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Short Trade on ZEC

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29 Jul 2026 at 17:09:35 hyperliquid

Short Trade on ZEC (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1.02 ZEC at 458.29$ per unit. Take profit: 438.7067 (4.27 %) & Stop Loss: 466.1233 (1.71 %)

ZEC SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 29 Jul 2026 17:09 → 18:05 · 55 minutes

Position

Entry 458.29$

Qty 1.0213 ZEC

Size 468.0418$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)

Risk Setup

TP 438.7067 (+4.27%)

TP $ 20$

SL 466.1233 (-1.71%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -1.71% / -8$ MAE -4.30% MFE +0.13% 0.1R expires 30 Jul 05:09

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 52713)
#23 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/07/2026 17:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4304

Quality Score
0.511
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#23 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#23 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near -1.06×ATR
4h near 0.25×ATR
1d clear 1.16×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down early OK
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
75.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/07 17:02
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/07 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

29/07 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

29/07 16:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #1149
Voir snapshot →
range ranging range_breakdown_risk
Strategic range

—

range

0

Operational bear

—

expansion

+1

Tactical range

—

range

0

Micro —

—

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.70
Transition risk : 0.30
Score contribution (this trade) +1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.57
Snapshot évalué : 29/07 17:00 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Calculé le 29/07/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.5106
Score SMA
0.4779
Rank
#23 / 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4304
Rank Norm SMA
0.3586
Calculé le
29/07/2026 17:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4417 r1h: 0.538% · r4h: -0.332% · r1d: -1.72% · r3d: -6.27% · ema21_slope: -0.0391% · dist_ema21: -0.457%
Force Relative 25% 0.4690 rs_1h: 0.538% · rs_4h: 0.022% · rs_1d: -1.21% · rs_3d: -4.64% · beta_24h: 1.601
Volume 20% 0.4342 rvol_20: 1.16× · zscore_50: 0.366 · trend: 27.95%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4931 ADX: 19.8 (weak) · Chop: 59.5 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.456% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.709% (7.8333)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.129% 0.1R -1.767% 1.0R 0.1× 12
2h +0.129% 0.1R -2.416% 1.4R 0.1× 24
4h +0.129% 0.1R -2.416% 1.4R 0.1× 48
8h +0.129% 0.1R -3.515% 2.1R 0.0× 96
12h ★ +0.129% 0.1R -4.301% 2.5R 0.0× 144
24h +0.129% 0.1R -4.519% 2.6R 0.0× 288

computed 3 months ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.09
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate fading compression bull_high
54%
noisy_chop 41% mid — — 0.42 bear_high -4.75% -0.42 28/07 20:00
4h ↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition moderate balanced expansion_after_compression bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 39% mid near 0.2ATR — 0.69 bear_high -1.28% -0.48 29/07 16:00
1h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind expansion bear_high
55%
noisy_chop 35% early near -1.1ATR near -0.2ATR 0.60 bear_medium -1.08% -0.04 29/07 16:00
15m ↓ down range range moderate fading expansion_after_compression range_high
36%
noisy_chop 36% early — — — range_medium -0.75% +0.08 29/07 16:30
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 14b — 3.542×ATR p17 -0.757×ATR p68
4h ↓ down mid 18b — 4.132×ATR p72 -0.33×ATR p35
1h ↓ down early 2b — 1.984×ATR p31 -0.232×ATR p23
15m ↑ up early 2b — 1.266×ATR p0 +0.013×ATR p3

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.8492
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.00×ATR dur=33b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 466.12331738
  5. tp_price: 438.70670655
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.84921138352914
  8. expires_at: 2026-07-30T09:09:27.538401
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.84921138352914
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : -0.0985
  10. obi_top10 : -0.0985
  11. micro_price : 458.44010968
  12. spread_pct : 0.002181
  13. mid_price : 458.445
  14. bid_wall_price :
  15. bid_wall_size :
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price :
  18. ask_wall_size :
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : -0.0958
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0021
  23. pressure_side : neutral
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 6987
  26. aggregation_tick : 1
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    471.885
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    459.08
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    465.4825
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1785243600
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1785358800
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    1.9982
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    33
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: established
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.8492
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1785355200
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    459.08
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.7879
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    1
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.1233
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    6
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    13
  54. regime : bear_high
  55. atr_entry : 6.40817382
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
33
inside_close_ratio
0.7879
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1233

Signaux confirmants (4)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 17:09 458.29000000 0%
2 17:17 458.29000000 0%
3 17:24 458.40000000 +0.024%
4 17:31 458.40000000 +0.024%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6987ms Confidence avant OB : 85% → 85%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.099
avg -0.096 ± 0.002
OBI Top 10 -0.099

Microstructure

Mid Price
458.4450
Micro Price
458.4401
Spread
0.0022%

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
458.29 466.1233 438.7067 2.5 940
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 458.29
  • Stop Loss: 466.1233
  • Take Profit: 438.7067

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 466.1233 - 458.29 = 7.8333

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 458.29 - 438.7067 = 19.5833

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 19.5833 / 7.8333 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
468.0418 100 1.0213 5.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 7.8333

Taille de position = 8 / 7.8333 = 1.02

Taille de position USD = 1.02 x 458.29 = 467.46

Donc, tu peux acheter 1.02 avec un stoploss a 466.1233

Avec un position size USD de 467.46$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1.02 x 7.8333 = 7.99

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.99$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1.02 x 19.5833 = 19.97

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1.02
  • Taille de position USD 467.46
  • Perte potentielle 7.99
  • Gain potentiel 19.97
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
4.27 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
1.71 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -1.71
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.7674 % 103.41 % 2
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
458.29 466.1233 438.7067 2.5 940
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 458.29
  • Stop Loss: 466.1233
  • Take Profit: 438.7067

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 466.1233 - 458.29 = 7.8333

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 458.29 - 438.7067 = 19.5833

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 19.5833 / 7.8333 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 438.7067
            [entry_price] => 458.29
            [stop_loss] => 466.90663
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-29 22:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 438.7067
            [entry_price] => 458.29
            [stop_loss] => 467.68996
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-29 22:25:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 438.7067
            [entry_price] => 458.29
            [stop_loss] => 468.47329
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-29 22:25:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 438.7067
            [entry_price] => 458.29
            [stop_loss] => 470.03995
            [rr_ratio] => 1.67
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-30 02:05:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.709% (7.8333)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.129% 0.1R -1.767% 1.0R 0.1× 12
2h +0.129% 0.1R -2.416% 1.4R 0.1× 24
4h +0.129% 0.1R -2.416% 1.4R 0.1× 48
8h +0.129% 0.1R -3.515% 2.1R 0.0× 96
12h ★ +0.129% 0.1R -4.301% 2.5R 0.0× 144
24h +0.129% 0.1R -4.519% 2.6R 0.0× 288

computed 3 months ago

Commentaires

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