Short Trade on AERO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 486.44 AERO at 0.688$ per unit. Take profit: 0.6466 (5.99 %) & Stop Loss: 0.7042 (2.38 %)
28 Oct 2026 at 21:08:55
hyperliquid
AERO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
28 Oct 2026 21:08
→ 09:00
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.6878$
Qty 486.4446 AERO
Size 334.5571$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.6466 (+5.99%)
TP $ 20.04$
SL 0.7042 (-2.38%)
SL $ 7.98$
RR 2.51
Status
loss
PnL
-0.13%
/ -0.42$
MAE -0.13%
MFE +3.29%
1.4R
expires
29 Oct 09:08
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 231521)
#55 / 66
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 28/10/2026 21:00
score du 28/10/2026 21:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2839
Quality Score
0.467
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#55 / 66
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-1
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.38 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#55 / 66
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.38 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | 0.58×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.68×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/10 21:02
28/10 21:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 28/10 16:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 28/10 19:00 Score : -1 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7196
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
38.2%
Macro
btc_defensive
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
→-0.014
Δ 4h
▼-0.401
Δ 12h
▲+0.126
Δ 24h
▼-0.415
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 14.6% |
| 1h | 31.3% |
| 4h | 20.8% |
| 24h | 64.6% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 14.6% | -0.09% |
| 4h | 27.1% | -0.64% |
| 24h | 47.9% | +0.48% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
0.0%
Tail ↑
+0.41
Tail ↓
+0.42
Dispersion :
0.132
Universe :
48
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.84
Snapshot évalué :
28/10 21:01
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3429
Score SMA
0.3383
Rank
#33
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5077
Rank Norm SMA
0.4734
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3936 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.67% · r3d: 3.68% · ema21_slope: -0.7562% · dist_ema21: -9.113% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4015 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.14% · rs_3d: 2.17% · beta_24h: 1.169 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1390 | rvol_20: 0.29× · zscore_50: -1.206 · trend: -35.44% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6443 | ADX: 22.8 (weak) · Chop: 43.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 9.552% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
28/10/2026 21:00
Score brut
0.4667
Score SMA
0.4751
Rank
#55
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2839
Rank Norm SMA
0.2782
Calculé le
28/10/2026 21:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4213 | r1h: -1.217% · r4h: -1.742% · r1d: -1.11% · r3d: 1.71% · ema21_slope: 0.0265% · dist_ema21: -1.416% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4167 | rs_1h: -0.918% · rs_4h: -1.447% · rs_1d: -1.55% · rs_3d: 0.53% · beta_24h: 0.981 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2840 | rvol_20: 0.80× · zscore_50: -0.239 · trend: -11.23% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5425 | ADX: 23.7 (weak) · Chop: 57.4 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.317% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4259
Score SMA
0.4096
Rank
#58
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0769
Rank Norm SMA
0.2151
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3265 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.459% · r1d: 0.10% · r3d: 3.10% · ema21_slope: -0.0459% · dist_ema21: -0.279% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4142 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.140% · rs_1d: -0.43% · rs_3d: 1.58% · beta_24h: 0.949 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2689 | rvol_20: 0.96× · zscore_50: -0.427 · trend: -32.76% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4705 | ADX: 23.3 (weak) · Chop: 65.8 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.830% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.384%
(0.0164)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +2.576% | 1.1R | -0.122% | 0.1R | 21.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +3.145% | 1.3R | -0.122% | 0.1R | 25.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +3.292% | 1.4R | -0.122% | 0.1R | 27.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.292% | 1.4R | -0.122% | 0.1R | 27.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.292% | 1.4R | -0.125% | 0.1R | 26.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +11.928% | 5.0R | -3.439% | 1.4R | 3.5× | 288 |
| 36h | +13.424% | 5.6R | -3.439% | 1.4R | 3.9× | 432 |
| 48h | +13.424% | 5.6R | -3.439% | 1.4R | 3.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +13.424% | 5.6R | -3.439% | 1.4R | 3.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1726 min
MAE in 866 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 6.55
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bull_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | — | 0.64 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.93 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | — | 0.53 | range_high | -0.37% | -0.04 | 28/10 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | range_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | 0.55 | range_medium | +0.70% | -0.05 | 28/10 19:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | near -0.6ATR | — | 0.60 | range_low | +0.14% | -0.19 | 28/10 20:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444757
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.571 | normal | bull_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid 17b -1.0ATR | — | — | 0.44 | 61% | ↓ -0.32 | above_value | -0.08 | — | #211888 | 0.64 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.93 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:26
|
|
4h
#444671
