Long Trade on PENGU

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29 Oct 2026 at 11:12:23 hyperliquid

Long Trade on PENGU (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 46120.14 PENGU at 0.00787$ per unit. Take profit: 0.008303 (5.52 %) & Stop Loss: 0.007696 (2.2 %)

PENGU LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 29 Oct 2026 11:12 → 15:15 · 4 hours

Position

Entry 0.007869$

Qty 46120.143 PENGU

Size 362.9194$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)

Risk Setup

TP 0.008303 (+5.52%)

TP $ 20.02$

SL 0.007696 (-2.2%)

SL $ 7.98$

RR 2.51

Status loss PnL -2.20% / -7.98$ MAE -15.86% MFE +4.71% 2.1R expires 29 Oct 23:12

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 232677)

#44 / 66

OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 11:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.6479

Quality Score

0.550

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#44 / 66

OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

78 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-1

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-1

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.20 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#44 / 66

OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

78 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.20 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Supply	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	0.64×ATR
4h	clear	0.58×ATR
1d	clear	2.35×ATR

Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	early	OK
4h	↓ down	early	OK
1d	↓ down	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

2.3M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 11:01

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (-2) 29/10 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 29/10 10:00 Score : -1 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

27/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (-2)

29/10 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1)

29/10 10:00

Score : -1 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7252

Voir snapshot →

range compression range_breakdown_risk

Strategic	range 0.25	compression 0
Operational	bear 0.55	expansion -1
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	range

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 0.73

Transition risk : 0.27

Score contribution (this trade) -1

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 84.0%

Macro alt_rotation

Local 4h bullish Leadership alts_leading

Legacy leadership : alts

Breadth state expanding

Δ 15m

→+0.000

Δ 1h

▲+0.080

Δ 4h

▲+0.229

Δ 12h

▲+0.773

Δ 24h

▲+0.757

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	40.0%
1h	96.0%
4h	92.0%
24h	70.0%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	16.0%	-0.02%
4h	74.0%	+1.49%
24h	68.0%	+1.09%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

14.0%

Down ≥1σ

0.0%

Expansion

14.0%

Tail ↑

+0.79

Tail ↓

+0.42

Dispersion : 0.173

Universe : 50 (0 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M

+0 added · -0 removed

Regime confidence : 0.59

Snapshot évalué : 29/10 11:01 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 28/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.3348

Score SMA

0.3002

Rank

#35 / 66

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4769

Rank Norm SMA

0.2497

Calculé le

28/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3750	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 2.70% · r3d: 6.24% · ema21_slope: -0.3484% · dist_ema21: 0.276%
Force Relative	25%	0.5181	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 2.17% · rs_3d: 4.73% · beta_24h: 2.085
Volume	20%	0.1808	rvol_20: 0.64× · zscore_50: -0.624 · trend: -67.25%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.3773	ADX: 18.1 (weak) · Chop: 72.0 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 7.144% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/10/2026 11:00

Score brut

0.5500

Score SMA

0.5476

Rank

#44 / 66

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.6479

Rank Norm SMA

0.6105

Calculé le

29/10/2026 11:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6170	r1h: 1.340% · r4h: 1.957% · r1d: 2.12% · r3d: 3.35% · ema21_slope: -0.0564% · dist_ema21: 1.600%
Force Relative	25%	0.5661	rs_1h: 0.260% · rs_4h: 0.854% · rs_1d: 1.41% · rs_3d: 2.39% · beta_24h: 1.878
Volume	20%	0.2273	rvol_20: 0.45× · zscore_50: -0.106 · trend: -24.22%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5564	ADX: 18.7 (weak) · Chop: 50.5 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.478% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/10/2026 08:00

Score brut

0.5410

Score SMA

0.5237

Rank

#18 / 68

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.7803

Rank Norm SMA

0.6841

Calculé le

29/10/2026 08:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5662	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.795% · r1d: -1.38% · r3d: 2.30% · ema21_slope: 0.1439% · dist_ema21: 0.419%
Force Relative	25%	0.5537	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.397% · rs_1d: 0.04% · rs_3d: 2.60% · beta_24h: 2.067
Volume	20%	0.2441	rvol_20: 0.61× · zscore_50: -0.583 · trend: -0.81%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5590	ADX: 17.0 (weak) · Chop: 48.4 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.607% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.199% (0.0002)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+4.715%	2.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	12
2h	+4.715%	2.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	24
4h	+4.715%	2.1R	-2.033%	0.9R	2.3×	48
8h	+4.715%	2.1R	-11.298%	5.1R	0.4×	96
12h ★	+4.715%	2.1R	-15.860%	7.2R	0.3×	144
24h	+4.715%	2.1R	-15.860%	7.2R	0.3×	288
36h	+4.715%	2.1R	-15.860%	7.2R	0.3×	432
48h	+4.715%	2.1R	-15.860%	7.2R	0.3×	576
72h	+4.715%	2.1R	-15.860%	7.2R	0.3×	864

⏱ MFE in 52 min MAE in 547 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 1.02

