Short Trade on AAVE (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 3.74 AAVE at 132.85$ per unit. Take profit: 127.5026 (4.03 %) & Stop Loss: 134.989 (1.61 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 04:14:16
hyperliquid
AAVE
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 04:14
→ 12:20
· 8 hours
Position
Entry 132.85$
Qty 3.7401 AAVE
Size 496.8746$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 127.5026 (+4.03%)
TP $ 20$
SL 134.989 (-1.61%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+4.03%
/ +20$
MAE -0.03%
MFE +4.98%
3.1R
expires
02 Nov 16:14
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 240830)
#6 / 52
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 04:00
score du 02/11/2026 04:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6228
Quality Score
0.580
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#6 / 52
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-1
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.61 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#6 / 52
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.61 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.41×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 3.79×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.54×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
10.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 04:00
02/11 04:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/11 23:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 02/11 03:00 Score : -1 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7612
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
17.1%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
recovering
Δ 15m
→-0.005
Δ 1h
▲+0.060
Δ 4h
▼-0.449
Δ 12h
→+0.021
Δ 24h
▼-0.505
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 59.5% |
| 1h | 75.7% |
| 4h | 10.8% |
| 24h | 13.5% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 40.5% | +0.03% |
| 4h | 21.6% | -0.78% |
| 24h | 18.9% | -3.07% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
2.7%
Down ≥1σ
8.1%
Expansion
10.8%
Tail ↑
+0.45
Tail ↓
+0.50
Dispersion :
0.163
Universe :
37
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 04:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4109
Score SMA
0.3486
Rank
#15
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7200
Rank Norm SMA
0.5063
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3246 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.81% · r3d: 12.98% · ema21_slope: -0.9275% · dist_ema21: -5.248% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5339 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.21% · rs_3d: 12.49% · beta_24h: 2.063 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3926 | rvol_20: 1.31× · zscore_50: -0.161 · trend: 5.27% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6766 | ADX: 25.4 (trend) · Chop: 42.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 7.344% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.5803
Score SMA
0.5390
Rank
#6
/ 52
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6228
Rank Norm SMA
0.5826
Calculé le
02/11/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4326 | r1h: -0.992% · r4h: -1.110% · r1d: -3.46% · r3d: 5.94% · ema21_slope: -0.0732% · dist_ema21: -1.437% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4369 | rs_1h: -1.164% · rs_4h: -0.905% · rs_1d: -3.43% · rs_3d: 5.66% · beta_24h: 0.926 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.8445 | rvol_20: 3.40× · zscore_50: 1.861 · trend: 40.31% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4828 | ADX: 17.2 (weak) · Chop: 58.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.029% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.5017
Score SMA
0.4801
Rank
#5
/ 52
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8646
Rank Norm SMA
0.5016
Calculé le
02/11/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4887 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.689% · r1d: -2.74% · r3d: 6.95% · ema21_slope: 0.2260% · dist_ema21: 0.227% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5342 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.033% · rs_1d: -2.93% · rs_3d: 7.03% · beta_24h: 2.484 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2478 | rvol_20: 0.65× · zscore_50: -0.141 · trend: -25.51% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4796 | ADX: 17.1 (weak) · Chop: 58.4 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.672% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.610%
(2.1390)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.475% | 0.9R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.596% | 1.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.596% | 1.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +2.544% | 1.6R | -0.030% | 0.0R | 84.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +4.983% | 3.1R | -0.030% | 0.0R | 165.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.805% | 4.2R | -0.030% | 0.0R | 226.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +6.805% | 4.2R | -0.030% | 0.0R | 226.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +7.279% | 4.5R | -0.030% | 0.0R | 241.8× | 576 |
| 72h | +7.279% | 4.5R | -3.049% | 1.9R | 2.4× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1100 min
MAE in 270 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 5 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 3.24
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bull_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.69 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.80 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | grind | compression | bear_high |
67%
|
noisy_chop 46% | early | — | — | 0.70 | bear_high | -2.68% | +0.82 | 01/11 23:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | range_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 49% | mid | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.70 | range_low | -0.17% | -0.38 | 02/11 03:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_medium_confirmed |
56%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | near -1.0ATR | — | 0.52 | range_low | +0.16% | -0.12 | 02/11 03:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#481973
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.617 | normal | bull_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early 2b -0.8ATR | — | — | 1.31 | 69% | ↑ +0.16 | above_value | -0.05 | — | #227328 | 0.69 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.80 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:18
|
|
4h
#484232
|
