Short Trade on PYTH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 2389.27 PYTH at 0.0686$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06024 (12.2 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07195 (4.87 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 15:07:07
hyperliquid
PYTH
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 15:07
→ 20:20
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.06861$
Qty 2389.265 PYTH
Size 163.9179$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06024 (+12.2%)
TP $ 20$
SL 0.07195 (-4.87%)
SL $ 7.98$
RR 2.51
Status
win
PnL
+12.20%
/ +20$
MAE -0.81%
MFE +14.55%
3.0R
expires
30 Oct 03:06
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 233023)
#70 / 73
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 15:00
score du 29/10/2026 15:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3248
Quality Score
0.419
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#70 / 73
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#70 / 73
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.83×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.74×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.08×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
4.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 15:01
29/10 15:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/10 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/10 13:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7268
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
24.5%
Macro
btc_defensive
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.528
Δ 4h
▼-0.595
Δ 12h
▼-0.188
Δ 24h
▼-0.194
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 60.4% |
| 1h | 7.6% |
| 4h | 18.9% |
| 24h | 26.4% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 52.8% | +0.04% |
| 4h | 26.4% | -1.29% |
| 24h | 30.2% | -1.28% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
1.9%
Down ≥1σ
5.7%
Expansion
7.6%
Tail ↑
+0.92
Tail ↓
+0.47
Dispersion :
0.139
Universe :
53
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 15:01
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3695
Score SMA
0.4704
Rank
#26
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6154
Rank Norm SMA
0.7673
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3962 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.93% · r3d: -1.77% · ema21_slope: -0.3319% · dist_ema21: -2.699% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4293 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.40% · rs_3d: -3.28% · beta_24h: -0.168 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2006 | rvol_20: 0.47× · zscore_50: -0.246 · trend: -37.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6879 | ADX: 29.0 (trend) · Chop: 44.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 9.322% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.4187
Score SMA
—
Rank
—
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3248
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
29/10/2026 15:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3519 | r1h: -1.846% · r4h: -4.191% · r1d: -4.55% · r3d: -7.22% · ema21_slope: -0.0815% · dist_ema21: -3.400% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2211 | rs_1h: -1.822% · rs_4h: -3.802% · rs_1d: -4.35% · rs_3d: -8.33% · beta_24h: 1.809 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3231 | rvol_20: 0.48× · zscore_50: -0.074 · trend: 46.06% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6926 | ADX: 23.1 (weak) · Chop: 30.0 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.486% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.6554
Score SMA
0.4395
Rank
#13
/ 72
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4379
Rank Norm SMA
0.3425
Calculé le
29/10/2026 12:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5560 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 4.841% · r1d: 2.61% · r3d: -3.43% · ema21_slope: -0.1056% · dist_ema21: 1.311% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5230 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 2.847% · rs_1d: 1.11% · rs_3d: -5.09% · beta_24h: 2.195 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 8.95× · zscore_50: 5.898 · trend: 183.84% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4952 | ADX: 15.9 (weak) · Chop: 55.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.8356 | ATR%: 3.493% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.868%
(0.0033)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.771% | 0.4R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 2.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +7.181% | 1.5R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 8.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +7.964% | 1.6R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 9.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +14.552% | 3.0R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 17.9× | 95 |
| 12h ★ | +14.552% | 3.0R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 17.9× | 143 |
| 24h | +14.552% | 3.0R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 17.9× | 287 |
| 36h | +14.552% | 3.0R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 17.9× | 431 |
| 48h | +14.552% | 3.0R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 17.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +14.552% | 3.0R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 17.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 332 min
MAE in 47 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 50
ML Pullback Score: 7.2
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bull_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | near -1.1ATR | — | 0.57 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.73 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | strong | explosive | expansion | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | near -0.3ATR | 0.53 | range_high | +0.26% | -0.15 | 29/10 08:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.58 | range_medium | +0.26% | -0.49 | 29/10 13:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 51% | late | — | — | 0.34 | range_low | +0.24% | -0.54 | 29/10 14:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444694
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.702 | normal | bull_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid 13b -0.3ATR | near -1.1ATR | — | 0.47 | 83% | ↓ -0.55 | above_value | -0.67 | — | #211862 | 0.57 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.73 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:23
|
|
4h
#450630
|
↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | strong | explosive | 0.386 | expansion | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early 4b 0.4ATR | — | near -0.3ATR | 8.95 | 98% | ↑ +0.42 | above_value | +0.87 | — | #214359 | 0.53 | range_high | +0.26% | -0.15 |
