Short Trade on XLM (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1498.15 XLM at 0.165$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1518 (8.06 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1704 (3.21 %)
30 Oct 2026 at 05:53:24
hyperliquid
XLM
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
30 Oct 2026 05:53
→ 11:20
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.1651$
Qty 1498.147 XLM
Size 247.3441$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1518 (+8.06%)
TP $ 19.93$
SL 0.1704 (-3.21%)
SL $ 7.94$
RR 2.51
Status
loss
PnL
-3.21%
/ -7.94$
MAE -4.42%
MFE +0.59%
0.2R
expires
30 Oct 17:53
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 234717)
#26 / 96
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 30/10/2026 05:00
score du 30/10/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.8232
Quality Score
0.504
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#26 / 96
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.21 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#26 / 96
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.21 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.40×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.01×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.18×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/10 05:46
30/10 05:46
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 28/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 30/10 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 30/10 04:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7327
Voir snapshot →
range
ranging
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
transition
+1 |
| Micro |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.67
Transition risk :
0.33
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
40.1%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
mixed
Leadership
alts_leading
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→-0.013
Δ 1h
→+0.042
Δ 4h
▼-0.274
Δ 12h
▲+0.315
Δ 24h
▲+0.224
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 46.8% |
| 1h | 25.3% |
| 4h | 38.0% |
| 24h | 11.4% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 53.2% | -0.00% |
| 4h | 68.4% | -0.62% |
| 24h | 29.1% | -4.49% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
0.0%
Tail ↑
+0.43
Tail ↓
+0.21
Dispersion :
0.190
Universe :
79
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.55
Snapshot évalué :
30/10 05:46
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
29/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2899
Score SMA
0.3206
Rank
#43
/ 86
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5059
Rank Norm SMA
0.3310
Calculé le
29/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1188 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -5.95% · r3d: -4.26% · ema21_slope: -0.6832% · dist_ema21: -9.808% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3590 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.80% · rs_3d: -1.56% · beta_24h: 1.623 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3591 | rvol_20: 1.43× · zscore_50: -0.234 · trend: -31.07% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5211 | ADX: 25.4 (trend) · Chop: 61.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.1455 | ATR%: 5.563% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
30/10/2026 05:00
Score brut
0.5039
Score SMA
0.5337
Rank
#26
/ 96
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8232
Rank Norm SMA
0.5943
Calculé le
30/10/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4214 | r1h: -0.277% · r4h: -0.422% · r1d: -1.64% · r3d: -1.40% · ema21_slope: -0.1604% · dist_ema21: -0.518% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5123 | rs_1h: -0.096% · rs_4h: -0.129% · rs_1d: 0.91% · rs_3d: 0.92% · beta_24h: 1.205 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1982 | rvol_20: 0.19× · zscore_50: -0.326 · trend: -35.10% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7319 | ADX: 27.9 (trend) · Chop: 38.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.448% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
30/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.5650
Score SMA
0.5095
Rank
#11
/ 96
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8604
Rank Norm SMA
0.5930
Calculé le
30/10/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4568 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.747% · r1d: -0.97% · r3d: -1.26% · ema21_slope: -0.0737% · dist_ema21: -1.766% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5234 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.825% · rs_1d: 1.15% · rs_3d: 0.81% · beta_24h: 1.256 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4756 | rvol_20: 0.94× · zscore_50: 0.067 · trend: 106.89% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6797 | ADX: 21.6 (weak) · Chop: 30.2 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.231% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.210%
(0.0053)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -0.363% | 0.1R | 1.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -0.642% | 0.2R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -1.805% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -4.416% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.594% | 0.2R | -4.416% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -4.416% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -4.416% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -4.416% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -4.416% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 11 min
MAE in 366 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 3 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.86
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.59 | range_high | +0.21% | -0.85 | 28/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | — | near 0.4ATR | 0.74 | bear_high_confirmed | -3.90% | +0.04 | 30/10 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | — | — | 0.83 | bear_high | -2.60% | -0.07 | 30/10 04:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bear_medium |
59%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.86 | bear_low | -1.65% | +0.05 | 30/10 05:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#454153
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.399 | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late 30b -2.4ATR | near 0.2ATR | — | 1.43 | 70% | ↔ -0.07 | below_value | -3.29 | — | #215759 | 0.59 | range_high | +0.21% | -0.85 |