↔ neutral | range | range | strong | grind | 0.691 | compression | bear_high |
67%
|
noisy_chop 46% | early 6b 0.1ATR | — | — | 0.65 | 50% | ↓ -0.29 | above_value | -0.51 | — | #228258 | 0.70 | bear_high | -2.68% | +0.82 |
01/11 23:00
upd 02/11 03:11
|
|
1h
anchor #484532
|
↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.637 | compression | range_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 49% | mid 7b -1.5ATR | near 0.4ATR | — | 3.40 | 96% | ↓ -0.19 | above_value | -0.85 | — | #228411 | 0.70 | range_low | -0.17% | -0.38 |
02/11 03:00
upd 02/11 04:08
|
|
15m
#484480
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.516 | normal | bear_medium_confirmed |
56%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid 4b -1.8ATR | near -1.0ATR | — | 5.89 | 99% | ↑ +0.66 | above_value | -0.51 | — | #228258 | 0.52 | range_low | +0.16% | -0.12 |
02/11 03:45
upd 02/11 04:01
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 1.975×ATR | p0 | -0.801×ATR | p41 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 1.896×ATR | p0 | +0.096×ATR | p4 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 3.04×ATR | p54 | -1.529×ATR | p72 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 4b | — | 2.482×ATR | p39 | -1.776×ATR | p80 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8773
- reason: down_bo width=2.75×ATR dur=42b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 134.98897021
- tp_price: 127.50257448
- atr:
- score: 0.87725715435154
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-02T21:14:09.133663
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.87725715435154
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1212
- obi_top10 : 0.1459
- micro_price : 132.79052288
- spread_pct : 0.007531
- mid_price : 132.795
- bid_wall_price : 132
- bid_wall_size : 12608.4
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 134
- ask_wall_size : 7249
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1214
- obi_top5_std : 0.0004
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6895
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
136.635
- balance_zone_bottom:
133.085
- balance_zone_mid:
134.86
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793462400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793610000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.7526
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
42
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8773
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793606400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
133.085
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6429
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.1822
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 1.28970209 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
42
inside_close_ratio
0.6429
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1822
Signaux confirmants (15)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:14 | 132.85000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 04:23 | 132.85000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 04:34 | 132.85000000 | 0% |
| 4 | 04:43 | 131.93000000 | -0.693% |
| 5 | 04:53 | 131.93000000 | -0.693% |
| 6 | 05:04 | 131.93000000 | -0.693% |
| 7 | 06:39 | 131.38000000 | -1.107% |
| 8 | 06:48 | 131.38000000 | -1.107% |
| 9 | 06:56 | 131.38000000 | -1.107% |
| 10 | 07:10 | 131.43000000 | -1.069% |
| 11 | 07:21 | 131.43000000 | -1.069% |
| 12 | 07:31 | 131.43000000 | -1.069% |
| 13 | 07:41 | 131.68000000 | -0.881% |
| 14 | 07:50 | 131.68000000 | -0.881% |
| 15 | 07:59 | 131.68000000 | -0.881% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6895ms
Confidence avant OB :
88%
→
88%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.121
avg 0.121
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
0.146
Microstructure
Mid Price
132.7950
Micro Price
132.7905
Spread
0.0075%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
132.0000
Size
12,608.40
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
134.0000
Size
7,249.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 132.85 | 134.989 | 127.5026 | 2.5 | 125.42 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 132.85
- Stop Loss: 134.989
- Take Profit: 127.5026
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 134.989 - 132.85 = 2.139
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 132.85 - 127.5026 = 5.3474
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 5.3474 / 2.139 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 496.8746 | 100 | 3.7401 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 2.139
Taille de position = 8 / 2.139 = 3.74
Taille de position USD = 3.74 x 132.85 = 496.86
Donc, tu peux acheter 3.74 avec un stoploss a 134.989
Avec un position size USD de 496.86$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 3.74 x 2.139 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 3.74 x 5.3474 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 3.74
- Taille de position USD 496.86
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.03 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.61 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 20 $ | 4.03 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.0301 % | 1.87 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 132.85 | 134.989 | 127.5026 | 2.5 | 125.42 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 132.85
- Stop Loss: 134.989
- Take Profit: 127.5026
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 134.989 - 132.85 = 2.139
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 132.85 - 127.5026 = 5.3474
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 5.3474 / 2.139 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.610%
(2.1390)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.475% | 0.9R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.596% | 1.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.596% | 1.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +2.544% | 1.6R | -0.030% | 0.0R | 84.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +4.983% | 3.1R | -0.030% | 0.0R | 165.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.805% | 4.2R | -0.030% | 0.0R | 226.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +6.805% | 4.2R | -0.030% | 0.0R | 226.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +7.279% | 4.5R | -0.030% | 0.0R | 241.8× | 576 |
| 72h | +7.279% | 4.5R | -3.049% | 1.9R | 2.4× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1100 min
MAE in 270 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 5 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.