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Short Trade on XPL

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01 Nov 2026 at 07:15:19 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 1448.88 XPL at 0.0729$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07108 (2.51 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07843 (7.57 %)

XPL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 01 Nov 2026 07:15 → 13:05 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.07291$

Qty 1448.879 XPL

Size 105.632$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.07108 (+2.51%)

TP $ 2.65$

SL 0.07843 (-7.57%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.33

Status win PnL +0.40% / +0.42$ MAE -3.48% MFE +1.48% 0.2R expires 01 Nov 13:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 239387)
#46 / 51
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/11/2026 07:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5361

Quality Score
0.428
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#46 / 51
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.57 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#46 / 51
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.57 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 1.17×ATR
4h near -0.31×ATR
1d near 0.23×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
balanced
NO
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
stable
NO
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
mixed
NO
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-0.05
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
81.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/11 07:02
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

30/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2)

01/11 03:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

01/11 06:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7528
Voir snapshot →
bear developing bear_expansion
Strategic bear

0.55

expansion

+2

Operational bear

0.55

expansion

+1

Tactical range

0.25

compression

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 0.63
Transition risk : 0.37
Score contribution (this trade) +3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 52.4%
Macro mixed_dispersion
Local 4h mixed Leadership balanced
Legacy leadership : mixed
Breadth state stable
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
→-0.019
Δ 4h
▼-0.076
Δ 12h
→+0.006
Δ 24h
▲+0.074

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 40.0%
1h 51.4%
4h 48.6%
24h 77.1%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 22.9% -0.01%
4h 45.7% -0.05%
24h 71.4% +0.91%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
2.9%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
2.9%
Tail ↑
+0.58
Tail ↓
+0.40
Dispersion : 0.058
Universe : 35 (0 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -0 removed
Regime confidence : 0.78
Snapshot évalué : 01/11 07:01 · env bear_trend

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 31/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4346
Score SMA
0.3331
Rank
#16 / 57
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7321
Rank Norm SMA
0.3968
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4349 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.01% · r3d: 6.07% · ema21_slope: -0.5999% · dist_ema21: 2.419%
Force Relative 25% 0.6444 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.24% · rs_3d: 10.72% · beta_24h: 2.010
Volume 20% 0.3947 rvol_20: 1.32× · zscore_50: -0.211 · trend: 8.47%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4273 ADX: 15.4 (weak) · Chop: 63.0 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 8.578% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 01/11/2026 07:00
Score brut
0.4283
Score SMA
0.5690
Rank
#46 / 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5361
Rank Norm SMA
0.6838
Calculé le
01/11/2026 07:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.1736 r1h: -2.472% · r4h: -3.135% · r1d: -10.43% · r3d: -6.05% · ema21_slope: -0.3664% · dist_ema21: -6.462%
Force Relative 25% 0.1824 rs_1h: -2.387% · rs_4h: -3.148% · rs_1d: -10.89% · rs_3d: -3.30% · beta_24h: 1.863
Volume 20% 0.5867 rvol_20: 1.69× · zscore_50: 0.818 · trend: 56.68%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7943 ADX: 35.3 (trend) · Chop: 15.9 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.9329 ATR%: 3.201% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 01/11/2026 07:00
Score brut
0.4485
Score SMA
0.5433
Rank
#20 / 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6665
Rank Norm SMA
0.6710
Calculé le
01/11/2026 07:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3738 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -3.135% · r1d: -10.43% · r3d: -6.05% · ema21_slope: 0.2955% · dist_ema21: -7.533%
Force Relative 25% 0.3014 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.148% · rs_1d: -10.89% · rs_3d: -3.30% · beta_24h: 1.203
Volume 20% 0.6155 rvol_20: 1.51× · zscore_50: 0.804 · trend: 256.36%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6444 ADX: 17.3 (weak) · Chop: 35.3 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.2497 ATR%: 5.251% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -7.571% (0.0055)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.610% 0.1R -2.142% 0.3R 0.3× 12
2h +0.610% 0.1R -3.484% 0.5R 0.2× 24
4h +0.610% 0.1R -3.484% 0.5R 0.2× 48
6h ★ +1.477% 0.2R -3.484% 0.5R 0.4× 72
8h +3.325% 0.4R -3.484% 0.5R 1.0× 96
12h +3.839% 0.5R -3.484% 0.5R 1.1× 144
24h +5.700% 0.8R -3.484% 0.5R 1.6× 288
⏱ MFE in 1274 min MAE in 89 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 40 minutes ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.6
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range moderate grind normal bear_high
56%
noisy_chop 33% late near 0.2ATR — 0.54 range_high -0.31% -0.06 30/10 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate grind volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
48%
noisy_chop 37% late near -0.3ATR — 0.54 bear_high -3.11% -0.07 01/11 03:00
1h ↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition moderate grind expansion_after_compression bear_high_confirmed
56%
noisy_chop 46% late — — 0.51 range_low -0.67% -0.84 01/11 06:00
15m ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 40% late — — 0.15 range_low +0.28% -0.19 01/11 06:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#475052
 ↔ neutral range range moderate grind 0.630 normal bear_high
56%
noisy_chop 33% late 36b 0.3ATR near 0.2ATR — 1.32 77% ↔ -0.10 above_value +3.70 — #224518 0.54 range_high -0.31% -0.06
30/10 20:00
upd 31/10 20:23
4h
#478505
 ↔ neutral range range moderate grind 0.642 volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
48%
noisy_chop 37% late 1b -1.6ATR near -0.3ATR — 1.51 97% ↑ +0.51 above_value -0.82 — #225958 0.54 bear_high -3.11% -0.07
01/11 03:00
upd 01/11 07:14
1h anchor
#478504
 ↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition moderate grind 0.464 expansion_after_compression bear_high_confirmed
56%
noisy_chop 46% late 3b -1.8ATR — — 1.69 99% ↑ +0.90 above_value -0.82 — #225958 0.51 range_low -0.67% -0.84
01/11 06:00
upd 01/11 07:14
15m
#478412
 ↓ down range range moderate grind 0.488 compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 40% late 12b -1.9ATR — — 0.52 82% ↑ +0.24 value +0.41 — #225856 0.15 range_low +0.28% -0.19
01/11 06:45
upd 01/11 07:03
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down late 36b — 6.327×ATR p88 +0.311×ATR p19
4h ↓ down late 1b — 3.712×ATR p53 -1.63×ATR p87
1h ↓ down late 3b — 1.511×ATR p8 -1.814×ATR p83
15m ↓ down late 12b — 2.874×ATR p40 -1.877×ATR p89

