03 Nov 2026 at 18:15:05 hyperliquid

Long Trade on PUMP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 36830.72 PUMP at 0.00439$ per unit. Take profit: 0.004931 (12.37 %) & Stop Loss: 0.004171 (4.95 %)

PUMP LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 03 Nov 2026 18:15 → 21:25 · 3 hours

Position

Entry 0.004388$

Qty 36830.7168 PUMP

Size 161.6132$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.004931 (+12.37%)

TP $ 20$

SL 0.004171 (-4.95%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -4.95% / -7.99$ MAE -6.61% MFE +2.26% 0.5R expires 04 Nov 06:14

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 243832)
#3 / 59
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/11/2026 18:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.9324

Quality Score
0.646
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#3 / 59
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-7
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#3 / 59
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-7
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h near 0.48×ATR
4h near 0.34×ATR
1d clear 5.38×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up late BLOCKED
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↓ down late OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
39.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/11 18:02
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3)

01/11 19:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (-2)

03/11 11:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1)

03/11 17:00

Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7764
Voir snapshot →
bear developing bear_expansion
Strategic bear

0.55

expansion

-2

Operational bear

0.55

expansion

-1

Tactical range

0.25

transition

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 0.60
Transition risk : 0.40
Score contribution (this trade) -3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 64.2%
Macro mixed_dispersion
Local 4h bullish Leadership balanced
Legacy leadership : mixed
Breadth state contracting
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.114
Δ 4h
▲+0.079
Δ 12h
→-0.039
Δ 24h
▲+0.302

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 70.7%
1h 7.3%
4h 63.4%
24h 80.5%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 56.1% +0.04%
4h 46.3% +0.18%
24h 68.3% +1.45%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
2.4%
Down ≥1σ
2.4%
Expansion
4.9%
Tail ↑
+0.34
Tail ↓
+0.14
Dispersion : 0.052
Universe : 41 (0 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -0 removed
Regime confidence : 0.76
Snapshot évalué : 03/11 18:01 · env bear_trend

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.1991
Score SMA
0.2729
Rank
#61 / 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0625
Rank Norm SMA
0.1914
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.0998 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -5.25% · r3d: -4.75% · ema21_slope: -0.8409% · dist_ema21: -10.803%
Force Relative 25% 0.2913 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -3.31% · rs_3d: -4.06% · beta_24h: 3.002
Volume 20% 0.1430 rvol_20: 0.47× · zscore_50: -0.856 · trend: -52.43%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4514 ADX: 17.4 (weak) · Chop: 62.1 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 11.951% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 03/11/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.6456
Score SMA
0.5277
Rank
#3 / 59
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.9324
Rank Norm SMA
0.5667
Calculé le
03/11/2026 18:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.7292 r1h: 0.046% · r4h: 2.714% · r1d: 10.55% · r3d: 4.42% · ema21_slope: 0.4124% · dist_ema21: 4.547%
Force Relative 25% 0.7018 rs_1h: 0.079% · rs_4h: 2.336% · rs_1d: 9.34% · rs_3d: 3.96% · beta_24h: 2.320
Volume 20% 0.4408 rvol_20: 1.07× · zscore_50: 0.260 · trend: 49.53%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.8152 ADX: 37.8 (trend) · Chop: 28.7 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.790% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 03/11/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.5415
Score SMA
0.4458
Rank
#9 / 59
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8504
Rank Norm SMA
0.3520
Calculé le
03/11/2026 15:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4964 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.047% · r1d: 8.82% · r3d: 1.21% · ema21_slope: -0.1258% · dist_ema21: 3.299%
Force Relative 25% 0.6312 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.052% · rs_1d: 8.15% · rs_3d: 1.14% · beta_24h: 3.570
Volume 20% 0.4027 rvol_20: 1.51× · zscore_50: -0.147 · trend: -11.95%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4633 ADX: 11.6 (weak) · Chop: 54.7 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.8472 ATR%: 3.458% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -4.945% (0.0002)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.912% 0.2R -2.712% 0.6R 0.3× 12
2h +0.912% 0.2R -3.760% 0.8R 0.2× 24
4h +0.912% 0.2R -6.518% 1.3R 0.1× 48
8h +0.912% 0.2R -6.609% 1.3R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +2.256% 0.5R -6.609% 1.3R 0.3× 143
24h +4.057% 0.8R -6.609% 1.3R 0.6× 288
36h +4.057% 0.8R -6.609% 1.3R 0.6× 432
48h +4.057% 0.8R -12.329% 2.5R 0.3× 576
72h +4.057% 0.8R -12.899% 2.6R 0.3× 864
⏱ MFE in 959 min MAE in 274 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.43
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind compression bear_high
50%
noisy_chop 40% late near -0.4ATR — 0.50 bear_high -1.23% -0.91 01/11 19:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate grind normal bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 35% early — near 0.3ATR 0.55 bear_high -2.69% +0.31 03/11 11:00
1h ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind expansion bull_high_confirmed
69%
noisy_chop 48% late — near 0.5ATR 0.75 range_medium +0.09% +0.76 03/11 17:00
15m ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind normal bull_high
66%
noisy_chop 43% late — — 0.75 range_low +0.56% +0.32 03/11 17:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#489632
↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind 0.521 compression bear_high
50%
noisy_chop 40% late 29b -1.1ATR near -0.4ATR — 0.47 58% ↓ -0.61 below_value -1.78 — #230427 0.50 bear_high -1.23% -0.91
01/11 19:00
upd 02/11 19:24
4h
#496562
↔ neutral range range moderate grind 0.550 normal bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 35% early 6b 0.9ATR — near 0.3ATR 1.51 31% ↑ +0.40 above_value +0.61 — #233325 0.55 bear_high -2.69% +0.31
03/11 11:00
upd 03/11 15:15
1h anchor
#497489
↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind 0.615 expansion bull_high_confirmed
69%
noisy_chop 48% late 8b 2.1ATR — near 0.5ATR 1.07 66% ↑ +0.62 value +1.57 — #233735 0.75 range_medium +0.09% +0.76
03/11 17:00
upd 03/11 18:10
15m
#497430
↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind 0.614 normal bull_high
66%
noisy_chop 43% late 1b 1.8ATR — — 0.47 55% ↑ +0.17 above_value +1.66 — #233617 0.75 range_low +0.56% +0.32
03/11 17:45
upd 03/11 18:02
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down late 29b — 5.985×ATR p88 -1.131×ATR p72
4h ↑ up early 6b — 2.688×ATR p30 +0.947×ATR p48
1h ↑ up late 8b — 2.748×ATR p44 +2.13×ATR p94
15m ↑ up late 1b — 1.315×ATR p3 +1.797×ATR p80

