Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 2306.33 XPL at 0.0638$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06225 (2.49 %) & Stop Loss: 0.06731 (5.44 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 22:15:14
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 22:15
→ 22:40
· 24 minutes
Position
Entry 0.06384$
Qty 2306.3263 XPL
Size 147.2405$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06225 (+2.49%)
TP $ 3.67$
SL 0.06731 (-5.44%)
SL $ 8$
RR 0.46
Status
win
PnL
+2.49%
/ +3.67$
MAE -0.82%
MFE +2.58%
0.5R
expires
03 Nov 04:15
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 242271)
#21 / 64
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 22:00
score du 02/11/2026 22:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1519
Quality Score
0.482
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#21 / 64
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.44 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#21 / 64
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.44 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -0.91×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+4
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
btc_leading
OK
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
recovering
NO
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+4
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
mixed
NO
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-0.20
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
28.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 22:02
02/11 22:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high_confirmed (+3) 01/11 19:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 15:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 02/11 21:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7684
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.60
Transition risk :
0.40
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
25.3%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
mixed
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
recovering
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▲+0.080
Δ 4h
▼-0.087
Δ 12h
▼-0.399
Δ 24h
▼-0.364
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 32.0% |
| 1h | 70.0% |
| 4h | 30.0% |
| 24h | 14.0% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 36.0% | -0.10% |
| 4h | 30.0% | -0.20% |
| 24h | 28.0% | -3.66% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
2.0%
Expansion
2.0%
Tail ↑
+0.31
Tail ↓
+0.49
Dispersion :
0.089
Universe :
50
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.76
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 22:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.2335
Score SMA
0.3587
Rank
#53
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1875
Rank Norm SMA
0.5074
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0918 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -6.51% · r3d: -18.28% · ema21_slope: -0.6516% · dist_ema21: -14.301% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2013 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -4.57% · rs_3d: -17.59% · beta_24h: 1.708 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4264 | rvol_20: 1.07× · zscore_50: -0.260 · trend: 63.80% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4688 | ADX: 17.6 (weak) · Chop: 60.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 11.374% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 22:00
Score brut
0.4822
Score SMA
0.5463
Rank
#21
/ 64
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1519
Rank Norm SMA
0.5988
Calculé le
02/11/2026 22:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0878 | r1h: -1.477% · r4h: -4.456% · r1d: -9.83% · r3d: -21.61% · ema21_slope: -0.3712% · dist_ema21: -5.955% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1535 | rs_1h: -0.948% · rs_4h: -4.156% · rs_1d: -7.63% · rs_3d: -20.69% · beta_24h: 2.257 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.8856 | rvol_20: 7.32× · zscore_50: 1.284 · trend: 152.66% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.9024 | ADX: 48.3 (trend) · Chop: 27.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.153% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3123
Score SMA
0.5315
Rank
#61
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0551
Rank Norm SMA
0.6506
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1316 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.857% · r1d: -6.51% · r3d: -18.28% · ema21_slope: -0.5811% · dist_ema21: -9.136% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2786 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.505% · rs_1d: -4.57% · rs_3d: -17.59% · beta_24h: 0.277 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2214 | rvol_20: 0.32× · zscore_50: -0.217 · trend: -23.13% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7619 | ADX: 31.4 (trend) · Chop: 31.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.4465 | ATR%: 4.661% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -5.436%
(0.0035)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +2.585% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +2.585% | 0.5R | -0.390% | 0.1R | 6.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.585% | 0.5R | -0.390% | 0.1R | 6.6× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +2.585% | 0.5R | -0.819% | 0.2R | 3.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.585% | 0.5R | -1.438% | 0.3R | 1.8× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.585% | 0.5R | -2.914% | 0.5R | 0.9× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.826% | 1.1R | -2.914% | 0.5R | 2.0× | 288 |
