28 Oct 2026 at 18:15:37 hyperliquid

Short Trade on LIT (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 101.17 LIT at 2.956$ per unit. Take profit: 2.7581 (6.69 %) & Stop Loss: 3.0349 (2.68 %)

LIT SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 28 Oct 2026 18:15 → 22:05 · 3 hours

Position

Entry 2.9558$

Qty 101.1696 LIT

Size 299.0371$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 2.7581 (+6.69%)

TP $ 20$

SL 3.0349 (-2.68%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status win PnL +6.69% / +20$ MAE -0.43% MFE +6.96% 2.6R expires 29 Oct 06:15

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 231192)
#64 / 66
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 28/10/2026 18:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1655

Quality Score
0.423
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#64 / 66
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#64 / 66
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.37×ATR
4h near -0.34×ATR
1d near -1.24×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down early OK
4h ↓ down early OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
14.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/10 18:04
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

26/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

28/10 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

28/10 17:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7184
Voir snapshot →
range ranging range_bound
Strategic range

0.25

range

0

Operational range

0.25

compression

0

Tactical bull

0.55

expansion

-1

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.65
Stability : 0.73
Transition risk : 0.27
Score contribution (this trade) -1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 85.2%
Macro alt_rotation
Local 4h bullish Leadership alts_leading
Legacy leadership : alts
Breadth state expanding
Δ 15m
→+0.004
Δ 1h
▲+0.069
Δ 4h
▲+0.624
Δ 12h
▲+0.147
Δ 24h
▲+0.055

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 42.2%
1h 11.1%
4h 91.1%
24h 77.8%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 42.2% -0.04%
4h 84.4% +1.61%
24h 66.7% +1.17%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
37.8%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
37.8%
Tail ↑
+0.78
Tail ↓
+0.74
Dispersion : 0.179
Universe : 45 (-1 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -1 removed
Regime confidence : 0.84
Snapshot évalué : 28/10 18:02 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 27/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2429
Score SMA
0.3228
Rank
#62 / 62
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0000
Rank Norm SMA
0.3190
Calculé le
27/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.1801 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.15% · r3d: -5.44% · ema21_slope: -0.7035% · dist_ema21: -9.456%
Force Relative 25% 0.2861 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.17% · rs_3d: -5.47% · beta_24h: 2.554
Volume 20% 0.2166 rvol_20: 0.85× · zscore_50: -0.726 · trend: -42.71%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4933 ADX: 17.1 (weak) · Chop: 56.6 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 11.286% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 28/10/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.4234
Score SMA
0.4929
Rank
#64 / 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1655
Rank Norm SMA
0.3669
Calculé le
28/10/2026 18:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4472 r1h: -1.034% · r4h: 1.622% · r1d: -3.76% · r3d: -6.22% · ema21_slope: -0.1266% · dist_ema21: -0.853%
Force Relative 25% 0.3589 rs_1h: -1.065% · rs_4h: 0.993% · rs_1d: -4.32% · rs_3d: -7.60% · beta_24h: 2.776
Volume 20% 0.3647 rvol_20: 0.86× · zscore_50: -0.207 · trend: 41.21%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5948 ADX: 20.9 (weak) · Chop: 48.0 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.883% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 28/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.4494
Score SMA
0.4528
Rank
#63 / 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0316
Rank Norm SMA
0.3555
Calculé le
28/10/2026 16:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3827 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 3.593% · r1d: -1.44% · r3d: -4.71% · ema21_slope: -0.2904% · dist_ema21: -0.910%
Force Relative 25% 0.3484 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 2.297% · rs_1d: -2.42% · rs_3d: -6.01% · beta_24h: 2.864
Volume 20% 0.5010 rvol_20: 1.97× · zscore_50: 0.115 · trend: -6.14%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4011 ADX: 14.4 (weak) · Chop: 65.2 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.8712 ATR%: 3.387% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.676% (0.0791)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.690% 0.3R -0.430% 0.2R 1.6× 12
2h +1.059% 0.4R -0.430% 0.2R 2.5× 24
4h +6.963% 2.6R -0.430% 0.2R 16.2× 48
8h +6.963% 2.6R -0.430% 0.2R 16.2× 96
12h ★ +6.963% 2.6R -0.430% 0.2R 16.2× 143
24h +8.739% 3.3R -13.540% 5.1R 0.7× 288
36h +13.184% 4.9R -13.540% 5.1R 1.0× 432
48h +13.184% 4.9R -13.540% 5.1R 1.0× 576
72h +13.184% 4.9R -13.540% 5.1R 1.0× 864
⏱ MFE in 1564 min MAE in 1074 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 50
ML Pullback Score: 5.01
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong grind compression bear_high
55%
noisy_chop 39% early near -1.2ATR — 0.42 bull_high +4.10% -0.86 26/10 20:00
4h ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong grind compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 35% early near -0.3ATR — 0.45 range_high -0.06% -0.58 28/10 12:00
1h ↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition strong grind expansion bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 43% early near -0.4ATR — 0.52 bull_medium +0.75% -0.36 28/10 17:00
15m ↔ neutral range range strong explosive expansion_after_compression bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 35% early — — 0.65 range_low +0.57% +0.00 28/10 17:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#436418
↓ down transition bearish_transition strong grind 0.446 compression bear_high
55%
noisy_chop 39% early 6b -1.0ATR near -1.2ATR — 0.85 45% ↔ -0.10 above_value -0.96 — #208479 0.42 bull_high +4.10% -0.86
26/10 20:00
upd 27/10 20:24
4h
#443151
↓ down transition bearish_transition strong grind 0.473 compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 35% early 22b -0.3ATR near -0.3ATR — 1.97 70% ↔ +0.13 above_value -0.80 — #211292 0.45 range_high -0.06% -0.58
28/10 12:00
upd 28/10 16:15
1h anchor
#443866
↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition strong grind 0.345 expansion bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 43% early 1b -0.4ATR near -0.4ATR — 0.86 43% ↑ +0.72 value -2.61 — #211621 0.52 bull_medium +0.75% -0.36
28/10 17:00
upd 28/10 18:14
15m
#443812
↔ neutral range range strong explosive 0.669 expansion_after_compression bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 35% early 3b 0.0ATR — — 0.34 54% ↓ -0.26 value -2.61 — #211621 0.65 range_low +0.57% +0.00
28/10 17:45
upd 28/10 18:11
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 6b — 2.705×ATR p10 -0.979×ATR p51
4h ↓ down early 22b — 2.403×ATR p25 -0.295×ATR p16
1h ↓ down early 1b — 1.927×ATR p15 -0.449×ATR p22
15m ↓ down early 3b — 1.114×ATR p0 +0.017×ATR p1

