Short Trade on RUNE (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 215.69 RUNE at 0.617$ per unit. Take profit: 0.5239 (15.03 %) & Stop Loss: 0.6537 (6.02 %)
31 Oct 2026 at 21:43:03
hyperliquid
RUNE
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
31 Oct 2026 21:43
→ 08:40
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.6166$
Qty 215.6894 RUNE
Size 132.9897$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.5239 (+15.03%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 0.6537 (-6.02%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
0.00%
/ +0.0022$
MAE -5.42%
MFE +0.35%
0.1R
expires
01 Nov 08:42
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 238670)
#55 / 57
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 31/10/2026 21:00
score du 31/10/2026 21:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7360
Quality Score
0.399
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#55 / 57
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.02 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#55 / 57
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.02 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.73×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.87×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.21×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
31/10 21:30
31/10 21:30
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 30/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 31/10 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 31/10 20:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7486
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
compression
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
62.0%
Macro
btc_led_risk_off
Local 4h
mixed
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→-0.018
Δ 1h
→-0.009
Δ 4h
▲+0.161
Δ 12h
▼-0.098
Δ 24h
▼-0.159
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 80.6% |
| 1h | 86.1% |
| 4h | 55.6% |
| 24h | 52.8% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 77.8% | +0.04% |
| 4h | 55.6% | +0.10% |
| 24h | 50.0% | +0.31% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
2.8%
Expansion
2.8%
Tail ↑
+0.39
Tail ↓
+0.25
Dispersion :
0.061
Universe :
36
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
31/10 21:31
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4734
Score SMA
0.5659
Rank
#10
/ 57
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8393
Rank Norm SMA
0.8593
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3540 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -3.02% · r3d: 0.97% · ema21_slope: -0.3695% · dist_ema21: -2.513% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4872 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -3.27% · rs_3d: 5.63% · beta_24h: 1.314 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.8336 | rvol_20: 2.73× · zscore_50: 1.163 · trend: 118.46% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5246 | ADX: 16.4 (weak) · Chop: 52.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.044% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
31/10/2026 21:00
Score brut
0.3990
Score SMA
0.5444
Rank
#55
/ 57
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7360
Rank Norm SMA
0.6167
Calculé le
31/10/2026 21:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2979 | r1h: -3.990% · r4h: -10.950% · r1d: -8.14% · r3d: -2.79% · ema21_slope: 0.0044% · dist_ema21: -8.889% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1587 | rs_1h: -4.123% · rs_4h: -11.111% · rs_1d: -8.27% · rs_3d: 1.45% · beta_24h: -1.588 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3297 | rvol_20: 0.80× · zscore_50: -0.249 · trend: 23.49% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7499 | ADX: 30.0 (trend) · Chop: 21.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.9156 | ATR%: 3.253% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5080
Score SMA
0.5886
Rank
#13
/ 57
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8670
Rank Norm SMA
0.7968
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4515 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -6.275% · r1d: -3.02% · r3d: 0.97% · ema21_slope: 0.3935% · dist_ema21: -3.224% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4064 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -6.273% · rs_1d: -3.27% · rs_3d: 5.63% · beta_24h: 0.636 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6688 | rvol_20: 1.66× · zscore_50: 1.274 · trend: 98.18% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6522 | ADX: 18.3 (weak) · Chop: 27.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.3937 | ATR%: 4.819% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -6.017%
(0.0371)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.274% | 0.1R | -0.826% | 0.1R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.352% | 0.1R | -1.252% | 0.2R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.352% | 0.1R | -5.417% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.352% | 0.1R | -5.417% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.352% | 0.1R | -5.417% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +17.264% | 2.9R | -5.417% | 0.9R | 3.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +19.828% | 3.3R | -5.417% | 0.9R | 3.7× | 432 |
| 48h | +19.828% | 3.3R | -5.417% | 0.9R | 3.7× | 576 |
| 72h | +19.828% | 3.3R | -8.604% | 1.4R | 2.3× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1626 min
MAE in 231 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 10 hours ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.27
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 31% | early | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.68 | range_high | -0.31% | -0.26 | 30/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | — | — | 0.56 | bear_high | -3.80% | +0.45 | 31/10 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
55%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late | — | — | 0.42 | bear_low | -1.22% | -0.83 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
49%
|
choppy 55% | late | — | — | 0.31 | range_low | +0.17% | -0.74 | 31/10 21:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#475001
