29 Oct 2026 at 06:42:35 hyperliquid

Short Trade on AERO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 347.59 AERO at 0.681$ per unit. Take profit: 0.6236 (8.46 %) & Stop Loss: 0.7042 (3.38 %)

AERO SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 29 Oct 2026 06:42 → 11:10 · 4 hours

Position

Entry 0.6812$

Qty 347.587 AERO

Size 236.7658$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.6236 (+8.46%)

TP $ 20.02$

SL 0.7042 (-3.38%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -3.38% / -7.99$ MAE -4.44% MFE +6.05% 1.8R expires 29 Oct 18:42

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 232287)
#17 / 68
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 06:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.6917

Quality Score
0.523
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#17 / 68
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.38 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#17 / 68
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.38 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear —
4h near -0.64×ATR
1d clear 1.68×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up early OK
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
3.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 06:32
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

27/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

29/10 00:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

29/10 05:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7234
Voir snapshot →
range compression range_breakdown_risk
Strategic range

0.25

compression

0

Operational bear

0.55

expansion

+1

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.73
Transition risk : 0.27
Score contribution (this trade) +1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 58.3%
Macro alt_rotation
Local 4h bullish Leadership alts_leading
Legacy leadership : alts
Breadth state expanding
Δ 15m
→-0.002
Δ 1h
▲+0.311
Δ 4h
▲+0.063
Δ 12h
▼-0.187
Δ 24h
▼-0.207

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 50.0%
1h 41.7%
4h 87.5%
24h 6.3%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 50.0% -0.00%
4h 72.9% +0.56%
24h 18.8% -3.07%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
0.0%
Tail ↑
+0.31
Tail ↓
+0.25
Dispersion : 0.067
Universe : 48 (-1 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -1 removed
Regime confidence : 0.59
Snapshot évalué : 29/10 06:31 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3429
Score SMA
0.3383
Rank
#33 / 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5077
Rank Norm SMA
0.4734
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3936 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.67% · r3d: 3.68% · ema21_slope: -0.7562% · dist_ema21: -9.113%
Force Relative 25% 0.4015 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.14% · rs_3d: 2.17% · beta_24h: 1.169
Volume 20% 0.1390 rvol_20: 0.29× · zscore_50: -1.206 · trend: -35.44%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6443 ADX: 22.8 (weak) · Chop: 43.8 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 9.552% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 29/10/2026 06:00
Score brut
0.5226
Score SMA
0.4769
Rank
#17 / 68
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6917
Rank Norm SMA
0.2960
Calculé le
29/10/2026 06:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4804 r1h: 1.073% · r4h: 0.304% · r1d: -3.69% · r3d: 2.59% · ema21_slope: -0.1924% · dist_ema21: -0.730%
Force Relative 25% 0.5430 rs_1h: 0.885% · rs_4h: 0.329% · rs_1d: -2.04% · rs_3d: 2.98% · beta_24h: 1.347
Volume 20% 0.2021 rvol_20: 0.55× · zscore_50: -0.520 · trend: -28.47%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6818 ADX: 21.8 (weak) · Chop: 36.6 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.268% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 29/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.4316
Score SMA
0.4055
Rank
#46 / 71
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2873
Rank Norm SMA
0.2034
Calculé le
29/10/2026 04:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3252 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.083% · r1d: -3.77% · r3d: 1.27% · ema21_slope: -0.0400% · dist_ema21: -3.047%
Force Relative 25% 0.4233 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.098% · rs_1d: -2.25% · rs_3d: 1.49% · beta_24h: 1.521
Volume 20% 0.2895 rvol_20: 0.96× · zscore_50: -0.462 · trend: -15.12%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4746 ADX: 23.1 (weak) · Chop: 65.1 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.9914 ATR%: 3.026% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.376% (0.0230)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.069% 0.0R -1.058% 0.3R 0.1× 12
2h +0.407% 0.1R -1.058% 0.3R 0.4× 24
4h +0.407% 0.1R -2.747% 0.8R 0.2× 48
8h +0.722% 0.2R -4.441% 1.3R 0.2× 96
12h ★ +6.051% 1.8R -4.441% 1.3R 1.4× 144
24h +12.585% 3.7R -4.441% 1.3R 2.8× 288
36h +12.585% 3.7R -4.441% 1.3R 2.8× 432
48h +12.585% 3.7R -4.441% 1.3R 2.8× 576
72h +12.585% 3.7R -4.441% 1.3R 2.8× 864
⏱ MFE in 1152 min MAE in 292 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.08
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind normal bull_high
51%
noisy_chop 41% mid — — 0.64 bull_high +4.55% -0.93 27/10 20:00
4h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate fading compression bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 37% mid near -0.6ATR — 0.53 bear_high -2.12% -0.02 29/10 00:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive normal bear_high
63%
noisy_chop 45% early — — 0.56 range_medium -0.56% -0.21 29/10 05:00
15m ↓ down range range moderate balanced compression bear_medium
57%
noisy_chop 39% early — near 0.0ATR 0.61 range_low -0.46% +0.00 29/10 06:15
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#444757
↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind 0.571 normal bull_high
51%
noisy_chop 41% mid 17b -1.0ATR — — 0.44 61% ↓ -0.32 above_value -0.08 — #211888 0.64 bull_high +4.55% -0.93
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:26
4h
#447728
↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate fading 0.641 compression bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 37% mid 4b -1.2ATR near -0.6ATR — 0.96 28% ↑ +0.28 above_value -3.08 — #213144 0.53 bear_high -2.12% -0.02
29/10 00:00
upd 29/10 04:19
1h anchor
#448435
↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive 0.282 normal bear_high
63%
noisy_chop 45% early 6b -0.6ATR — — 0.55 35% ↔ -0.06 above_value -2.83 — #213495 0.56 range_medium -0.56% -0.21
29/10 05:00
upd 29/10 06:13
15m
#448578
↓ down range range moderate balanced 0.542 compression bear_medium
57%
noisy_chop 39% early 6b 0.3ATR — near 0.0ATR 0.04 1% ↓ -0.48 above_value -2.83 — #213495 0.61 range_low -0.46% +0.00
29/10 06:15
upd 29/10 06:33
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 17b — 4.411×ATR p50 -1.015×ATR p52
4h ↓ down mid 4b — 2.037×ATR p3 -1.15×ATR p60
1h ↑ up early 6b — 1.72×ATR p20 -0.563×ATR p21
15m ↑ up early 6b — 2.421×ATR p39 +0.29×ATR p19

