Short Trade on KAITO (BosPullback)
With 217.08 KAITO at 1.097$ per unit. Take profit: 1.0049 (8.4 %) & Stop Loss: 1.1339 (3.36 %)
Short Trade on KAITO (BosPullback)
With 217.08 KAITO at 1.097$ per unit. Take profit: 1.0049 (8.4 %) & Stop Loss: 1.1339 (3.36 %)
Position
Entry 1.097$
Qty 217.0804 KAITO
Size 238.1372$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 1.0049 (+8.4%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 1.1339 (-3.36%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.5
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1256
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1256
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.90×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.73×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 3.06×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (-3) 31/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 01/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/08 04:00 Score : -4 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
|
1H_regime : bear_high 15m_regime : range_high |
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
— |
transition
+1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3616 | r1h: 0.291% · r4h: -0.676% · r1d: -2.57% · r3d: -10.68% · ema21_slope: -0.1139% · dist_ema21: 0.769% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4141 | rs_1h: 0.326% · rs_4h: -0.744% · rs_1d: -1.16% · rs_3d: -8.34% · beta_24h: -0.979 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1608 | rvol_20: 0.11× · zscore_50: -0.589 · trend: -83.91% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4199 | ADX: 17.7 (weak) · Chop: 66.3 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.228% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.957% | 0.3R | -0.146% | 0.0R | 6.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.604% | 0.5R | -0.292% | 0.1R | 5.5× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +2.133% | 0.6R | -1.778% | 0.5R | 1.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.133% | 0.6R | -6.345% | 1.9R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.133% | 0.6R | -13.254% | 3.9R | 0.2× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bull_high_confirmed |
61%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | 0.44 | bear_high | -6.49% | +1.00 | 31/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | — | — | 0.05 | bear_high | -1.73% | -0.81 | 01/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | — | — | -0.07 | bear_low | -1.22% | +0.37 | 01/08 04:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | range_high |
41%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | near -0.1ATR | near -0.1ATR | 0.01 | range_low | -0.28% | +0.13 | 01/08 04:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 1.968×ATR | p0 | +0.034×ATR | p4 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 11b | — | 1.796×ATR | p0 | -0.047×ATR | p5 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 10b | — | 2.065×ATR | p23 | +0.221×ATR | p24 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 1.321×ATR | p4 | +0.093×ATR | p10 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
1.0497
139
0.4126
0.5369
0.2958
0.2408
0.3408
1
0.4142
0.4158
0.3679
0
0.4822
0.288
0.0373
-0.0379
0.3333
0.223
-0.9219
0.4667
0.5333
-1
10
1
0.5184
0.5141
3.2644
0.5
1.1945
2.3682
-0.9219
0.6422
0.3068
0
-0.4237
0.4164
0.4112
0.173
0.288
-14.4919
5.8631
1
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1.0497
1.132
1.132
1.0497
1.132
1.0816
1.1068
0.8207
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:22 | 1.09700000 | 0% |
| 2 | 04:27 | 1.09700000 | 0% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.097 | 1.1339 | 1.0049 | 2.5 | 0.2492 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.1339 - 1.097 = 0.0369
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.097 - 1.0049 = 0.0921
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0921 / 0.0369 = 2.4959
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 238.1372 | 100 | 217.0804 | 2.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0369 = 216.8
Taille de position USD = 216.8 x 1.097 = 237.83
Donc, tu peux acheter 216.8 avec un stoploss a 1.1339
Avec un position size USD de 237.83$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 216.8 x 0.0369 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 216.8 x 0.0921 = 19.97
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 8.4 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.36 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.01 $ | -3.36 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -4.0109 % | 119.24 % | 9 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.097 | 1.1339 | 1.0049 | 2.5 | 0.2492 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.1339 - 1.097 = 0.0369
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.097 - 1.0049 = 0.0921
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0921 / 0.0369 = 2.4959
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.957% | 0.3R | -0.146% | 0.0R | 6.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.604% | 0.5R | -0.292% | 0.1R | 5.5× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +2.133% | 0.6R | -1.778% | 0.5R | 1.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.133% | 0.6R | -6.345% | 1.9R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.133% | 0.6R | -13.254% | 3.9R | 0.2× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
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