Short Trade on MEGA (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 8220.56 MEGA at 0.0434$ per unit. Take profit: 0.04097 (5.6 %) & Stop Loss: 0.04437 (2.24 %)
01 Nov 2026 at 13:22:37
hyperliquid
MEGA
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Nov 2026 13:22
→ 01:20
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.0434$
Qty 8220.5576 MEGA
Size 356.7804$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 0.04097 (+5.6%)
TP $ 19.98$
SL 0.04437 (-2.24%)
SL $ 7.97$
RR 2.51
Status
win
PnL
+1.76%
/ +6.28$
MAE -1.67%
MFE +1.94%
0.9R
expires
02 Nov 01:22
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: )
#59 / 65
OK
seuil : top 15
Avg Rank 8h:
Quality Score
N/A
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#59 / 65
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
N/A
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.24 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#59 / 65
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.24 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | — | — | OK |
| 4h | — | — | OK |
| 1d | — | — | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
597,262 $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/11 13:18
01/11 13:18
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
— |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7553
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
12.2%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
▼-0.144
Δ 1h
▼-0.108
Δ 4h
▼-0.357
Δ 12h
▼-0.730
Δ 24h
▼-0.623
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 53.3% |
| 1h | 60.0% |
| 4h | 10.0% |
| 24h | 36.7% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 53.3% | +0.01% |
| 4h | 10.0% | -0.76% |
| 24h | 26.7% | -0.39% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
6.7%
Expansion
6.7%
Tail ↑
+0.30
Tail ↓
+0.59
Dispersion :
0.095
Universe :
30
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
01/11 13:16
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
30/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5316
Score SMA
0.5507
Rank
#12
/ 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8750
Rank Norm SMA
0.7930
Calculé le
30/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6859 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.25% · r3d: -7.46% · ema21_slope: 0.3001% · dist_ema21: -0.225% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5871 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.53% · rs_3d: -3.07% · beta_24h: 2.092 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4942 | rvol_20: 1.53× · zscore_50: 0.439 · trend: 24.57% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5345 | ADX: 31.0 (trend) · Chop: 65.9 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 9.478% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.235%
(0.0010)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.237% | 0.6R | -0.940% | 0.4R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.237% | 0.6R | -0.940% | 0.4R | 1.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.237% | 0.6R | -0.940% | 0.4R | 1.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.237% | 0.6R | -1.668% | 0.8R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.942% | 0.9R | -1.668% | 0.8R | 1.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +9.327% | 4.2R | -8.615% | 3.9R | 1.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +9.327% | 4.2R | -8.615% | 3.9R | 1.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +9.327% | 4.2R | -9.477% | 4.2R | 1.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +9.327% | 4.2R | -14.198% | 6.4R | 0.7× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 877 min
MAE in 1197 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 day ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.7
Prediction Score: N/A
No context market snapshot
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7821
- reason: down_bo width=2.53×ATR dur=35b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 0.04437417
- tp_price: 0.04096806
- atr:
- score: 0.88207894684614
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-02T06:22:29.831831
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.88207894684614
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1998
- obi_top10 : 0.0305
- micro_price : 0.04315328
- spread_pct : 0.069557
- mid_price : 0.043145
- bid_wall_price : 0.0428
- bid_wall_size : 698815
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.2004
- obi_top5_std : 0.0079
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7083
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.044882
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.043779
- balance_zone_mid:
0.0443305
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793433600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793556000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.5255
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
35
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8821
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793552400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.043779
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8571
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.8655
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00043675 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
35
inside_close_ratio
0.8571
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.8655
Signaux confirmants (22)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:22 | 0.04340100 | +0.002% |
| 2 | 13:37 | 0.04366500 | +0.611% |
| 3 | 13:50 | 0.04366500 | +0.611% |
| 4 | 14:04 | 0.04366500 | +0.611% |
| 5 | 14:19 | 0.04332100 | -0.182% |
| 6 | 14:33 | 0.04332100 | -0.182% |
| 7 | 14:46 | 0.04307900 | -0.74% |
| 8 | 14:59 | 0.04307900 | -0.74% |
| 9 | 15:16 | 0.04322700 | -0.399% |
| 10 | 15:30 | 0.04322700 | -0.399% |
| 11 | 15:43 | 0.04364200 | +0.558% |
| 12 | 15:56 | 0.04364200 | +0.558% |
| 13 | 16:11 | 0.04362000 | +0.507% |
| 14 | 16:23 | 0.04362000 | +0.507% |
| 15 | 16:36 | 0.04362000 | +0.507% |
| 16 | 16:48 | 0.04351800 | +0.272% |
| 17 | 17:01 | 0.04351800 | +0.272% |
| 18 | 17:17 | 0.04352200 | +0.281% |
| 19 | 17:29 | 0.04352200 | +0.281% |
| 20 | 17:42 | 0.04360200 | +0.465% |
| 21 | 17:53 | 0.04360200 | +0.465% |
| 22 | 18:07 | 0.04360200 | +0.465% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7083ms
Confidence avant OB :
88%
→
78%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.200
avg 0.200
± 0.008
OBI Top 10
0.031
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0431
Micro Price
0.0432
Spread
0.0696%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0428
Size
698,815.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0434 | 0.04437 | 0.04097 | 2.51 | 0.04606 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.0434
- Stop Loss: 0.04437
- Take Profit: 0.04097
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.04437 - 0.0434 = 0.00097
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.0434 - 0.04097 = 0.00243
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00243 / 0.00097 = 2.5052
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 356.7804 | 100 | 8220.5576 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00097
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00097 = 8247.42
Taille de position USD = 8247.42 x 0.0434 = 357.94
Donc, tu peux acheter 8247.42 avec un stoploss a 0.04437
Avec un position size USD de 357.94$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 8247.42 x 0.00097 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 8247.42 x 0.00243 = 20.04
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.04$
Résumé
- Taille de position 8247.42
- Taille de position USD 357.94
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.04
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5052
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.6 % | 19.98 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.24 % | 7.97 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 6.28 $ | 1.76 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6682 % | 74.64 % | 10 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0434 | 0.04437 | 0.04097 | 2.51 | 0.04606 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.0434
- Stop Loss: 0.04437
- Take Profit: 0.04097
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.04437 - 0.0434 = 0.00097
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.0434 - 0.04097 = 0.00243
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00243 / 0.00097 = 2.5052
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.235%
(0.0010)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.237% | 0.6R | -0.940% | 0.4R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.237% | 0.6R | -0.940% | 0.4R | 1.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.237% | 0.6R | -0.940% | 0.4R | 1.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.237% | 0.6R | -1.668% | 0.8R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.942% | 0.9R | -1.668% | 0.8R | 1.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +9.327% | 4.2R | -8.615% | 3.9R | 1.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +9.327% | 4.2R | -8.615% | 3.9R | 1.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +9.327% | 4.2R | -9.477% | 4.2R | 1.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +9.327% | 4.2R | -14.198% | 6.4R | 0.7× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 877 min
MAE in 1197 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 day ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.