28/10 20:00
upd 29/10 20:28
|
|
4h
#458143
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | 0.411 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early 1b -0.7ATR | — | near 0.4ATR | 0.94 | 58% | ↑ +0.56 | value | -0.90 | inside | #217437 | 0.74 | bear_high_confirmed | -3.90% | +0.04 |
30/10 00:00
upd 30/10 04:25
|
|
1h
anchor #458587
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | 0.466 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid 8b -0.3ATR | — | — | 0.19 | 55% | ↑ +0.42 | below_value | -1.13 | inside | #217725 | 0.83 | bear_high | -2.60% | -0.07 |
30/10 04:00
upd 30/10 05:14
|
|
15m
#458885
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | balanced | 0.624 | compression | bear_medium |
59%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid 16b -0.8ATR | — | — | 0.96 | 77% | ↓ -0.55 | below_value | -1.13 | — | #217725 | 0.86 | bear_low | -1.65% | +0.05 |
30/10 05:30
upd 30/10 05:48
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 30b | — | 8.34×ATR | p96 | -2.387×ATR | p97 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 1b | — | 2.192×ATR | p0 | -0.743×ATR | p35 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 8b | — | 3.196×ATR | p68 | -0.28×ATR | p14 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 16b | — | 3.469×ATR | p58 | -0.772×ATR | p29 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8007
- reason: down_bo width=2.73×ATR dur=50b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.17043993
- tp_price: 0.15175017
- atr:
- score: 0.80067524052823
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T21:53:15.858216
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.80067524052823
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0178
- obi_top10 : 0.0489
- micro_price : 0.16484679
- spread_pct : 0.006066
- mid_price : 0.164845
- bid_wall_price : 0.164
- bid_wall_size : 5737875.8
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0184
- obi_top5_std : 0.0011
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7137
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.173315
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.16711
- balance_zone_mid:
0.1702125
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793174400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793350800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.7283
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
50
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8007
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793343600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.16711
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
2
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.8838
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00227432 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
50
inside_close_ratio
0.7
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
0.8838
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:53 | 0.16510000 | 0% |
| 2 | 06:04 | 0.16510000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7137ms
Confidence avant OB :
80%
→
80%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.018
avg 0.018
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
0.049
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.1648
Micro Price
0.1648
Spread
0.0061%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.1640
Size
5,737,875.80
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1651 | 0.1704 | 0.1518 | 2.51 | 0.1538 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1651
- Stop Loss: 0.1704
- Take Profit: 0.1518
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1704 - 0.1651 = 0.0053
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1651 - 0.1518 = 0.0133
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0133 / 0.0053 = 2.5094
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 247.3441 | 100 | 1498.147 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0053
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0053 = 1509.43
Taille de position USD = 1509.43 x 0.1651 = 249.21
Donc, tu peux acheter 1509.43 avec un stoploss a 0.1704
Avec un position size USD de 249.21$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1509.43 x 0.0053 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1509.43 x 0.0133 = 20.08
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.08$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1509.43
- Taille de position USD 249.21
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.08
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5094
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 8.06 % | 19.93 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.21 % | 7.94 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.94 $ | -3.21 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5251 % | 109.81 % | 10 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1651 | 0.1704 | 0.1518 | 2.51 | 0.1538 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1651
- Stop Loss: 0.1704
- Take Profit: 0.1518
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1704 - 0.1651 = 0.0053
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1651 - 0.1518 = 0.0133
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0133 / 0.0053 = 2.5094
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.1518
[entry_price] => 0.1651
[stop_loss] => 0.17093
[rr_ratio] => 2.28
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-10-30 15:25:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.210%
(0.0053)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -0.363% | 0.1R | 1.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -0.642% | 0.2R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -1.805% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -4.416% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.594% | 0.2R | -4.416% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -4.416% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -4.416% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -4.416% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.594% | 0.2R | -4.416% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 11 min
MAE in 366 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 3 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.