Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 1466.52 XPL at 0.0744$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07256 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07988 (7.34 %)
01 Nov 2026 at 03:15:07
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
01 Nov 2026 03:15
→ 06:25
· 3 hours
Position
Entry 0.07442$
Qty 1466.5203 XPL
Size 109.1414$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07256 (+2.5%)
TP $ 2.73$
SL 0.07988 (-7.34%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 0.34
Status
win
PnL
+2.50%
/ +2.73$
MAE -1.90%
MFE +3.94%
0.5R
expires
01 Nov 09:15
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 239132)
#29 / 52
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/11/2026 03:00
score du 01/11/2026 03:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7714
Quality Score
0.480
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#29 / 52
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.34 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#29 / 52
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.34 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.16×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.31×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.23×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
balanced
NO
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
contracting
OK
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
mixed
NO
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
0.19
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
72.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/11 03:02
01/11 03:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 30/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/11 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 01/11 02:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7512
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
compression
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
60.0%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
mixed
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
contracting
Δ 15m
→+0.007
Δ 1h
▼-0.085
Δ 4h
→+0.012
Δ 12h
→+0.039
Δ 24h
▲+0.371
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 60.0% |
| 1h | 40.0% |
| 4h | 57.1% |
| 24h | 74.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 54.3% | +0.01% |
| 4h | 51.4% | +0.19% |
| 24h | 62.9% | +0.91% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
5.7%
Down ≥1σ
2.9%
Expansion
8.6%
Tail ↑
+0.49
Tail ↓
+0.47
Dispersion :
0.092
Universe :
35
(-1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-1 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
01/11 03:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4346
Score SMA
0.3331
Rank
#16
/ 57
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7321
Rank Norm SMA
0.3968
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4349 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.01% · r3d: 6.07% · ema21_slope: -0.5999% · dist_ema21: 2.419% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6444 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.24% · rs_3d: 10.72% · beta_24h: 2.010 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3947 | rvol_20: 1.32× · zscore_50: -0.211 · trend: 8.47% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4273 | ADX: 15.4 (weak) · Chop: 63.0 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.578% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
01/11/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.4796
Score SMA
0.5679
Rank
#29
/ 52
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7714
Rank Norm SMA
0.6805
Calculé le
01/11/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3536 | r1h: 1.305% · r4h: -10.583% · r1d: -7.23% · r3d: -0.32% · ema21_slope: -0.1720% · dist_ema21: -5.301% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3486 | rs_1h: 1.362% · rs_4h: -10.795% · rs_1d: -8.02% · rs_3d: 2.06% · beta_24h: 2.517 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3968 | rvol_20: 0.43× · zscore_50: -0.049 · trend: 167.91% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7787 | ADX: 33.4 (trend) · Chop: 9.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.9606 | ATR%: 3.118% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/11/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.5164
Score SMA
0.5416
Rank
#11
/ 52
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.9027
Rank Norm SMA
0.6591
Calculé le
01/11/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4152 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -10.583% · r1d: -7.23% · r3d: -0.32% · ema21_slope: 0.3587% · dist_ema21: -5.254% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3306 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -10.795% · rs_1d: -8.02% · rs_3d: 2.06% · beta_24h: 1.246 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 8.87× · zscore_50: 6.387 · trend: 349.67% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6309 | ADX: 15.7 (weak) · Chop: 34.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.3232 | ATR%: 5.030% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -7.337%
(0.0055)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.801% | 0.3R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 1.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.801% | 0.3R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 1.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +3.940% | 0.5R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 2.1× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +3.940% | 0.5R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 2.1× | 72 |
| 8h | +3.940% | 0.5R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 2.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +5.286% | 0.7R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 2.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.466% | 0.9R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 3.4× | 288 |
| 48h | +16.434% | 2.2R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 8.7× | 576 |
