 1.532 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4460 | rvol_20: 1.23× · zscore_50: 0.467 · trend: 23.48% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7762 | ADX: 36.8 (trend) · Chop: 41.9 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 10.478% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
03/10/2026 05:00
Score brut
0.3652
Score SMA
0.5101
Rank
#80
/ 80
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0452
Rank Norm SMA
0.4264
Calculé le
03/10/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2868 | r1h: 0.303% · r4h: 0.584% · r1d: -10.71% · r3d: -9.70% · ema21_slope: -0.3233% · dist_ema21: -1.817% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3152 | rs_1h: 0.248% · rs_4h: 0.549% · rs_1d: -8.81% · rs_3d: -11.57% · beta_24h: 3.362 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1686 | rvol_20: 0.14× · zscore_50: -0.471 · trend: -75.04% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5011 | ADX: 31.4 (trend) · Chop: 70.4 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.583% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
03/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.3235
Score SMA
0.5035
Rank
#77
/ 81
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0559
Rank Norm SMA
0.4104
Calculé le
03/10/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3393 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.646% · r1d: -10.48% · r3d: -9.66% · ema21_slope: -0.2710% · dist_ema21: -5.712% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2038 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.495% · rs_1d: -8.69% · rs_3d: -11.18% · beta_24h: 2.886 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1561 | rvol_20: 0.25× · zscore_50: -1.002 · trend: -32.80% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5845 | ADX: 24.6 (weak) · Chop: 53.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.5189 | ATR%: 4.443% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -3.697%
(0.0003)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.899% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.932% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.022% | 0.6R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.876% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 72 |
| 8h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.876% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.876% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.876% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 288 |
| 48h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -12.264% | 3.3R | 0.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -12.264% | 3.3R | 0.0× | 864 |
computed 3 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bull_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | near 0.4ATR | 0.72 | bull_high | +13.14% | +0.83 | 01/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.58 | bull_high | +1.93% | -0.84 | 03/10 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 49% | mid | — | — | 0.55 | range_medium | +0.09% | -0.65 | 03/10 04:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_medium |
56%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | near 0.5ATR | — | 0.68 | range_low | -0.25% | -0.02 | 03/10 04:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#207694
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.644 | volatile_reversal | bull_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early 9b -0.1ATR | — | near 0.4ATR | 1.23 | 90% | ↑ +0.83 | below_value | -5.22 | — | #110100 | 0.72 | bull_high | +13.14% | +0.83 |
01/10 20:00
upd 02/10 20:26
|
|
4h
#211064
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.508 | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid 5b -1.5ATR | — | — | 0.25 | 28% | ↓ -0.27 | below_value | -6.70 | — | #111586 | 0.58 | bull_high | +1.93% | -0.84 |
03/10 00:00
upd 03/10 04:17
|
|
1h
anchor #211478
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.275 | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 49% | mid 14b -1.5ATR | — | — | 0.14 | 6% | ↓ -0.87 | below_value | -6.82 | — | #111832 | 0.55 | range_medium | +0.09% | -0.65 |
03/10 04:00
upd 03/10 05:11
|
|
15m
#211398
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.438 | compression | bear_medium |
56%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early 8b 0.1ATR | near 0.5ATR | — | 0.13 | 4% | ↓ -0.17 | below_value | -6.70 | — | #111586 | 0.68 | range_low | -0.25% | -0.02 |
03/10 04:45
upd 03/10 05:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 9b | — | 2.405×ATR | p0 | -0.095×ATR | p4 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 2.958×ATR | p23 | -1.501×ATR | p71 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 14b | — | 2.23×ATR | p35 | -1.533×ATR | p80 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 1.576×ATR | p0 | +0.105×ATR | p9 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.00928352
- tp_price: 0.00872917
- atr: 0.00013221
- expires_at: 2026-10-03T15:15:13+00:00
Details
- rank: 81
- total: 82
- score: 0.2756
- delta_2h: -0.0252
- extension_atr: -1.03
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0436
- confidence: 0.988
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.008953 | 0.009284 | 0.008729 | 0.68 | 0.004858 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.008953
- Stop Loss: 0.009284
- Take Profit: 0.008729
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.009284 - 0.008953 = 0.000331
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.008953 - 0.008729 = 0.000224
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000224 / 0.000331 = 0.6767
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216.701 | 100 | 24204.2842 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.000331
Taille de position = 8 / 0.000331 = 24169.18
Taille de position USD = 24169.18 x 0.008953 = 216.39
Donc, tu peux acheter 24169.18 avec un stoploss a 0.009284
Avec un position size USD de 216.39$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 24169.18 x 0.000331 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 24169.18 x 0.000224 = 5.41
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 5.41$
Résumé
- Taille de position 24169.18
- Taille de position USD 216.39
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 5.41
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.6767
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 5.42 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.7 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.01 $ | -3.70 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.7083 % | 100.3 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.008953 | 0.009284 | 0.008729 | 0.68 | 0.004858 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.008953
- Stop Loss: 0.009284
- Take Profit: 0.008729
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.009284 - 0.008953 = 0.000331
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.008953 - 0.008729 = 0.000224
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000224 / 0.000331 = 0.6767
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -3.697%
(0.0003)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.899% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.932% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.022% | 0.6R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.876% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 72 |
| 8h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.876% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.876% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.876% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 288 |
| 48h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -12.264% | 3.3R | 0.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -12.264% | 3.3R | 0.0× | 864 |
computed 3 weeks ago
Commentaires
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