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | 0.630 | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early 18b -0.1ATR | — | — | 0.96 | 32% | ↓ -0.15 | above_value | -0.08 | — | #211888 | 0.53 | range_high | -0.37% | -0.04 |
28/10 16:00
upd 28/10 20:22
|
|
1h
anchor #444670
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.645 | expansion | range_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early 3b -0.2ATR | — | — | 0.60 | 28% | ↑ +0.23 | above_value | -0.08 | — | #211888 | 0.55 | range_medium | +0.70% | -0.05 |
28/10 19:00
upd 28/10 20:22
|
|
15m
#444973
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.489 | compression | bear_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late 19b -2.6ATR | near -0.6ATR | — | 0.13 | 16% | ↓ -0.76 | above_value | -0.08 | — | #211888 | 0.60 | range_low | +0.14% | -0.19 |
28/10 20:45
upd 28/10 21:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 17b | — | 4.411×ATR | p50 | -1.015×ATR | p52 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 18b | — | 2.447×ATR | p21 | -0.116×ATR | p9 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 1.819×ATR | p24 | -0.245×ATR | p9 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 19b | — | 6.167×ATR | p97 | -2.565×ATR | p96 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.913
- reason: down_bo width=2.63×ATR dur=34b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.70420586
- tp_price: 0.64664536
- atr:
- score: 0.91303617566035
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-29T13:08:46.850123
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.91303617566035
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0298
- obi_top10 : 0.0614
- micro_price : 0.68734112
- spread_pct : 0.058199
- mid_price : 0.6875
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.69
- ask_wall_size : 75401
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0009
- obi_top5_std : 0.0165
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7092
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.714675
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.692015
- balance_zone_mid:
0.703345
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793116800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793235600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.6323
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
34
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.913
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793232000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.692015
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.9412
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.4943
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00860857 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
34
inside_close_ratio
0.9412
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.4943
Signaux confirmants (10)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21:08 | 0.68776000 | -0.006% |
| 2 | 21:19 | 0.68776000 | -0.006% |
| 3 | 21:29 | 0.68776000 | -0.006% |
| 4 | 21:40 | 0.68293000 | -0.708% |
| 5 | 21:48 | 0.68293000 | -0.708% |
| 6 | 21:57 | 0.68293000 | -0.708% |
| 7 | 22:11 | 0.68293000 | -0.708% |
| 8 | 01:39 | 0.68040000 | -1.076% |
| 9 | 01:49 | 0.68040000 | -1.076% |
| 10 | 01:58 | 0.68040000 | -1.076% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7092ms
Confidence avant OB :
91%
→
91%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.030
avg 0.001
± 0.017
OBI Top 10
0.061
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.6875
Micro Price
0.6873
Spread
0.0582%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.6900
Size
75,401.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6878 | 0.7042 | 0.6466 | 2.51 | 0.434 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.6878
- Stop Loss: 0.7042
- Take Profit: 0.6466
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.7042 - 0.6878 = 0.0164
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.6878 - 0.6466 = 0.0412
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0412 / 0.0164 = 2.5122
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 334.5571 | 100 | 486.4446 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0164
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0164 = 487.8
Taille de position USD = 487.8 x 0.6878 = 335.51
Donc, tu peux acheter 487.8 avec un stoploss a 0.7042
Avec un position size USD de 335.51$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 487.8 x 0.0164 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 487.8 x 0.0412 = 20.1
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.1$
Résumé
- Taille de position 487.8
- Taille de position USD 335.51
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.1
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5122
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.99 % | 20.04 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.38 % | 7.98 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -0.42 $ | -0.13 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.125 % | 5.24 % | 5 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6878 | 0.7042 | 0.6466 | 2.51 | 0.434 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.6878
- Stop Loss: 0.7042
- Take Profit: 0.6466
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.7042 - 0.6878 = 0.0164
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.6878 - 0.6466 = 0.0412
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0412 / 0.0164 = 2.5122
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.384%
(0.0164)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +2.576% | 1.1R | -0.122% | 0.1R | 21.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +3.145% | 1.3R | -0.122% | 0.1R | 25.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +3.292% | 1.4R | -0.122% | 0.1R | 27.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.292% | 1.4R | -0.122% | 0.1R | 27.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.292% | 1.4R | -0.125% | 0.1R | 26.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +11.928% | 5.0R | -3.439% | 1.4R | 3.5× | 288 |
| 36h | +13.424% | 5.6R | -3.439% | 1.4R | 3.9× | 432 |
| 48h | +13.424% | 5.6R | -3.439% | 1.4R | 3.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +13.424% | 5.6R | -3.439% | 1.4R | 3.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1726 min
MAE in 866 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.