| 48h | +5.826% | 1.1R | -5.412% | 1.0R | 1.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +11.501% | 2.1R | -5.412% | 1.0R | 2.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1424 min
MAE in 514 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 4.91
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near -0.9ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -1.23% | -0.88 | 01/11 19:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -4.00% | -0.90 | 02/11 15:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
54%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | — | — | 0.49 | bear_medium | -1.70% | -0.63 | 02/11 21:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
64%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | near -0.1ATR | — | 0.18 | bear_low | -0.92% | -0.44 | 02/11 21:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#489634
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.386 | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late 38b -1.6ATR | near -0.9ATR | — | 1.07 | 78% | ↑ +0.35 | below_value | -5.79 | — | #230428 | 0.54 | bear_high | -1.23% | -0.88 |
01/11 19:00
upd 02/11 19:24
|
|
4h
#489510
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.381 | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late 10b -1.9ATR | — | — | 0.32 | 62% | ↔ +0.07 | below_value | -5.79 | inside | #230428 | 0.54 | bear_high | -4.00% | -0.90 |
02/11 15:00
upd 02/11 19:18
|
|
1h
anchor #490603
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.632 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
54%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late 11b -2.8ATR | — | — | 7.32 | 99% | ↑ +0.46 | below_value | -6.88 | inside | #230889 | 0.49 | bear_medium | -1.70% | -0.63 |
02/11 21:00
upd 02/11 22:10
|
|
15m
#490536
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.401 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
64%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late 3b -2.7ATR | near -0.1ATR | — | 0.20 | 48% | ↑ +0.96 | below_value | -5.92 | — | #230759 | 0.18 | bear_low | -0.92% | -0.44 |
02/11 21:45
upd 02/11 22:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 38b | — | 7.808×ATR | p100 | -1.572×ATR | p89 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 10b | — | 6.386×ATR | p97 | -1.868×ATR | p93 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 11b | — | 5.159×ATR | p90 | -2.849×ATR | p98 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 3b | — | 1.822×ATR | p26 | -2.711×ATR | p96 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.06731072
- tp_price: 0.06224595
- atr: 0.00138749
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T09:15:14+00:00
Details
- rank: 65
- total: 65
- score: 0.0956
- delta_2h: -0.1721
- extension_atr: -2.64
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1479
- confidence: 1
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06384 | 0.06731 | 0.06225 | 0.46 | 0.0455 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06384
- Stop Loss: 0.06731
- Take Profit: 0.06225
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06731 - 0.06384 = 0.00347
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06384 - 0.06225 = 0.00159
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00159 / 0.00347 = 0.4582
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147.2405 | 100 | 2306.3263 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00347
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00347 = 2305.48
Taille de position USD = 2305.48 x 0.06384 = 147.18
Donc, tu peux acheter 2305.48 avec un stoploss a 0.06731
Avec un position size USD de 147.18$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2305.48 x 0.00347 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2305.48 x 0.00159 = 3.67
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.67$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2305.48
- Taille de position USD 147.18
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 3.67
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.4582
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.49 % | 3.67 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.44 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 3.67 $ | 2.49 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| 0 % | 0 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06384 | 0.06731 | 0.06225 | 0.46 | 0.0455 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06384
- Stop Loss: 0.06731
- Take Profit: 0.06225
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06731 - 0.06384 = 0.00347
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06384 - 0.06225 = 0.00159
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00159 / 0.00347 = 0.4582
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -5.436%
(0.0035)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +2.585% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +2.585% | 0.5R | -0.390% | 0.1R | 6.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.585% | 0.5R | -0.390% | 0.1R | 6.6× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +2.585% | 0.5R | -0.819% | 0.2R | 3.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.585% | 0.5R | -1.438% | 0.3R | 1.8× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.585% | 0.5R | -2.914% | 0.5R | 0.9× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.826% | 1.1R | -2.914% | 0.5R | 2.0× | 288 |
| 48h | +5.826% | 1.1R | -5.412% | 1.0R | 1.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +11.501% | 2.1R | -5.412% | 1.0R | 2.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1424 min
MAE in 514 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.