Short Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1.33 TAO at 186.96$ per unit. Take profit: 171.9066 (8.05 %) & Stop Loss: 192.9813 (3.22 %)
29 Jul 2026 at 17:07:01
hyperliquid
TAO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Jul 2026 17:07
→ 22:05
· 4 hours
Position
Entry 186.96$
Qty 1.3286 TAO
Size 248.3964$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 171.9066 (+8.05%)
TP $ 20$
SL 192.9813 (-3.22%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-3.22%
/ -8$
MAE -3.84%
MFE +0.00%
0.0R
expires
30 Jul 05:06
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 52696)
#30 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/07/2026 17:00
score du 29/07/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4514
Quality Score
0.488
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#30 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.22 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#30 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.22 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | 0.53×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
9.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/07 17:01
29/07 17:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 28/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/07 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/07 16:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #1149
Voir snapshot →
range
ranging
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Operational |
bear
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.70
Transition risk :
0.30
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.57
Snapshot évalué :
29/07 17:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
29/07/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.4881
Score SMA
0.5476
Rank
#30
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4514
Rank Norm SMA
0.7255
Calculé le
29/07/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4311 | r1h: 0.037% · r4h: -1.491% · r1d: -2.95% · r3d: -4.33% · ema21_slope: -0.0360% · dist_ema21: -1.888% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4248 | rs_1h: 0.037% · rs_4h: -1.136% · rs_1d: -2.45% · rs_3d: -2.70% · beta_24h: 1.458 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3538 | rvol_20: 0.94× · zscore_50: 0.053 · trend: 10.06% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5455 | ADX: 16.9 (weak) · Chop: 49.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.214% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.221%
(6.0213)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.038% | 0.6R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.220% | 0.7R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.353% | 0.7R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.835% | 1.2R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.835% | 1.2R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -4.514% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | — | — | 0.61 | bear_high | -4.75% | -0.82 | 28/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | — | 0.65 | bear_high | -1.28% | -0.33 | 29/07 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | 0.67 | bear_medium | -1.08% | -0.43 | 29/07 16:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | expansion | bear_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | 0.64 | range_medium | -0.75% | -0.09 | 29/07 16:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 44b | — | 9.518×ATR | p92 | -0.064×ATR | p7 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 2.848×ATR | p50 | -0.74×ATR | p72 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 2b | — | 2.781×ATR | p57 | -1.298×ATR | p88 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 9b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | -0.782×ATR | p65 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8266
- reason: down_bo width=2.14×ATR dur=24b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 192.9813428
- tp_price: 171.906643
- atr:
- score: 0.82663559571617
- expires_at: 2026-07-30T09:06:54.136126
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.82663559571617
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0743
- obi_top10 : 0.0168
- micro_price : 187.22609984
- spread_pct : 0.005341
- mid_price : 187.225
- bid_wall_price : 186
- bid_wall_size : 4568.3402
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0611
- obi_top5_std : 0.0141
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6984
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
195.13
- balance_zone_bottom:
190.39
- balance_zone_mid:
192.76
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785276000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785358800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.1415
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
24
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: forming
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8266
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785351600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
190.39
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.75
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
2
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.5496
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 2.21342798 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
24
inside_close_ratio
0.75
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
1.5496
Signaux confirmants (9)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:07 | 186.96000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 17:14 | 186.96000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 17:21 | 187.73000000 | +0.412% |
| 4 | 17:28 | 187.73000000 | +0.412% |
| 5 | 17:35 | 188.38000000 | +0.76% |
| 6 | 17:42 | 188.38000000 | +0.76% |
| 7 | 17:49 | 188.29000000 | +0.711% |
| 8 | 17:55 | 188.29000000 | +0.711% |
| 9 | 18:02 | 188.29000000 | +0.711% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6984ms
Confidence avant OB :
83%
→
83%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.074
avg 0.061
± 0.014
OBI Top 10
0.017
Microstructure
Mid Price
187.2250
Micro Price
187.2261
Spread
0.0053%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
186.0000
Size
4,568.34
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 186.96 | 192.9813 | 171.9066 | 2.5 | 211.38 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 186.96
- Stop Loss: 192.9813
- Take Profit: 171.9066
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 192.9813 - 186.96 = 6.0213
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 186.96 - 171.9066 = 15.0534
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 15.0534 / 6.0213 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 248.3964 | 100 | 1.3286 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 6.0213
Taille de position = 8 / 6.0213 = 1.33
Taille de position USD = 1.33 x 186.96 = 248.66
Donc, tu peux acheter 1.33 avec un stoploss a 192.9813
Avec un position size USD de 248.66$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1.33 x 6.0213 = 8.01
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.01$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1.33 x 15.0534 = 20.02
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.02$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1.33
- Taille de position USD 248.66
- Perte potentielle 8.01
- Gain potentiel 20.02
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 8.05 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.22 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -3.22 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.2253 % | 100.15 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 186.96 | 192.9813 | 171.9066 | 2.5 | 211.38 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 186.96
- Stop Loss: 192.9813
- Take Profit: 171.9066
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 192.9813 - 186.96 = 6.0213
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 186.96 - 171.9066 = 15.0534
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 15.0534 / 6.0213 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 171.9066
[entry_price] => 186.96
[stop_loss] => 193.58343
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-07-30 02:20:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.221%
(6.0213)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.038% | 0.6R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.220% | 0.7R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.353% | 0.7R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.835% | 1.2R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.835% | 1.2R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -4.514% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Commentaires
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