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.8355
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.69×ATR dur=43b phase=extending
  4. stop_price: 0.70418582
  5. tp_price: 0.62363046
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.83545
  8. exit_rules:
  9. expires_at: 2026-10-29T22:42:27.422274
  10. max_bars: 12
  11. max_bars_tf: 1h
  12. confidence_pre_ob: 0.83545
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : -0.1095
  14. obi_top10 : -0.0356
  15. micro_price : 0.6819467
  16. spread_pct : 0.044001
  17. mid_price : 0.68195
  18. bid_wall_price :
  19. bid_wall_size :
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.683
  22. ask_wall_size : 66570.8
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.1443
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0317
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7164
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.714675
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.692015
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.703345
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1793116800
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1793268000
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.695
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    43
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.8355
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1793232000
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.692015
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.7442
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    10
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    1.2898
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    5
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    7
  59. regime : bear_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.00840816
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
43
inside_close_ratio
0.7442
bars_since_breakout
10
distance_to_edge_atr
1.2898

Signaux confirmants (23)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 06:42 0.68117000 -0.004%
2 06:51 0.68117000 -0.004%
3 07:01 0.68117000 -0.004%
4 07:11 0.68550000 +0.631%
5 07:20 0.68550000 +0.631%
6 07:29 0.68550000 +0.631%
7 07:38 0.68116000 -0.006%
8 07:47 0.68116000 -0.006%
9 07:55 0.68116000 -0.006%
10 08:07 0.68116000 -0.006%
11 08:38 0.68196000 +0.112%
12 08:46 0.68196000 +0.112%
13 08:54 0.68196000 +0.112%
14 09:04 0.68196000 +0.112%
15 09:13 0.68697000 +0.847%
16 09:22 0.68697000 +0.847%
17 09:31 0.68697000 +0.847%
18 09:40 0.68704000 +0.857%
19 09:49 0.68704000 +0.857%
20 09:57 0.68704000 +0.857%
21 10:10 0.68704000 +0.857%
22 10:19 0.68727000 +0.891%
23 10:28 0.68727000 +0.891%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7164ms Confidence avant OB : 84% → 84%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.110
avg -0.144 ± 0.032
OBI Top 10 -0.036

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.6820
Micro Price
0.6819
Spread
0.0440%

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.6830
Size
66,570.80

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.6812 0.7042 0.6236 2.5 0.4429
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.6812
  • Stop Loss: 0.7042
  • Take Profit: 0.6236

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.7042 - 0.6812 = 0.023

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.6812 - 0.6236 = 0.0576

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0576 / 0.023 = 2.5043

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
236.7658 100 347.587 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.023

Taille de position = 8 / 0.023 = 347.83

Taille de position USD = 347.83 x 0.6812 = 236.94

Donc, tu peux acheter 347.83 avec un stoploss a 0.7042

Avec un position size USD de 236.94$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 347.83 x 0.023 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 347.83 x 0.0576 = 20.04

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.04$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 347.83
  • Taille de position USD 236.94
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.04
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5043

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
8.46 % 20.02 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.38 % 7.99 $
PNL PNL %
-7.99 $ -3.38
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.9093 % 115.78 % 8
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.6812 0.7042 0.6236 2.5 0.4429
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.6812
  • Stop Loss: 0.7042
  • Take Profit: 0.6236

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.7042 - 0.6812 = 0.023

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.6812 - 0.6236 = 0.0576

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0576 / 0.023 = 2.5043

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.6236
            [entry_price] => 0.6812
            [stop_loss] => 0.7065
            [rr_ratio] => 2.28
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-29 15:10:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.6236
            [entry_price] => 0.6812
            [stop_loss] => 0.7088
            [rr_ratio] => 2.09
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-29 15:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.6236
            [entry_price] => 0.6812
            [stop_loss] => 0.7111
            [rr_ratio] => 1.93
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-29 15:35:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.376% (0.0230)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.069% 0.0R -1.058% 0.3R 0.1× 12
2h +0.407% 0.1R -1.058% 0.3R 0.4× 24
4h +0.407% 0.1R -2.747% 0.8R 0.2× 48
8h +0.722% 0.2R -4.441% 1.3R 0.2× 96
12h ★ +6.051% 1.8R -4.441% 1.3R 1.4× 144
24h +12.585% 3.7R -4.441% 1.3R 2.8× 288
36h +12.585% 3.7R -4.441% 1.3R 2.8× 432
48h +12.585% 3.7R -4.441% 1.3R 2.8× 576
72h +12.585% 3.7R -4.441% 1.3R 2.8× 864
⏱ MFE in 1152 min MAE in 292 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.