Short Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 2304.91 XPL at 0.0729$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06423 (11.89 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07637 (4.76 %)
01 Aug 2026 at 14:39:48
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Aug 2026 14:39
→ 21:05
· 6 hours
Position
Entry 0.0729$
Qty 2304.9109 XPL
Size 168.0372$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06423 (+11.89%)
TP $ 19.98$
SL 0.07637 (-4.76%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-4.76%
/ -8$
MAE -6.20%
MFE +0.43%
0.1R
expires
02 Aug 02:39
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 55803)
#34 / 35
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/08/2026 14:00
score du 01/08/2026 14:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3194
Quality Score
0.437
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
74 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
3
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
5.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/08 14:31
01/08 14:31
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 55803)
#34 / 35
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/08/2026 14:00
score du 01/08/2026 14:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3194
Quality Score
0.437
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#34 / 35
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
74 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#34 / 35
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
74 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.44×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | 0.06×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
5.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/08 14:31
01/08 14:31
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 01/08 14:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
01/08/2026 14:00
Score brut
0.4367
Score SMA
0.4869
Rank
#34
/ 35
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3194
Rank Norm SMA
0.4004
Calculé le
01/08/2026 14:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4102 | r1h: -0.345% · r4h: -1.419% · r1d: -2.01% · r3d: -4.62% · ema21_slope: 0.0054% · dist_ema21: -1.384% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4347 | rs_1h: -0.189% · rs_4h: -1.016% · rs_1d: -1.35% · rs_3d: -2.34% · beta_24h: 2.076 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1512 | rvol_20: 0.15× · zscore_50: -0.732 · trend: -54.89% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4981 | ADX: 15.5 (weak) · Chop: 54.4 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.256% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.760%
(0.0035)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.435% | 0.1R | -2.122% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.435% | 0.1R | -2.320% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.435% | 0.1R | -3.746% | 0.8R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.435% | 0.1R | -6.184% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.435% | 0.1R | -6.202% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.435% | 0.1R | -6.202% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.22
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
49%
|
noisy_chop 36% | late | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -6.90% | -0.93 | 31/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | — | 0.40 | bear_high | -2.20% | -0.49 | 01/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high_confirmed |
59%
|
noisy_chop 34% | late | near -1.4ATR | — | 0.49 | bear_low | -1.68% | +0.11 | 01/08 14:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_medium_confirmed |
63%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | near -1.4ATR | — | — | bear_low_confirmed | -1.02% | -0.13 | 01/08 14:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 28b | — | 6.213×ATR | p85 | -0.847×ATR | p73 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 1.793×ATR | p0 | -0.624×ATR | p63 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 12b | — | 4.188×ATR | p89 | -1.109×ATR | p85 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 1b | — | 1.26×ATR | p6 | -1.479×ATR | p92 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7432
- reason: down_bo width=2.96×ATR dur=70b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.07637485
- tp_price: 0.06422689
- atr:
- score: 0.74315502472345
- expires_at: 2026-08-02T06:39:40.693339
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.74315502472345
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0533
- obi_top10 : 0.0643
- micro_price : 0.07320411
- spread_pct : 0.040995
- mid_price : 0.073195
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.0739
- ask_wall_size : 372348
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0815
- obi_top5_std : 0.0403
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6812
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.077847
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.0746895
- balance_zone_mid:
0.07626825
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785358800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785607200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9621
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
70
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7432
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785600000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.0746895
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
2
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.675
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
9
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
9
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00106595 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
70
inside_close_ratio
0.8
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
1.675
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:39 | 0.07290400 | +0.005% |
| 2 | 14:46 | 0.07290400 | +0.005% |
| 3 | 14:51 | 0.07283000 | -0.096% |
| 4 | 14:57 | 0.07283000 | -0.096% |
| 5 | 15:04 | 0.07283000 | -0.096% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6812ms
Confidence avant OB :
74%
→
74%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.053
avg 0.082
± 0.040
OBI Top 10
0.064
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0732
Micro Price
0.0732
Spread
0.0410%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0739
Size
372,348.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0729 | 0.07637 | 0.06423 | 2.5 | 0.08032 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.0729
- Stop Loss: 0.07637
- Take Profit: 0.06423
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07637 - 0.0729 = 0.00347
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.0729 - 0.06423 = 0.00867
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00867 / 0.00347 = 2.4986
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 168.0372 | 100 | 2304.9109 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00347
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00347 = 2305.48
Taille de position USD = 2305.48 x 0.0729 = 168.07
Donc, tu peux acheter 2305.48 avec un stoploss a 0.07637
Avec un position size USD de 168.07$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2305.48 x 0.00347 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2305.48 x 0.00867 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2305.48
- Taille de position USD 168.07
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4986
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 11.89 % | 19.98 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.76 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -4.76 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -4.7764 % | 100.35 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0729 | 0.07637 | 0.06423 | 2.5 | 0.08032 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.0729
- Stop Loss: 0.07637
- Take Profit: 0.06423
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07637 - 0.0729 = 0.00347
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.0729 - 0.06423 = 0.00867
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00867 / 0.00347 = 2.4986
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.760%
(0.0035)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.435% | 0.1R | -2.122% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.435% | 0.1R | -2.320% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.435% | 0.1R | -3.746% | 0.8R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.435% | 0.1R | -6.184% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.435% | 0.1R | -6.202% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.435% | 0.1R | -6.202% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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