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	range_high	37%	noisy_chop 37%	mid	—	—	0.74	bull_high	+4.55%	+0.07	27/10 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion	bear_high	61%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	—	0.62	bear_high	-1.69%	+0.37	29/10 04:00
1h	↔ neutral	range	range	strong	balanced	volatile_reversal	bull_high	50%	noisy_chop 41%	early	—	—	0.72	range_medium	+0.68%	+0.09	29/10 10:00
15m	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	volatile_reversal	bull_medium	55%	noisy_chop 45%	late	—	—	0.71	bull_low_confirmed	+0.89%	+0.14	29/10 10:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #444721	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	0.684	compression	range_high	37%	noisy_chop 37%	mid 35b 0.0ATR	—	—	0.64	31%	↓ -0.66	above_value	+4.96	—	#211871	0.74	bull_high	+4.55%	+0.07	27/10 20:00 upd 28/10 20:24
4h #449181	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	0.624	expansion	bear_high	61%	noisy_chop 37%	early 3b 0.2ATR	—	—	0.61	11%	↑ +0.41	above_value	+1.96	—	#213754	0.62	bear_high	-1.69%	+0.37	29/10 04:00 upd 29/10 08:16
1h anchor #450258	↔ neutral	range	range	strong	balanced	0.538	volatile_reversal	bull_high	50%	noisy_chop 41%	early 6b 0.9ATR	—	—	0.45	65%	↓ -0.60	above_value	+3.21	—	#214232	0.72	range_medium	+0.68%	+0.09	29/10 10:00 upd 29/10 11:10
15m #450188	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.816	volatile_reversal	bull_medium	55%	noisy_chop 45%	late 1b 1.9ATR	—	—	0.64	60%	↑ +0.46	above_value	+1.93	—	#214096	0.71	bull_low_confirmed	+0.89%	+0.14	29/10 10:45 upd 29/10 11:02
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	mid	35b	—	5.672×ATR	p67	+0.045×ATR	p4
4h	↓ down	early	3b	—	1.791×ATR	p0	+0.167×ATR	p8
1h	↑ up	early	6b	—	2.623×ATR	p46	+0.918×ATR	p50
15m	↓ down	late	1b	—	1.29×ATR	p3	+1.93×ATR	p88

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

long_trend: 1
confidence: 0.7812
reason: up_bo width=2.62×ATR dur=39b phase=fresh
stop_price: 0.00769554
tp_price: 0.00830265
atr:
score: 0.7811543740312
exit_rules:
expires_at: 2026-10-30T03:12:15.905524
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.7811543740312

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : 0.0838
obi_top10 : -0.0687
micro_price : 0.00794117
spread_pct : 0.025189
mid_price : 0.007941
bid_wall_price : 0.00792
bid_wall_size : 28261965.8
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 0.00797
ask_wall_size : 37505472
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.0713
obi_top5_std : 0.0136
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7088
aggregation_tick : 1.0E-5
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
0.00785
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
0.007563
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
0.0077065
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1793149200
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1793286000
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.6182
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
39
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.7812
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1793282400
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
0.00785
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.7949
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.1733
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
9
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
5
```
regime : bull_high
atr_entry : 0.00010962

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.7949

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.1733

Signaux confirmants (7)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	11:12	0.00786900	0%
2	11:21	0.00786900	0%
3	11:29	0.00786900	0%
4	11:39	0.00796900	+1.271%
5	11:48	0.00796900	+1.271%
6	11:57	0.00796900	+1.271%
7	12:09	0.00796900	+1.271%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7088ms Confidence avant OB : 78% → 78%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.084

avg 0.071 ± 0.014

OBI Top 10 -0.069

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.0079

Micro Price

0.0079

Spread

0.0252%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

0.0079

Size

28,261,965.80

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

0.0080

Size

37,505,472.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.007869	0.007696	0.008303	2.51	0.005659

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.007869
Stop Loss: 0.007696
Take Profit: 0.008303

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.007696 - 0.007869 = -0.000173
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.007869 - 0.008303 = -0.000434
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.000434 / -0.000173 = 2.5087

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
362.9194	100	46120.143	4.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss -0.000173

Taille de position = 8 / -0.000173 = -46242.77

Taille de position USD = -46242.77 x 0.007869 = -363.88

Donc, tu peux acheter -46242.77 avec un stoploss a 0.007696

Avec un position size USD de -363.88$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -46242.77 x -0.000173 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -46242.77 x -0.000434 = 20.07

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.07$

Résumé

Taille de position -46242.77
Taille de position USD -363.88
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 20.07
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5087

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
5.52 %	20.02 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
2.2 %	7.98 $

PNL	PNL %
-7.98 $	-2.20

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.1985 %	100 %	3

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.007869	0.007696	0.008303	2.51	0.005659

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.007869
Stop Loss: 0.007696
Take Profit: 0.008303

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.007696 - 0.007869 = -0.000173
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.007869 - 0.008303 = -0.000434
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.000434 / -0.000173 = 2.5087

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.008303
            [entry_price] => 0.007869
            [stop_loss] => 0.0076787
            [rr_ratio] => 2.28
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-29 20:00:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.008303
            [entry_price] => 0.007869
            [stop_loss] => 0.0076614
            [rr_ratio] => 2.09
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-29 20:00:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.008303
            [entry_price] => 0.007869
            [stop_loss] => 0.0076441
            [rr_ratio] => 1.93
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-29 20:00:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.008303
            [entry_price] => 0.007869
            [stop_loss] => 0.0076095
            [rr_ratio] => 1.67
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-29 20:00:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.199% (0.0002)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+4.715%	2.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	12
2h	+4.715%	2.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	24
4h	+4.715%	2.1R	-2.033%	0.9R	2.3×	48
8h	+4.715%	2.1R	-11.298%	5.1R	0.4×	96
12h ★	+4.715%	2.1R	-15.860%	7.2R	0.3×	144
24h	+4.715%	2.1R	-15.860%	7.2R	0.3×	288
36h	+4.715%	2.1R	-15.860%	7.2R	0.3×	432
48h	+4.715%	2.1R	-15.860%	7.2R	0.3×	576
72h	+4.715%	2.1R	-15.860%	7.2R	0.3×	864

⏱ MFE in 52 min MAE in 547 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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