29/10 08:00
upd 29/10 12:15
|
|
1h
anchor #451416
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | 0.200 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid 4b -0.8ATR | — | — | 0.43 | 86% | ↑ +0.60 | below_value | -1.12 | — | #214720 | 0.58 | range_medium | +0.26% | -0.49 |
29/10 13:00
upd 29/10 14:12
|
|
15m
#451721
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.294 | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 51% | late 11b -2.7ATR | — | — | 0.13 | 79% | ↓ -0.52 | below_value | -1.12 | — | #214720 | 0.34 | range_low | +0.24% | -0.54 |
29/10 14:45
upd 29/10 15:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 13b | — | 3.974×ATR | p50 | -0.268×ATR | p15 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 0.551×ATR | p0 | +0.411×ATR | p31 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 4b | — | 3.832×ATR | p75 | -0.778×ATR | p39 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 11b | — | 5.447×ATR | p88 | -2.71×ATR | p93 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7932
- reason: down_bo width=2.73×ATR dur=61b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.07195431
- tp_price: 0.06023521
- atr:
- score: 0.7931840259395
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T07:06:59.567562
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.7931840259395
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0034
- obi_top10 : -0.0428
- micro_price : 0.06861943
- spread_pct : 0.058309
- mid_price : 0.06862
- bid_wall_price : 0.0683
- bid_wall_size : 1496640
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.003
- obi_top5_std : 0.0007
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7085
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.073981
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.069607
- balance_zone_mid:
0.071794
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793084400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793300400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.7284
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
61
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7932
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793296800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.069607
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.9344
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.6244
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
10
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00160315 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
61
inside_close_ratio
0.9344
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.6244
Signaux confirmants (9)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:07 | 0.06860600 | -0.006% |
| 2 | 15:16 | 0.06860600 | -0.006% |
| 3 | 15:25 | 0.06860600 | -0.006% |
| 4 | 15:35 | 0.06860600 | -0.006% |
| 5 | 15:43 | 0.06846200 | -0.216% |
| 6 | 15:52 | 0.06846200 | -0.216% |
| 7 | 16:02 | 0.06846200 | -0.216% |
| 8 | 16:15 | 0.06794900 | -0.963% |
| 9 | 16:25 | 0.06794900 | -0.963% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7085ms
Confidence avant OB :
79%
→
79%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.003
avg -0.003
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
-0.043
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0686
Micro Price
0.0686
Spread
0.0583%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0683
Size
1,496,640.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06861 | 0.07195 | 0.06024 | 2.51 | 0.06768 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06861
- Stop Loss: 0.07195
- Take Profit: 0.06024
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07195 - 0.06861 = 0.00334
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06861 - 0.06024 = 0.00837
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00837 / 0.00334 = 2.506
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163.9179 | 100 | 2389.265 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00334
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00334 = 2395.21
Taille de position USD = 2395.21 x 0.06861 = 164.34
Donc, tu peux acheter 2395.21 avec un stoploss a 0.07195
Avec un position size USD de 164.34$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2395.21 x 0.00334 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2395.21 x 0.00837 = 20.05
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.05$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2395.21
- Taille de position USD 164.34
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.05
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.506
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 12.2 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.87 % | 7.98 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 20 $ | 12.20 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.8133 % | 16.71 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06861 | 0.07195 | 0.06024 | 2.51 | 0.06768 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06861
- Stop Loss: 0.07195
- Take Profit: 0.06024
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07195 - 0.06861 = 0.00334
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06861 - 0.06024 = 0.00837
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00837 / 0.00334 = 2.506
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
[2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.06193
[stop_loss] => 0.07195
[rr_ratio] => 2
[closed_at] => 2026-10-30 00:15:00+00
[result] => win
)
[2.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.06026
[stop_loss] => 0.07195
[rr_ratio] => 2.5
[closed_at] => 2026-10-30 00:20:00+00
[result] => win
)
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.868%
(0.0033)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.771% | 0.4R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 2.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +7.181% | 1.5R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 8.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +7.964% | 1.6R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 9.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +14.552% | 3.0R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 17.9× | 95 |
| 12h ★ | +14.552% | 3.0R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 17.9× | 143 |
| 24h | +14.552% | 3.0R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 17.9× | 287 |
| 36h | +14.552% | 3.0R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 17.9× | 431 |
| 48h | +14.552% | 3.0R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 17.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +14.552% | 3.0R | -0.813% | 0.2R | 17.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 332 min
MAE in 47 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
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