Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 2815.69 XPL at 0.0734$ per unit. Take profit: 0.0716 (2.49 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07627 (3.87 %)
31 Jul 2026 at 19:10:04
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
31 Jul 2026 19:10
→ 22:15
· 3 hours
Position
Entry 0.07343$
Qty 2815.6919 XPL
Size 206.7647$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.0716 (+2.49%)
TP $ 5.15$
SL 0.07627 (-3.87%)
SL $ 8$
RR 0.64
Status
loss
PnL
-2.66%
/ -5.5$
MAE -3.57%
MFE +0.34%
0.1R
expires
31 Jul 22:20
Exit
rank_decay: short rank=3 <= threshold=33/43
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 55026)
#42 / 47
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 31/07/2026 19:00
score du 31/07/2026 19:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1488
Quality Score
0.437
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#42 / 47
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#42 / 47
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | 0.32×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+2
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
N/A
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
N/A
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
N/A
regime + leadership
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
31/07 19:02
31/07 19:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 30/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 31/07 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 31/07 18:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1199
range
ranging
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Operational |
bear
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
— |
transition
+1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.53
Snapshot évalué :
31/07 19:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
31/07/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4367
Score SMA
0.4740
Rank
#42
/ 47
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1488
Rank Norm SMA
0.2545
Calculé le
31/07/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2942 | r1h: -1.345% · r4h: -2.132% · r1d: -5.60% · r3d: -11.32% · ema21_slope: -0.1597% · dist_ema21: -2.949% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2885 | rs_1h: -1.337% · rs_4h: -1.884% · rs_1d: -2.65% · rs_3d: -10.01% · beta_24h: 0.693 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4336 | rvol_20: 1.37× · zscore_50: 0.183 · trend: 11.91% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5975 | ADX: 21.9 (weak) · Chop: 48.7 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.624% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
3.2h)
Initial Risk: -3.868%
(0.0028)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.129% | 0.0R | -1.046% | 0.3R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.341% | 0.1R | -2.250% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 3.2h ★ | +0.341% | 0.1R | -3.569% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 38 |
| 4h | +0.341% | 0.1R | -3.569% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.341% | 0.1R | -6.015% | 1.6R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.341% | 0.1R | -6.015% | 1.6R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.18
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
49%
|
noisy_chop 35% | late | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -6.38% | -0.94 | 30/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid | — | — | 0.38 | bear_high | -1.99% | -0.84 | 31/07 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | expansion | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | — | 0.50 | bear_medium | -1.76% | -0.25 | 31/07 18:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 49% | mid | — | — | 0.47 | bear_low | -0.94% | -0.29 | 31/07 18:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 27b | — | 5.903×ATR | p80 | -0.815×ATR | p70 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 1.994×ATR | p0 | -0.686×ATR | p66 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 2.283×ATR | p42 | -0.828×ATR | p73 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 2.396×ATR | p32 | -0.997×ATR | p80 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.07627422
- tp_price: 0.07159717
- atr: 0.00113649
- expires_at: 2026-08-01T05:10:04+00:00
Details
- rank: 48
- total: 49
- score: 0.2942
- delta_2h: -0.1103
- extension_atr: -1.59
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1488
- confidence: 0.979
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07343 | 0.07627 | 0.0716 | 0.64 | 0.07631 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07343
- Stop Loss: 0.07627
- Take Profit: 0.0716
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07627 - 0.07343 = 0.00284
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07343 - 0.0716 = 0.00183
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00183 / 0.00284 = 0.6444
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 206.7647 | 100 | 2815.6919 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00284
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00284 = 2816.9
Taille de position USD = 2816.9 x 0.07343 = 206.84
Donc, tu peux acheter 2816.9 avec un stoploss a 0.07627
Avec un position size USD de 206.84$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2816.9 x 0.00284 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2816.9 x 0.00183 = 5.15
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 5.15$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2816.9
- Taille de position USD 206.84
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 5.15
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.6444
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.49 % | 5.15 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.87 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -5.5 $ | -2.66 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5694 % | 92.29 % | 12 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07343 | 0.07627 | 0.0716 | 0.64 | 0.07631 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07343
- Stop Loss: 0.07627
- Take Profit: 0.0716
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07627 - 0.07343 = 0.00284
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07343 - 0.0716 = 0.00183
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00183 / 0.00284 = 0.6444
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
3.2h)
Initial Risk: -3.868%
(0.0028)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.129% | 0.0R | -1.046% | 0.3R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.341% | 0.1R | -2.250% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 3.2h ★ | +0.341% | 0.1R | -3.569% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 38 |
| 4h | +0.341% | 0.1R | -3.569% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.341% | 0.1R | -6.015% | 1.6R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.341% | 0.1R | -6.015% | 1.6R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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