| 72h | +19.214% | 2.6R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 10.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 964 min
MAE in 34 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 12 hours ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.81
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 33% | late | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.54 | range_high | -0.31% | -0.06 | 30/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 35% | mid | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -3.18% | +0.14 | 01/11 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
57%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid | — | — | 0.51 | range_low | -0.72% | -0.68 | 01/11 02:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
47%
|
noisy_chop 44% | early | — | — | 0.15 | range_low | +0.38% | -0.78 | 01/11 02:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#475052
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.630 | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 33% | late 36b 0.3ATR | near 0.2ATR | — | 1.32 | 77% | ↔ -0.10 | above_value | +3.70 | — | #224518 | 0.54 | range_high | -0.31% | -0.06 |
30/10 20:00
upd 31/10 20:23
|
|
4h
#477388
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | 0.270 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 35% | mid 14b -1.1ATR | near 0.3ATR | — | 8.87 | 100% | ↑ +0.32 | above_value | +0.14 | — | #225498 | 0.54 | bear_high | -3.18% | +0.14 |
01/11 00:00
upd 01/11 03:14
|
|
1h
anchor #477389
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | 0.380 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
57%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid 2b -1.6ATR | — | — | 0.43 | 92% | ↑ +0.79 | above_value | +0.14 | — | #225498 | 0.51 | range_low | -0.72% | -0.68 |
01/11 02:00
upd 01/11 03:14
|
|
15m
#477293
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | 0.228 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
47%
|
noisy_chop 44% | early 13b -0.5ATR | — | — | 0.08 | 83% | ↑ +0.57 | above_value | -0.44 | — | #225394 | 0.15 | range_low | +0.38% | -0.78 |
01/11 02:45
upd 01/11 03:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 36b | — | 6.327×ATR | p88 | +0.311×ATR | p19 |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | 14b | — | 1.91×ATR | p0 | -1.083×ATR | p62 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 2b | — | 1.764×ATR | p26 | -1.624×ATR | p79 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 13b | — | 3.313×ATR | p46 | -0.499×ATR | p26 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.07987709
- tp_price: 0.07256145
- atr: 0.00218204
- expires_at: 2026-11-01T14:15:07+00:00
Details
- rank: 54
- total: 54
- score: 0.3462
- delta_2h: -0.1459
- extension_atr: -1.81
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.7739
- confidence: 1
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:15 | 0.07442200 | +0.003% |
| 2 | 05:15 | 0.07484200 | +0.567% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07442 | 0.07988 | 0.07256 | 0.34 | 0.06411 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07442
- Stop Loss: 0.07988
- Take Profit: 0.07256
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07988 - 0.07442 = 0.00546
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07442 - 0.07256 = 0.00186
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00186 / 0.00546 = 0.3407
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109.1414 | 100 | 1466.5203 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00546
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00546 = 1465.2
Taille de position USD = 1465.2 x 0.07442 = 109.04
Donc, tu peux acheter 1465.2 avec un stoploss a 0.07988
Avec un position size USD de 109.04$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1465.2 x 0.00546 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1465.2 x 0.00186 = 2.73
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2.73$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1465.2
- Taille de position USD 109.04
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 2.73
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.3407
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 2.73 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 7.34 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 2.73 $ | 2.50 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.896 % | 25.84 % | 7 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07442 | 0.07988 | 0.07256 | 0.34 | 0.06411 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07442
- Stop Loss: 0.07988
- Take Profit: 0.07256
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07988 - 0.07442 = 0.00546
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07442 - 0.07256 = 0.00186
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00186 / 0.00546 = 0.3407
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -7.337%
(0.0055)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.801% | 0.3R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 1.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.801% | 0.3R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 1.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +3.940% | 0.5R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 2.1× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +3.940% | 0.5R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 2.1× | 72 |
| 8h | +3.940% | 0.5R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 2.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +5.286% | 0.7R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 2.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.466% | 0.9R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 3.4× | 288 |
| 48h | +16.434% | 2.2R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 8.7× | 576 |
| 72h | +19.214% | 2.6R | -1.896% | 0.3R | 10.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 964 min
MAE in 34 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 12 hours ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.