Long Trade on PENGU (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 33535.95 PENGU at 0.00608$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006672 (9.81 %) & Stop Loss: 0.005837 (3.93 %)
30 Jul 2026 at 18:39:12
hyperliquid
PENGU
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
30 Jul 2026 18:39
→ 06:35
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.006076$
Qty 33535.9463 PENGU
Size 203.7644$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.006672 (+9.81%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 0.005837 (-3.93%)
SL $ 8.02$
RR 2.49
Status
loss
PnL
-0.61%
/ -1.24$
MAE -1.61%
MFE +1.48%
0.4R
expires
31 Jul 06:39
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 53900)
#1 / 43
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 30/07/2026 18:00
score du 30/07/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5261
Quality Score
0.751
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#1 / 43
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.93 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#1 / 43
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.93 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.83×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.95×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.74×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/07 18:31
30/07 18:31
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 29/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 30/07 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1) 30/07 18:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
30/07/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.7509
Score SMA
0.4975
Rank
#1
/ 43
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5261
Rank Norm SMA
0.4398
Calculé le
30/07/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6322 | r1h: -0.588% · r4h: 3.837% · r1d: 6.25% · r3d: -0.10% · ema21_slope: 0.1165% · dist_ema21: 3.262% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6204 | rs_1h: -0.568% · rs_4h: 3.999% · rs_1d: 4.86% · rs_3d: -0.01% · beta_24h: 1.013 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 6.98× · zscore_50: 4.480 · trend: 186.52% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7074 | ADX: 24.9 (weak) · Chop: 25.0 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.042% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.934%
(0.0002)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.115% | 0.0R | -0.510% | 0.1R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.115% | 0.0R | -0.971% | 0.3R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.481% | 0.4R | -1.020% | 0.3R | 1.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.481% | 0.4R | -1.613% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.481% | 0.4R | -1.613% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.481% | 0.4R | -2.304% | 0.6R | 0.6× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.62
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near -1.4ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_high | -4.05% | -0.65 | 29/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.72 | bull_high | +0.82% | +0.07 | 30/07 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | normal | bull_high_confirmed |
61%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | — | near -1.8ATR | 0.57 | bull_medium | +0.87% | +0.29 | 30/07 18:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | expansion_after_compression | bull_medium_confirmed |
66%
|
noisy_chop 50% | early | — | — | — | range_low | +0.70% | +0.41 | 30/07 18:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 26b | — | 3.111×ATR | p28 | -0.446×ATR | p44 |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | 6b | — | 3.803×ATR | p61 | +1.797×ATR | p98 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 14b | — | 5.571×ATR | p98 | +2.112×ATR | p97 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 1b | — | 1.23×ATR | p0 | +0.44×ATR | p46 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8216
- reason: up_bo width=1.92×ATR dur=43b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.00583745
- tp_price: 0.00667238
- atr:
- score: 0.82163880052323
- expires_at: 2026-07-31T10:39:04.991827
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.82163880052323
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.081
- obi_top10 : 0.0018
- micro_price : 0.00607901
- spread_pct : 0.01645
- mid_price : 0.0060795
- bid_wall_price : 0.00604
- bid_wall_size : 23890277.4
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0416
- obi_top5_std : 0.022
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6846
- aggregation_tick : 1.0E-5
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.005907
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.005781
- balance_zone_mid:
0.005844
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785297600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785448800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.9236
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
43
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8216
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785438000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.005907
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7209
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
3
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
2.58
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 6.55E-5 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
43
inside_close_ratio
0.7209
bars_since_breakout
3
distance_to_edge_atr
2.58
Signaux confirmants (6)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:39 | 0.00607600 | 0% |
| 2 | 18:45 | 0.00607600 | 0% |
| 3 | 18:51 | 0.00606500 | -0.181% |
| 4 | 18:57 | 0.00606500 | -0.181% |
| 5 | 19:04 | 0.00606500 | -0.181% |
| 6 | 19:09 | 0.00606800 | -0.132% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6846ms
Confidence avant OB :
82%
→
82%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.081
avg -0.042
± 0.022
OBI Top 10
0.002
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0061
Micro Price
0.0061
Spread
0.0165%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0060
Size
23,890,277.40
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006076 | 0.005837 | 0.006672 | 2.49 | 0.006939 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.006076
- Stop Loss: 0.005837
- Take Profit: 0.006672
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.005837 - 0.006076 = -0.000239
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006076 - 0.006672 = -0.000596
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.000596 / -0.000239 = 2.4937
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 203.7644 | 100 | 33535.9463 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -0.000239
Taille de position = 8 / -0.000239 = -33472.8
Taille de position USD = -33472.8 x 0.006076 = -203.38
Donc, tu peux acheter -33472.8 avec un stoploss a 0.005837
Avec un position size USD de -203.38$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -33472.8 x -0.000239 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -33472.8 x -0.000596 = 19.95
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.95$
Résumé
- Taille de position -33472.8
- Taille de position USD -203.38
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.95
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4937
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 9.81 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.93 % | 8.02 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -1.24 $ | -0.61 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6129 % | 41 % | 18 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006076 | 0.005837 | 0.006672 | 2.49 | 0.006939 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.006076
- Stop Loss: 0.005837
- Take Profit: 0.006672
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.005837 - 0.006076 = -0.000239
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006076 - 0.006672 = -0.000596
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.000596 / -0.000239 = 2.4937
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.934%
(0.0002)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.115% | 0.0R | -0.510% | 0.1R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.115% | 0.0R | -0.971% | 0.3R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.481% | 0.4R | -1.020% | 0.3R | 1.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.481% | 0.4R | -1.613% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.481% | 0.4R | -1.613% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.481% | 0.4R | -2.304% | 0.6R | 0.6× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Commentaires
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