Short Trade on AAVE

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31 Jul 2026 at 18:10:04 hyperliquid

Short Trade on AAVE (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 3.08 AAVE at 94.114$ per unit. Take profit: 91.7612 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 96.7084 (2.76 %)

AAVE SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 31 Jul 2026 18:10 → 18:20 · 9 minutes

Position

Entry 94.114$

Qty 3.0836 AAVE

Size 290.2091$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 91.7612 (+2.5%)

TP $ 7.26$

SL 96.7084 (-2.76%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.91

Status loss PnL -0.02% / -0.046$ MAE -0.17% MFE +2.90% 1.1R expires 31 Jul 18:20 Exit rank_decay: short rank=4 <= threshold=37/47

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 54956)

#4 / 47 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 31/07/2026 18:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3200

Quality Score

0.557

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#4 / 47 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

98 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

+2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.76 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#4 / 47 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

98 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

+2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.76 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.71×ATR
4h	clear	0.52×ATR
1d	near	0.28×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

+2 OK

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

N/A

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

15.1M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
31/07 18:00

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 30/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 31/07 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 31/07 17:00 Score : 0 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

30/07 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

31/07 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

31/07 17:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 1198

range ranging range_breakdown_risk

Strategic	range —	range 0
Operational	bear —	expansion +1
Tactical	bear —	transition +1
Micro	— —

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 0.63

Transition risk : 0.37

Score contribution (this trade) +2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score —

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	—
1h	—
4h	—
24h	—

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	—	—
4h	—	—
24h	—	—

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : —

Universe : —

Regime confidence : 0.53

Snapshot évalué : 31/07 18:00 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 31/07/2026 18:00

Score brut

0.5565

Score SMA

0.5162

Rank

#4 / 47

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3200

Rank Norm SMA

0.5321

Calculé le

31/07/2026 18:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2799	r1h: -1.370% · r4h: -3.290% · r1d: -4.93% · r3d: -6.75% · ema21_slope: -0.1514% · dist_ema21: -3.227%
Force Relative	25%	0.3034	rs_1h: -1.495% · rs_4h: -2.960% · rs_1d: -2.30% · rs_3d: -5.27% · beta_24h: 0.520
Volume	20%	1.0000	rvol_20: 5.12× · zscore_50: 4.588 · trend: 110.60%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6446	ADX: 18.4 (weak) · Chop: 39.3 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.184% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 4h) Initial Risk: -2.757% (2.5944)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.145%	0.4R	-0.170%	0.1R	6.7×	12
2h	+1.145%	0.4R	-0.170%	0.1R	6.7×	24
4h ★	+2.900%	1.1R	-0.170%	0.1R	17.1×	48
8h	+3.396%	1.2R	-0.170%	0.1R	20.0×	96
12h	+4.143%	1.5R	-0.170%	0.1R	24.4×	144

computed 2 months ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -60

ML Pullback Score: 6.42

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	normal	bull_high	59%	noisy_chop 36%	early	near 0.3ATR	near -0.5ATR	0.72	bear_high	-6.38%	-0.03	30/07 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	balanced	normal	bear_high	54%	noisy_chop 45%	late	—	—	0.53	bear_high	-2.02%	-0.43	31/07 16:00
1h	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	strong	fading	normal	bear_high_confirmed	55%	noisy_chop 43%	late	—	—	0.55	bear_medium	-1.67%	-0.36	31/07 17:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	normal	bear_medium_confirmed	59%	noisy_chop 53%	late	—	—	—	bear_low	-0.91%	-0.32	31/07 17:30
5m	—

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	13b	—	1.703×ATR	p0	-0.038×ATR	p4
4h	↓ down	late	5b	—	3.384×ATR	p55	-1.234×ATR	p86
1h	↓ down	late	20b	—	6.762×ATR	p95	-2.039×ATR	p96
15m	↓ down	late	16b	—	6.859×ATR	p100	-2.175×ATR	p97

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 96.70837799
tp_price: 91.76115
atr: 1.0377512
expires_at: 2026-08-01T04:10:04+00:00

Details

rank: 48
total: 49
score: 0.2799
delta_2h: -0.1496
extension_atr: -2.56
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.32
confidence: 0.979

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
94.114	96.7084	91.7612	0.91	134.05

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 94.114
Stop Loss: 96.7084
Take Profit: 91.7612

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 96.7084 - 94.114 = 2.5944
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 94.114 - 91.7612 = 2.3528
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 2.3528 / 2.5944 = 0.9069

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
290.2091	100	3.0836	3.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 2.5944

Taille de position = 8 / 2.5944 = 3.08

Taille de position USD = 3.08 x 94.114 = 289.87

Donc, tu peux acheter 3.08 avec un stoploss a 96.7084

Avec un position size USD de 289.87$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 3.08 x 2.5944 = 7.99

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.99$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 3.08 x 2.3528 = 7.25

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 7.25$

Résumé

Taille de position 3.08
Taille de position USD 289.87
Perte potentielle 7.99
Gain potentiel 7.25
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.9069

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	7.26 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
2.76 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-0.046 $	-0.02

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-0.119 %	4.32 %	2

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
94.114	96.7084	91.7612	0.91	134.05

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 94.114
Stop Loss: 96.7084
Take Profit: 91.7612

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 96.7084 - 94.114 = 2.5944
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 94.114 - 91.7612 = 2.3528
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 2.3528 / 2.5944 = 0.9069

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 91.7612
            [entry_price] => 94.114
            [stop_loss] => 96.96784
            [rr_ratio] => 0.82
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-01 00:55:00+00
            [result] => win
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 91.7612
            [entry_price] => 94.114
            [stop_loss] => 97.22728
            [rr_ratio] => 0.76
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-01 00:55:00+00
            [result] => win
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 91.7612
            [entry_price] => 94.114
            [stop_loss] => 97.48672
            [rr_ratio] => 0.7
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-01 00:55:00+00
            [result] => win
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 91.7612
            [entry_price] => 94.114
            [stop_loss] => 98.0056
            [rr_ratio] => 0.6
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-01 00:55:00+00
            [result] => win
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 4h) Initial Risk: -2.757% (2.5944)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.145%	0.4R	-0.170%	0.1R	6.7×	12
2h	+1.145%	0.4R	-0.170%	0.1R	6.7×	24
4h ★	+2.900%	1.1R	-0.170%	0.1R	17.1×	48
8h	+3.396%	1.2R	-0.170%	0.1R	20.0×	96
12h	+4.143%	1.5R	-0.170%	0.1R	24.4×	144

computed 2 months ago

Commentaires

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