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.8155
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.79×ATR dur=59b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 0.00417079
  5. tp_price: 0.00493103
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.81545657139688
  8. exit_rules:
  9. expires_at: 2026-11-04T11:14:57.084469
  10. max_bars: 12
  11. max_bars_tf: 1h
  12. confidence_pre_ob: 0.81545657139688
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.0336
  14. obi_top10 : 0.0204
  15. micro_price : 0.00441406
  16. spread_pct : 0.022655
  17. mid_price : 0.0044145
  18. bid_wall_price : 0.00439
  19. bid_wall_size : 100331008
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.00442
  22. ask_wall_size : 99702175
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : 0.0301
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0029
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7147
  30. aggregation_tick : 1.0E-5
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.0042825
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.004074
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.00417825
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1793538000
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1793746800
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.7942
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    59
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.8155
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1793736000
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.0042825
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.6271
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    3
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    1.4138
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    1
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    1
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    8
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    10
  59. regime : bull_high
  60. atr_entry : 7.462E-5
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
59
inside_close_ratio
0.6271
bars_since_breakout
3
distance_to_edge_atr
1.4138

Signaux confirmants (4)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 18:15 0.00438800 0%
2 18:21 0.00438800 0%
3 18:28 0.00438800 0%
4 18:36 0.00438800 0%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7147ms Confidence avant OB : 82% → 82%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.034
avg 0.030 ± 0.003
OBI Top 10 0.020

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.0044
Micro Price
0.0044
Spread
0.0227%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.0044
Size
100,331,008.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.0044
Size
99,702,175.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.004388 0.004171 0.004931 2.5 0.002832
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.004388
  • Stop Loss: 0.004171
  • Take Profit: 0.004931

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.004171 - 0.004388 = -0.000217

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.004388 - 0.004931 = -0.000543

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.000543 / -0.000217 = 2.5023

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
161.6132 100 36830.7168 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.000217

Taille de position = 8 / -0.000217 = -36866.36

Taille de position USD = -36866.36 x 0.004388 = -161.77

Donc, tu peux acheter -36866.36 avec un stoploss a 0.004171

Avec un position size USD de -161.77$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -36866.36 x -0.000217 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -36866.36 x -0.000543 = 20.02

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.02$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -36866.36
  • Taille de position USD -161.77
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.02
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5023

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
12.37 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
4.95 % 7.99 $
PNL PNL %
-7.99 $ -4.95
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-5.2644 % 106.45 % 2
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.004388 0.004171 0.004931 2.5 0.002832
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.004388
  • Stop Loss: 0.004171
  • Take Profit: 0.004931

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.004171 - 0.004388 = -0.000217

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.004388 - 0.004931 = -0.000543

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.000543 / -0.000217 = 2.5023

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.004931
            [entry_price] => 0.004388
            [stop_loss] => 0.0041493
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-11-04 02:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.004931
            [entry_price] => 0.004388
            [stop_loss] => 0.0041276
            [rr_ratio] => 2.09
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-11-04 02:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.004931
            [entry_price] => 0.004388
            [stop_loss] => 0.0041059
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-11-04 03:00:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -4.945% (0.0002)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.912% 0.2R -2.712% 0.6R 0.3× 12
2h +0.912% 0.2R -3.760% 0.8R 0.2× 24
4h +0.912% 0.2R -6.518% 1.3R 0.1× 48
8h +0.912% 0.2R -6.609% 1.3R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +2.256% 0.5R -6.609% 1.3R 0.3× 143
24h +4.057% 0.8R -6.609% 1.3R 0.6× 288
36h +4.057% 0.8R -6.609% 1.3R 0.6× 432
48h +4.057% 0.8R -12.329% 2.5R 0.3× 576
72h +4.057% 0.8R -12.899% 2.6R 0.3× 864
⏱ MFE in 959 min MAE in 274 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.