Short Trade on AERO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 420.61 AERO at 0.685$ per unit. Take profit: 0.6377 (6.95 %) & Stop Loss: 0.7043 (2.77 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 14:20:42
hyperliquid
AERO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 14:20
→ 18:45
· 4 hours
Position
Entry 0.6853$
Qty 420.6057 AERO
Size 288.2327$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.6377 (+6.95%)
TP $ 20.02$
SL 0.7043 (-2.77%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 2.51
Status
win
PnL
+6.95%
/ +20.02$
MAE -0.00%
MFE +13.11%
4.7R
expires
30 Oct 02:20
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 232982)
#44 / 72
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 14:00
score du 29/10/2026 14:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4276
Quality Score
0.528
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#44 / 72
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#44 / 72
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.03×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.95×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.68×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 14:18
29/10 14:18
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/10 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/10 13:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7265
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
48.7%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
mixed
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
contracting
Δ 15m
▼-0.286
Δ 1h
▼-0.365
Δ 4h
▼-0.213
Δ 12h
→-0.033
Δ 24h
▼-0.071
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 32.7% |
| 1h | 42.3% |
| 4h | 32.7% |
| 24h | 38.5% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 40.4% | -0.10% |
| 4h | 51.9% | -0.34% |
| 24h | 38.5% | -0.53% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
3.9%
Down ≥1σ
1.9%
Expansion
5.8%
Tail ↑
+0.61
Tail ↓
+0.42
Dispersion :
0.102
Universe :
52
(-1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-1 removed
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 14:16
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3429
Score SMA
0.3383
Rank
#33
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5077
Rank Norm SMA
0.4734
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3936 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.67% · r3d: 3.68% · ema21_slope: -0.7562% · dist_ema21: -9.113% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4015 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.14% · rs_3d: 2.17% · beta_24h: 1.169 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1390 | rvol_20: 0.29× · zscore_50: -1.206 · trend: -35.44% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6443 | ADX: 22.8 (weak) · Chop: 43.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 9.552% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 14:00
Score brut
0.5278
Score SMA
0.4799
Rank
#44
/ 72
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4276
Rank Norm SMA
0.2987
Calculé le
29/10/2026 14:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4791 | r1h: -1.648% · r4h: -0.181% · r1d: -1.59% · r3d: 0.41% · ema21_slope: -0.0071% · dist_ema21: -0.398% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4100 | rs_1h: -1.171% · rs_4h: -0.892% · rs_1d: -1.62% · rs_3d: -0.28% · beta_24h: 1.754 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2507 | rvol_20: 0.44× · zscore_50: -0.597 · trend: 17.85% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6602 | ADX: 19.2 (weak) · Chop: 38.1 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.456% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.5111
Score SMA
0.4045
Rank
#60
/ 72
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1964
Rank Norm SMA
0.1873
Calculé le
29/10/2026 12:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5068 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 3.688% · r1d: -0.83% · r3d: 3.39% · ema21_slope: -0.0262% · dist_ema21: 1.717% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4444 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.694% · rs_1d: -2.33% · rs_3d: 1.73% · beta_24h: 1.671 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3934 | rvol_20: 1.45× · zscore_50: -0.076 · trend: -15.03% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4620 | ADX: 21.3 (weak) · Chop: 64.8 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.999% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.773%
(0.0190)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.661% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +2.854% | 1.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +6.610% | 2.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +12.212% | 4.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +13.108% | 4.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 143 |
| 24h | +13.108% | 4.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 288 |
| 36h | +13.108% | 4.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 432 |
| 48h | +13.108% | 4.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 576 |
| 72h | +13.108% | 4.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 694 min
MAE in min
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 80
ML Pullback Score: 1.89
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bull_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | — | 0.64 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.93 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early | — | near -0.7ATR | 0.54 | range_high | +0.26% | +0.37 | 29/10 08:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 46% | early | — | — | 0.58 | range_medium | +0.26% | -0.19 | 29/10 13:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | range_medium |
31%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.61 | range_low | +0.28% | -0.09 | 29/10 13:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444757
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.571 | normal | bull_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid 17b -1.0ATR | — | — | 0.44 | 61% | ↓ -0.32 | above_value | -0.08 | — | #211888 | 0.64 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.93 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:26
|
|
4h
#450724
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.515 | normal | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early 3b 0.6ATR | — | near -0.7ATR | 1.45 | 47% | ↑ +0.36 | value | +1.09 | — | #214390 | 0.54 | range_high | +0.26% | +0.37 |
29/10 08:00
upd 29/10 12:20
|
|
1h
anchor #451449
