Short Trade on JUP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 2213.52 JUP at 0.255$ per unit. Take profit: 0.246 (3.57 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2587 (1.41 %)
01 Nov 2026 at 14:41:37
hyperliquid
JUP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Nov 2026 14:41
→ 19:00
· 4 hours
Position
Entry 0.2551$
Qty 2213.5157 JUP
Size 564.6015$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 0.246 (+3.57%)
TP $ 20.14$
SL 0.2587 (-1.41%)
SL $ 7.97$
RR 2.53
Status
loss
PnL
-1.41%
/ -7.97$
MAE -1.51%
MFE +1.02%
0.7R
expires
02 Nov 02:41
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 239850)
#17 / 54
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/11/2026 14:00
score du 01/11/2026 14:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4032
Quality Score
0.500
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#17 / 54
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.41 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#17 / 54
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.41 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 5.79×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.43×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.29×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/11 14:31
01/11 14:31
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 30/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/11 07:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/11 13:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7558
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
8.9%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
→-0.033
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
▼-0.569
Δ 24h
▼-0.481
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 56.7% |
| 1h | 70.0% |
| 4h | 6.7% |
| 24h | 30.0% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 60.0% | +0.01% |
| 4h | 10.0% | -1.12% |
| 24h | 26.7% | -0.53% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
16.7%
Expansion
16.7%
Tail ↑
+0.47
Tail ↓
+0.86
Dispersion :
0.091
Universe :
30
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
01/11 14:31
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2684
Score SMA
0.2815
Rank
#51
/ 57
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1071
Rank Norm SMA
0.1856
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1941 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.68% · r3d: -8.44% · ema21_slope: -0.8300% · dist_ema21: -11.329% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3649 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.93% · rs_3d: -3.78% · beta_24h: 2.403 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1376 | rvol_20: 0.35× · zscore_50: -0.936 · trend: -54.38% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6095 | ADX: 21.9 (weak) · Chop: 47.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 9.158% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
01/11/2026 14:00
Score brut
0.4998
Score SMA
0.4860
Rank
#17
/ 54
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4032
Rank Norm SMA
0.3376
Calculé le
01/11/2026 14:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4160 | r1h: -0.660% · r4h: -1.357% · r1d: -1.05% · r3d: -6.19% · ema21_slope: -0.0097% · dist_ema21: -1.134% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4155 | rs_1h: -0.543% · rs_4h: -1.141% · rs_1d: -1.39% · rs_3d: -2.50% · beta_24h: 1.804 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4421 | rvol_20: 1.67× · zscore_50: 0.424 · trend: -30.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5515 | ADX: 15.4 (weak) · Chop: 47.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.737% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/11/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.3777
Score SMA
0.4376
Rank
#38
/ 53
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2386
Rank Norm SMA
0.2957
Calculé le
01/11/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2872 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.243% · r1d: -0.12% · r3d: -8.34% · ema21_slope: -0.2298% · dist_ema21: -1.338% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4179 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.269% · rs_1d: -0.64% · rs_3d: -3.71% · beta_24h: 2.341 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1523 | rvol_20: 0.18× · zscore_50: -0.715 · trend: -57.24% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3773 | ADX: 22.6 (weak) · Chop: 76.6 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.419% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.411%
(0.0036)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.094% | 0.1R | -0.674% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.094% | 0.1R | -0.788% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.094% | 0.1R | -1.396% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.094% | 0.1R | -1.505% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.023% | 0.7R | -1.505% | 1.1R | 0.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.029% | 3.6R | -1.505% | 1.1R | 3.3× | 288 |
| 36h | +6.006% | 4.3R | -1.505% | 1.1R | 4.0× | 432 |
| 48h | +6.006% | 4.3R | -1.505% | 1.1R | 4.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +6.954% | 4.9R | -4.296% | 3.0R | 1.6× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1878 min
MAE in 258 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 day ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.41
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | — | — | 0.58 | range_high | -0.31% | -0.99 | 30/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | compression | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.60 | bear_high | -3.03% | -0.09 | 01/11 07:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid | — | — | 0.78 | range_low | -0.69% | -0.11 | 01/11 13:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_low_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.55 | range_low | -0.04% | -0.11 | 01/11 14:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#475018
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.579 | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late 23b -1.6ATR | — | — | 0.35 | 13% | ↓ -0.46 | below_value | -9.59 | — | #224501 | 0.58 | range_high | -0.31% | -0.99 |
30/10 20:00
upd 31/10 20:20
|
|
4h
#479633
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.254 | compression | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early 15b -0.8ATR | — | — | 0.18 | 3% | ↓ -0.75 | below_value | -10.18 | — | #226418 | 0.60 | bear_high | -3.03% | -0.09 |
