Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 2630.18 XPL at 0.0668$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06512 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.06983 (4.55 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 19:15:16
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 19:15
→ 20:55
· 1 hour
Position
Entry 0.06679$
Qty 2630.1773 XPL
Size 175.6748$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06512 (+2.5%)
TP $ 4.39$
SL 0.06983 (-4.55%)
SL $ 8$
RR 0.55
Status
win
PnL
+2.50%
/ +4.39$
MAE -0.89%
MFE +6.89%
1.5R
expires
03 Nov 01:15
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 241947)
#63 / 65
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 19:00
score du 02/11/2026 19:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0434
Quality Score
0.392
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#63 / 65
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
99 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.55 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#63 / 65
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
99 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.55 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -0.29×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+4
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
alts_leading
NO
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
recovering
NO
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+4
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
mixed
NO
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
0.12
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
17.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 19:02
02/11 19:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 11:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 02/11 17:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7672
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.60
Transition risk :
0.40
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
52.1%
Macro
btc_led_risk_off
Local 4h
mixed
Leadership
alts_leading
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
recovering
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▲+0.181
Δ 4h
▲+0.405
Δ 12h
▲+0.264
Δ 24h
→-0.035
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 60.4% |
| 1h | 20.8% |
| 4h | 58.3% |
| 24h | 12.5% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 56.3% | +0.01% |
| 4h | 81.3% | +0.12% |
| 24h | 27.1% | -3.37% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
0.0%
Tail ↑
+0.27
Tail ↓
+0.33
Dispersion :
0.084
Universe :
48
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.76
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 19:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4017
Score SMA
0.3571
Rank
#18
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6600
Rank Norm SMA
0.4829
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2395 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -12.60% · r3d: -2.00% · ema21_slope: -0.5980% · dist_ema21: -9.628% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2790 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -13.62% · rs_3d: -2.49% · beta_24h: 1.599 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9734 | rvol_20: 4.93× · zscore_50: 2.600 · trend: 100.15% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4360 | ADX: 16.3 (weak) · Chop: 62.9 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 10.819% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3915
Score SMA
0.5468
Rank
#63
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0434
Rank Norm SMA
0.5973
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2222 | r1h: -0.498% · r4h: -0.857% · r1d: -6.51% · r3d: -18.28% · ema21_slope: -0.2803% · dist_ema21: -3.426% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2936 | rs_1h: -0.332% · rs_4h: -0.505% · rs_1d: -4.57% · rs_3d: -17.59% · beta_24h: 2.952 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2052 | rvol_20: 0.64× · zscore_50: -0.264 · trend: -52.02% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7957 | ADX: 44.9 (trend) · Chop: 47.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.844% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3201
Score SMA
0.5317
Rank
#60
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0551
Rank Norm SMA
0.6510
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1316 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.857% · r1d: -6.51% · r3d: -18.28% · ema21_slope: -0.5811% · dist_ema21: -9.136% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2786 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.505% · rs_1d: -4.57% · rs_3d: -17.59% · beta_24h: 0.277 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2214 | rvol_20: 0.32× · zscore_50: -0.217 · trend: -23.13% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7619 | ADX: 31.4 (trend) · Chop: 31.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.4465 | ATR%: 4.661% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.552%
(0.0030)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.578% | 0.1R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +6.423% | 1.4R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 7.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +6.887% | 1.5R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 7.7× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +6.887% | 1.5R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 7.7× | 72 |
| 8h | +6.887% | 1.5R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 7.7× | 96 |
| 12h | +6.887% | 1.5R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 7.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.887% | 1.5R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 7.7× | 288 |
| 48h | +9.985% | 2.2R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 11.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +15.410% | 3.4R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 17.3× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 204 min
MAE in 59 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 6.6
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 35% | late | near -0.3ATR | — | 0.53 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.66 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | — | — | 0.54 | bear_high_confirmed | -3.73% | -0.81 | 02/11 11:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | 0.49 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.52% | -0.37 | 02/11 17:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | weak | fading | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | — | 0.17 | bear_low | -0.92% | -0.05 | 02/11 18:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#482046
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.391 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 35% | late 37b -1.1ATR | near -0.3ATR | — | 4.93 | 99% | ↑ +0.22 | value | -1.57 | — | #227351 | 0.53 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.66 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:21
|
|
4h
#488074
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.386 | normal | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late 9b -1.9ATR | — | — | 0.83 | 89% | ↔ +0.13 | below_value | -5.56 | inside | #229835 | 0.54 | bear_high_confirmed | -3.73% | -0.81 |
02/11 11:00
upd 02/11 15:17
|
|
1h
anchor #489088
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.636 | normal | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late 7b -1.9ATR | — | — | 0.13 | 10% | ↑ +0.17 | below_value | -5.55 | inside | #230294 | 0.49 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.52% | -0.37 |
02/11 17:00
upd 02/11 18:10
|
|
15m
#489367
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | weak | fading | 0.773 | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early 8b -1.0ATR | — | — | 0.67 | 40% | ↓ -0.74 | below_value | -5.55 | — | #230294 | 0.17 | bear_low | -0.92% | -0.05 |
02/11 18:45
upd 02/11 19:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 37b | — | 7.073×ATR | p92 | -1.1×ATR | p68 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 9b | — | 6.001×ATR | p80 | -1.868×ATR | p93 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 7b | — | 3.273×ATR | p72 | -1.864×ATR | p82 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 1.513×ATR | p4 | -1.03×ATR | p47 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.06983362
- tp_price: 0.0651222
- atr: 0.00121665
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T06:15:16+00:00
Details
- rank: 65
- total: 66
- score: 0.219
- delta_2h: -0.0078
- extension_atr: -1.54
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0434
- confidence: 0.985
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06679 | 0.06983 | 0.06512 | 0.55 | 0.04803 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06679
- Stop Loss: 0.06983
- Take Profit: 0.06512
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06983 - 0.06679 = 0.00304
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06679 - 0.06512 = 0.00167
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00167 / 0.00304 = 0.5493
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175.6748 | 100 | 2630.1773 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00304
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00304 = 2631.58
Taille de position USD = 2631.58 x 0.06679 = 175.76
Donc, tu peux acheter 2631.58 avec un stoploss a 0.06983
Avec un position size USD de 175.76$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2631.58 x 0.00304 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2631.58 x 0.00167 = 4.39
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.39$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2631.58
- Taille de position USD 175.76
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 4.39
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5493
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 4.39 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.55 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 4.39 $ | 2.50 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.8894 % | 19.54 % | 8 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06679 | 0.06983 | 0.06512 | 0.55 | 0.04803 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06679
- Stop Loss: 0.06983
- Take Profit: 0.06512
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06983 - 0.06679 = 0.00304
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06679 - 0.06512 = 0.00167
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00167 / 0.00304 = 0.5493
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.552%
(0.0030)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.578% | 0.1R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +6.423% | 1.4R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 7.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +6.887% | 1.5R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 7.7× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +6.887% | 1.5R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 7.7× | 72 |
| 8h | +6.887% | 1.5R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 7.7× | 96 |
| 12h | +6.887% | 1.5R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 7.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.887% | 1.5R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 7.7× | 288 |
| 48h | +9.985% | 2.2R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 11.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +15.410% | 3.4R | -0.889% | 0.2R | 17.3× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 204 min
MAE in 59 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.