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.429 | expansion | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 46% | early 2b -0.3ATR | — | — | 0.44 | 32% | ↔ -0.11 | above_value | -0.73 | — | #214752 | 0.58 | range_medium | +0.26% | -0.19 |
29/10 13:00
upd 29/10 14:13
|
|
15m
#451374
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.691 | volatile_reversal | range_medium |
31%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid 10b -1.2ATR | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.57 | 63% | ↔ -0.08 | above_value | -0.22 | — | #214606 | 0.61 | range_low | +0.28% | -0.09 |
29/10 13:45
upd 29/10 14:04
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 17b | — | 4.411×ATR | p50 | -1.015×ATR | p52 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 1.976×ATR | p0 | +0.587×ATR | p35 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 2b | — | 2.559×ATR | p47 | -0.291×ATR | p11 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 10b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | -1.241×ATR | p66 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8475
- reason: down_bo width=2.37×ATR dur=46b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.70430019
- tp_price: 0.63772953
- atr:
- score: 0.84747
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T06:20:34.915507
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84747
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0551
- obi_top10 : 0.0358
- micro_price : 0.68503827
- spread_pct : 0.043796
- mid_price : 0.68515
- bid_wall_price : 0.684
- bid_wall_size : 97826
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0313
- obi_top5_std : 0.0333
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6878
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.714675
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.692015
- balance_zone_mid:
0.703345
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793134800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793296800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3723
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
46
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8475
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793293200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.692015
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6522
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.7051
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00955189 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
46
inside_close_ratio
0.6522
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.7051
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:20 | 0.68528000 | -0.003% |
| 2 | 14:30 | 0.68528000 | -0.003% |
| 3 | 14:41 | 0.67798000 | -1.068% |
| 4 | 14:50 | 0.67798000 | -1.068% |
| 5 | 14:59 | 0.67798000 | -1.068% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6878ms
Confidence avant OB :
85%
→
85%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.055
avg 0.031
± 0.033
OBI Top 10
0.036
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.6852
Micro Price
0.6850
Spread
0.0438%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.6840
Size
97,826.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6853 | 0.7043 | 0.6377 | 2.51 | 0.4746 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.6853
- Stop Loss: 0.7043
- Take Profit: 0.6377
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.7043 - 0.6853 = 0.019
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.6853 - 0.6377 = 0.0476
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0476 / 0.019 = 2.5053
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 288.2327 | 100 | 420.6057 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.019
Taille de position = 8 / 0.019 = 421.05
Taille de position USD = 421.05 x 0.6853 = 288.55
Donc, tu peux acheter 421.05 avec un stoploss a 0.7043
Avec un position size USD de 288.55$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 421.05 x 0.019 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 421.05 x 0.0476 = 20.04
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.04$
Résumé
- Taille de position 421.05
- Taille de position USD 288.55
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.04
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5053
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.95 % | 20.02 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.77 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 20.02 $ | 6.95 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| 0 % | 0 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6853 | 0.7043 | 0.6377 | 2.51 | 0.4746 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.6853
- Stop Loss: 0.7043
- Take Profit: 0.6377
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.7043 - 0.6853 = 0.019
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.6853 - 0.6377 = 0.0476
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0476 / 0.019 = 2.5053
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
[2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.6473
[stop_loss] => 0.7043
[rr_ratio] => 2
[closed_at] => 2026-10-29 20:40:00+00
[result] => win
)
[2.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.6378
[stop_loss] => 0.7043
[rr_ratio] => 2.5
[closed_at] => 2026-10-29 22:45:00+00
[result] => win
)
[3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.6283
[stop_loss] => 0.7043
[rr_ratio] => 3
[closed_at] => 2026-10-29 23:35:00+00
[result] => win
)
[3.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.6188
[stop_loss] => 0.7043
[rr_ratio] => 3.5
[closed_at] => 2026-10-30 00:10:00+00
[result] => win
)
[4] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.6093
[stop_loss] => 0.7043
[rr_ratio] => 4
[closed_at] => 2026-10-30 00:15:00+00
[result] => win
)
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.773%
(0.0190)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.661% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +2.854% | 1.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +6.610% | 2.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +12.212% | 4.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +13.108% | 4.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 143 |
| 24h | +13.108% | 4.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 288 |
| 36h | +13.108% | 4.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 432 |
| 48h | +13.108% | 4.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 576 |
| 72h | +13.108% | 4.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 694 min
MAE in min
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
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