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.655 | expansion | bull_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 31% | early 2b -0.3ATR | near 0.2ATR | — | 2.73 | 96% | ↑ +0.62 | above_value | +0.02 | — | #224493 | 0.68 | range_high | -0.31% | -0.26 |
30/10 20:00
upd 31/10 20:19
|
|
4h
#474885
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.601 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early 1b -0.5ATR | — | — | 1.66 | 95% | ↑ +0.88 | above_value | +0.02 | — | #224493 | 0.56 | bear_high | -3.80% | +0.45 |
31/10 16:00
upd 31/10 20:13
|
|
1h
anchor #475274
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.513 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
55%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late 2b -2.6ATR | — | — | 0.80 | 88% | ↑ +0.84 | below_value | -1.26 | — | #224664 | 0.42 | bear_low | -1.22% | -0.83 |
31/10 20:00
upd 31/10 21:09
|
|
15m
#475392
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | 0.470 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
49%
|
choppy 55% | late 1b -3.1ATR | — | — | 0.39 | 59% | ↑ +0.73 | below_value | -1.26 | — | #224664 | 0.31 | range_low | +0.17% | -0.74 |
31/10 21:15
upd 31/10 21:31
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 1.003×ATR | p0 | -0.325×ATR | p19 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 1b | — | 3.381×ATR | p41 | -0.509×ATR | p25 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 2b | — | 2.857×ATR | p44 | -2.572×ATR | p96 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 1b | — | 1.343×ATR | p0 | -3.142×ATR | p93 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7464
- reason: down_bo width=2.94×ATR dur=51b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.65367038
- tp_price: 0.52385405
- atr:
- score: 0.74643362844119
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-01T13:42:55.859786
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.74643362844119
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.1093
- obi_top10 : -0.0238
- micro_price : 0.61708573
- spread_pct : 0.081064
- mid_price : 0.61705
- bid_wall_price : 0.606
- bid_wall_size : 47494.78
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.1005
- obi_top5_std : 0.0239
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6986
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.6805
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.62292
- balance_zone_mid:
0.65171
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793314800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793494800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9372
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
51
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7464
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793491200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.62292
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7255
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.3234
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
9
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.01960381 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
51
inside_close_ratio
0.7255
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3234
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21:43 | 0.61658000 | -0.003% |
| 2 | 21:57 | 0.61658000 | -0.003% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6986ms
Confidence avant OB :
75%
→
75%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.109
avg -0.101
± 0.024
OBI Top 10
-0.024
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.6171
Micro Price
0.6171
Spread
0.0811%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.6060
Size
47,494.78
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6166 | 0.6537 | 0.5239 | 2.5 | 0.6339 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.6166
- Stop Loss: 0.6537
- Take Profit: 0.5239
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.6537 - 0.6166 = 0.0371
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.6166 - 0.5239 = 0.0927
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0927 / 0.0371 = 2.4987
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132.9897 | 100 | 215.6894 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0371
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0371 = 215.63
Taille de position USD = 215.63 x 0.6166 = 132.96
Donc, tu peux acheter 215.63 avec un stoploss a 0.6537
Avec un position size USD de 132.96$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 215.63 x 0.0371 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 215.63 x 0.0927 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 215.63
- Taille de position USD 132.96
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4987
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 15.03 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.02 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 0.0022 $ | 0.00 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -5.4168 % | 90.03 % | 15 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6166 | 0.6537 | 0.5239 | 2.5 | 0.6339 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.6166
- Stop Loss: 0.6537
- Take Profit: 0.5239
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.6537 - 0.6166 = 0.0371
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.6166 - 0.5239 = 0.0927
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0927 / 0.0371 = 2.4987
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -6.017%
(0.0371)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.274% | 0.1R | -0.826% | 0.1R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.352% | 0.1R | -1.252% | 0.2R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.352% | 0.1R | -5.417% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.352% | 0.1R | -5.417% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.352% | 0.1R | -5.417% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +17.264% | 2.9R | -5.417% | 0.9R | 3.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +19.828% | 3.3R | -5.417% | 0.9R | 3.7× | 432 |
| 48h | +19.828% | 3.3R | -5.417% | 0.9R | 3.7× | 576 |
| 72h | +19.828% | 3.3R | -8.604% | 1.4R | 2.3× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1626 min
MAE in 231 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 10 hours ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.