01/11 07:00
upd 01/11 11:12
|
|
1h
anchor #480468
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.413 | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid 4b -1.6ATR | — | — | 1.67 | 71% | ↔ -0.12 | below_value | -11.84 | — | #226779 | 0.78 | range_low | -0.69% | -0.11 |
01/11 13:00
upd 01/11 14:09
|
|
15m
#480577
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | grind | 0.334 | expansion_after_compression | bear_low_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late 1b -2.3ATR | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.89 | 72% | ↑ +0.64 | below_value | -11.84 | — | #226779 | 0.55 | range_low | -0.04% | -0.11 |
01/11 14:15
upd 01/11 14:31
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 23b | — | 5.474×ATR | p71 | -1.57×ATR | p82 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 15b | — | 3.671×ATR | p48 | -0.782×ATR | p39 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 4b | — | 2.078×ATR | p35 | -1.632×ATR | p79 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 1b | — | 1.662×ATR | p10 | -2.25×ATR | p92 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8738
- reason: down_bo width=2.23×ATR dur=43b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.25868416
- tp_price: 0.24603461
- atr:
- score: 0.87378181238823
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-02T07:41:29.558187
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.87378181238823
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0588
- obi_top10 : 0.0417
- micro_price : 0.25460981
- spread_pct : 0.078585
- mid_price : 0.2546
- bid_wall_price : 0.251
- bid_wall_size : 630965
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.258
- ask_wall_size : 690585
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0588
- obi_top5_std : 0
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7037
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.260655
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.256325
- balance_zone_mid:
0.25849
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793408400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793559600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.2302
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
43
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8738
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793556000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.256325
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7907
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.6464
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
10
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00194155 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
43
inside_close_ratio
0.7907
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.6464
Signaux confirmants (7)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:41 | 0.25507000 | -0.012% |
| 2 | 14:53 | 0.25507000 | -0.012% |
| 3 | 15:10 | 0.25525000 | +0.059% |
| 4 | 15:24 | 0.25525000 | +0.059% |
| 5 | 15:38 | 0.25610000 | +0.392% |
| 6 | 15:51 | 0.25610000 | +0.392% |
| 7 | 16:05 | 0.25610000 | +0.392% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7037ms
Confidence avant OB :
87%
→
87%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.059
avg 0.059
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
0.042
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.2546
Micro Price
0.2546
Spread
0.0786%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.2510
Size
630,965.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.2580
Size
690,585.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2551 | 0.2587 | 0.246 | 2.53 | 0.2466 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.2551
- Stop Loss: 0.2587
- Take Profit: 0.246
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2587 - 0.2551 = 0.0036
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.2551 - 0.246 = 0.0091
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0091 / 0.0036 = 2.5278
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 564.6015 | 100 | 2213.5157 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0036
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0036 = 2222.22
Taille de position USD = 2222.22 x 0.2551 = 566.89
Donc, tu peux acheter 2222.22 avec un stoploss a 0.2587
Avec un position size USD de 566.89$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2222.22 x 0.0036 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2222.22 x 0.0091 = 20.22
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.22$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2222.22
- Taille de position USD 566.89
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.22
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5278
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.57 % | 20.14 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.41 % | 7.97 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.97 $ | -1.41 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5053 % | 106.67 % | 5 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2551 | 0.2587 | 0.246 | 2.53 | 0.2466 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.2551
- Stop Loss: 0.2587
- Take Profit: 0.246
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2587 - 0.2551 = 0.0036
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.2551 - 0.246 = 0.0091
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0091 / 0.0036 = 2.5278
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.411%
(0.0036)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.094% | 0.1R | -0.674% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.094% | 0.1R | -0.788% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.094% | 0.1R | -1.396% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.094% | 0.1R | -1.505% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.023% | 0.7R | -1.505% | 1.1R | 0.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.029% | 3.6R | -1.505% | 1.1R | 3.3× | 288 |
| 36h | +6.006% | 4.3R | -1.505% | 1.1R | 4.0× | 432 |
| 48h | +6.006% | 4.3R | -1.505% | 1.1R | 4.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +6.954% | 4.9R | -4.296% | 3.0R | 1.6× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1878 min
MAE in 258 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 day ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.