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.7733
  3. reason: down_bo width=1.72×ATR dur=44b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 3.03487513
  5. tp_price: 2.75811218
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.77333572973451
  8. exit_rules:
  9. expires_at: 2026-10-29T10:15:27.968640
  10. max_bars: 12
  11. max_bars_tf: 1h
  12. confidence_pre_ob: 0.77333572973451
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.025
  14. obi_top10 : 0.0898
  15. micro_price : 2.95483871
  16. spread_pct : 0.067705
  17. mid_price : 2.955
  18. bid_wall_price : 2.9
  19. bid_wall_size : 15545
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 3.01
  22. ask_wall_size : 14682
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.0108
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0768
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 6931
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.01
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    3.07605
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    2.9829
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    3.029475
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1793070000
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1793224800
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    1.725
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    44
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.7733
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1793221200
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    2.9829
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.6591
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.5018
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    1
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    1
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    10
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    10
  59. regime : bear_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.05400128
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
44
inside_close_ratio
0.6591
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.5018

Signaux confirmants (18)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 18:15 2.95580000 0%
2 18:25 2.95580000 0%
3 18:36 2.95580000 0%
4 18:44 2.95010000 -0.193%
5 18:52 2.95010000 -0.193%
6 19:01 2.95010000 -0.193%
7 19:12 2.94770000 -0.274%
8 19:20 2.94770000 -0.274%
9 19:29 2.94770000 -0.274%
10 19:39 2.93280000 -0.778%
11 19:48 2.93280000 -0.778%
12 19:56 2.93280000 -0.778%
13 20:08 2.93280000 -0.778%
14 20:19 2.93450000 -0.721%
15 20:29 2.93450000 -0.721%
16 20:38 2.93170000 -0.815%
17 20:47 2.93170000 -0.815%
18 20:56 2.93170000 -0.815%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6931ms Confidence avant OB : 77% → 77%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.025
avg -0.011 ± 0.077
OBI Top 10 0.090

Microstructure

Mid Price
2.9550
Micro Price
2.9548
Spread
0.0677%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
2.9000
Size
15,545.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
3.0100
Size
14,682.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
2.9558 3.0349 2.7581 2.5 2.8138
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 2.9558
  • Stop Loss: 3.0349
  • Take Profit: 2.7581

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 3.0349 - 2.9558 = 0.0791

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 2.9558 - 2.7581 = 0.1977

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1977 / 0.0791 = 2.4994

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
299.0371 100 101.1696 3.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0791

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0791 = 101.14

Taille de position USD = 101.14 x 2.9558 = 298.95

Donc, tu peux acheter 101.14 avec un stoploss a 3.0349

Avec un position size USD de 298.95$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 101.14 x 0.0791 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 101.14 x 0.1977 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 101.14
  • Taille de position USD 298.95
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4994

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
6.69 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.68 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
20 $ 6.69
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.4297 % 16.06 % 6
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
2.9558 3.0349 2.7581 2.5 2.8138
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 2.9558
  • Stop Loss: 3.0349
  • Take Profit: 2.7581

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 3.0349 - 2.9558 = 0.0791

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 2.9558 - 2.7581 = 0.1977

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1977 / 0.0791 = 2.4994

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
    [2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 2.7976
            [stop_loss] => 3.0349
            [rr_ratio] => 2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-29 01:55:00+00
            [result] => win
        )

    [2.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 2.75805
            [stop_loss] => 3.0349
            [rr_ratio] => 2.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-29 02:05:00+00
            [result] => win
        )

)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.676% (0.0791)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.690% 0.3R -0.430% 0.2R 1.6× 12
2h +1.059% 0.4R -0.430% 0.2R 2.5× 24
4h +6.963% 2.6R -0.430% 0.2R 16.2× 48
8h +6.963% 2.6R -0.430% 0.2R 16.2× 96
12h ★ +6.963% 2.6R -0.430% 0.2R 16.2× 143
24h +8.739% 3.3R -13.540% 5.1R 0.7× 288
36h +13.184% 4.9R -13.540% 5.1R 1.0× 432
48h +13.184% 4.9R -13.540% 5.1R 1.0× 576
72h +13.184% 4.9R -13.540% 5.1R 1.0× 864
⏱ MFE in 1564 min MAE in 1074 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.