Short Trade on DOGE (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 5784.11 DOGE at 0.0686$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06512 (5.05 %) & Stop Loss: 0.06996 (2.01 %)
01 Aug 2026 at 15:07:08
hyperliquid
DOGE
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Aug 2026 15:07
→ 22:05
· 6 hours
Position
Entry 0.06858$
Qty 5784.1082 DOGE
Size 396.6568$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06512 (+5.05%)
TP $ 20.01$
SL 0.06996 (-2.01%)
SL $ 7.98$
RR 2.51
Status
loss
PnL
-2.01%
/ -7.98$
MAE -2.88%
MFE +0.30%
0.2R
expires
02 Aug 03:07
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 55814)
#23 / 35
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/08/2026 15:00
score du 01/08/2026 15:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2458
Quality Score
0.519
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
3
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
11.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/08 15:00
01/08 15:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 55814)
#23 / 35
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/08/2026 15:00
score du 01/08/2026 15:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2458
Quality Score
0.519
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#23 / 35
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.01 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#23 / 35
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.01 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -0.76×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
11.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/08 15:00
01/08 15:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 01/08 14:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1219
range
ranging
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Operational |
bear
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
— |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.60
Transition risk :
0.40
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.51
Snapshot évalué :
01/08 15:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
01/08/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.5193
Score SMA
0.4939
Rank
#23
/ 35
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2458
Rank Norm SMA
0.4880
Calculé le
01/08/2026 15:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3553 | r1h: -1.697% · r4h: -2.533% · r1d: -2.71% · r3d: -3.70% · ema21_slope: -0.0190% · dist_ema21: -2.059% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4029 | rs_1h: -1.143% · rs_4h: -1.312% · rs_1d: -1.53% · rs_3d: -0.37% · beta_24h: 2.207 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5867 | rvol_20: 2.70× · zscore_50: 0.040 · trend: -25.45% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6308 | ADX: 15.7 (weak) · Chop: 31.0 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.577% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.012%
(0.0014)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.302% | 0.2R | -0.053% | 0.0R | 5.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.302% | 0.2R | -0.497% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.302% | 0.2R | -1.269% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.302% | 0.2R | -2.389% | 1.2R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.302% | 0.2R | -2.877% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.302% | 0.2R | -3.822% | 1.9R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.6
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late_trend | bear_trend | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | — | 0.79 | bear_high | -6.90% | -0.27 | 31/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near -0.8ATR | near 0.2ATR | 0.83 | bear_high | -2.20% | +0.13 | 01/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | normal | bear_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | — | — | 0.71 | bear_low_confirmed | -2.13% | -0.09 | 01/08 14:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | volatile_reversal | bear_low_confirmed |
32%
|
choppy 53% | late | — | — | — | bear_low_confirmed | -1.16% | -0.05 | 01/08 14:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 28b | — | 3.888×ATR | p38 | -0.438×ATR | p51 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 7b | — | 1.196×ATR | p0 | -0.445×ATR | p47 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 4.777×ATR | p93 | -3.771×ATR | p99 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 10b | — | 7.197×ATR | p100 | -3.281×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7696
- reason: down_bo width=1.64×ATR dur=63b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.0699601
- tp_price: 0.06511924
- atr:
- score: 0.7695922785049
- expires_at: 2026-08-02T07:07:00.635976
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.7695922785049
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0183
- obi_top10 : -0.0037
- micro_price : 0.06853712
- spread_pct : 0.014592
- mid_price : 0.068535
- bid_wall_price : 0.0673
- bid_wall_size : 34405594.2
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.0697
- ask_wall_size : 28405107
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0897
- obi_top5_std : 0.0662
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7038
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.070249
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.069591
- balance_zone_mid:
0.06992
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785387600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785610800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.6407
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
63
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7696
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785603600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.069591
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6032
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
2
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
2.5284
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
12
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
11
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00040105 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
63
inside_close_ratio
0.6032
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
2.5284
Signaux confirmants (10)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:07 | 0.06857700 | -0.004% |
| 2 | 15:13 | 0.06857700 | -0.004% |
| 3 | 15:19 | 0.06854900 | -0.045% |
| 4 | 15:25 | 0.06854900 | -0.045% |
| 5 | 15:31 | 0.06854900 | -0.045% |
| 6 | 15:37 | 0.06847500 | -0.153% |
| 7 | 15:43 | 0.06847500 | -0.153% |
| 8 | 15:49 | 0.06847300 | -0.156% |
| 9 | 15:55 | 0.06847300 | -0.156% |
| 10 | 16:01 | 0.06847300 | -0.156% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7038ms
Confidence avant OB :
77%
→
77%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.018
avg -0.090
± 0.066
OBI Top 10
-0.004
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0685
Micro Price
0.0685
Spread
0.0146%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0673
Size
34,405,594.20
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0697
Size
28,405,107.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06858 | 0.06996 | 0.06512 | 2.51 | 0.08198 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06858
- Stop Loss: 0.06996
- Take Profit: 0.06512
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06996 - 0.06858 = 0.00138
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06858 - 0.06512 = 0.00346
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00346 / 0.00138 = 2.5072
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 396.6568 | 100 | 5784.1082 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00138
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00138 = 5797.1
Taille de position USD = 5797.1 x 0.06858 = 397.57
Donc, tu peux acheter 5797.1 avec un stoploss a 0.06996
Avec un position size USD de 397.57$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 5797.1 x 0.00138 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 5797.1 x 0.00346 = 20.06
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.06$
Résumé
- Taille de position 5797.1
- Taille de position USD 397.57
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.06
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5072
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.05 % | 20.01 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.01 % | 7.98 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.98 $ | -2.01 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.2733 % | 112.98 % | 9 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06858 | 0.06996 | 0.06512 | 2.51 | 0.08198 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06858
- Stop Loss: 0.06996
- Take Profit: 0.06512
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06996 - 0.06858 = 0.00138
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06858 - 0.06512 = 0.00346
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00346 / 0.00138 = 2.5072
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.012%
(0.0014)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.302% | 0.2R | -0.053% | 0.0R | 5.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.302% | 0.2R | -0.497% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.302% | 0.2R | -1.269% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.302% | 0.2R | -2.389% | 1.2R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.302% | 0.2R | -2.877% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.302% | 0.2R | -3.822% | 1.9R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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