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.07842751
  2. tp_price: 0.07108335
  3. atr: 0.0022086
  4. expires_at: 2026-11-01T18:15:19+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 51
  2. total: 51
  3. score: 0.2093
  4. delta_2h: -0.214
  5. extension_atr: -1.77
  6. trend_phase:
  7. trend_direction:
  8. rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.5344
  9. confidence: 1

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.07291 0.07843 0.07108 0.33 0.06422
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.07291
  • Stop Loss: 0.07843
  • Take Profit: 0.07108

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07843 - 0.07291 = 0.00552

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.07291 - 0.07108 = 0.00183

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00183 / 0.00552 = 0.3315

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
105.632 100 1448.879 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00552

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00552 = 1449.28

Taille de position USD = 1449.28 x 0.07291 = 105.67

Donc, tu peux acheter 1449.28 avec un stoploss a 0.07843

Avec un position size USD de 105.67$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1449.28 x 0.00552 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1449.28 x 0.00183 = 2.65

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2.65$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1449.28
  • Taille de position USD 105.67
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 2.65
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 0.3315

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.51 % 2.65 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
7.57 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
0.42 $ 0.40
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.4837 % 46.01 % 8
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.07291 0.07843 0.07108 0.33 0.06422
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.07291
  • Stop Loss: 0.07843
  • Take Profit: 0.07108

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07843 - 0.07291 = 0.00552

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.07291 - 0.07108 = 0.00183

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00183 / 0.00552 = 0.3315

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -7.571% (0.0055)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.610% 0.1R -2.142% 0.3R 0.3× 12
2h +0.610% 0.1R -3.484% 0.5R 0.2× 24
4h +0.610% 0.1R -3.484% 0.5R 0.2× 48
6h ★ +1.477% 0.2R -3.484% 0.5R 0.4× 72
8h +3.325% 0.4R -3.484% 0.5R 1.0× 96
12h +3.839% 0.5R -3.484% 0.5R 1.1× 144
24h +5.700% 0.8R -3.484% 0.5R 1.6× 288
⏱ MFE in 1274 min MAE in 89 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 40 minutes ago

Commentaires

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