Short Trade on AVAX (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 94.67 AVAX at 6.321$ per unit. Take profit: 6.1094 (3.34 %) & Stop Loss: 6.4052 (1.34 %)
01 Aug 2026 at 22:36:55
hyperliquid
AVAX
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Aug 2026 22:36
→ 00:50
· 2 hours
Position
Entry 6.3207$
Qty 94.665 AVAX
Size 598.3492$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 6.1094 (+3.34%)
TP $ 20$
SL 6.4052 (-1.34%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.34%
/ -8$
MAE -5.69%
MFE +0.31%
0.2R
expires
02 Aug 10:36
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 56053)
#27 / 33
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/08/2026 22:00
score du 01/08/2026 22:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3015
Quality Score
0.497
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/08 22:30
01/08 22:30
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#27 / 33
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.34 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#27 / 33
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.34 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -0.43×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : bull_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 01/08 22:00 Score : +2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 01/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/08 22:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
01/08/2026 22:00
Score brut
0.4974
Score SMA
0.4906
Rank
#27
/ 33
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3015
Rank Norm SMA
0.3507
Calculé le
01/08/2026 22:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4410 | r1h: 0.468% · r4h: 0.663% · r1d: -2.91% · r3d: -4.19% · ema21_slope: -0.1532% · dist_ema21: -0.683% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4574 | rs_1h: 0.166% · rs_4h: 0.330% · rs_1d: -3.01% · rs_3d: -2.25% · beta_24h: 2.886 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2031 | rvol_20: 0.33× · zscore_50: -0.437 · trend: -25.88% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7340 | ADX: 28.1 (trend) · Chop: 21.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.728% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.337%
(0.0845)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.313% | 0.2R | -0.291% | 0.2R | 1.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.313% | 0.2R | -0.392% | 0.3R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.313% | 0.2R | -5.694% | 4.3R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.313% | 0.2R | -5.694% | 4.3R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.313% | 0.2R | -5.694% | 4.3R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.313% | 0.2R | -5.694% | 4.3R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.76
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mature_trend | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid | — | — | 0.77 | bear_high | -6.42% | -0.47 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -0.87% | -0.11 | 01/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | — | — | 0.59 | range_low | -0.18% | -0.24 | 01/08 22:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | compression | range_low |
41%
|
choppy 50% | late | — | — | 0.46 | range_low | +0.67% | +0.12 | 01/08 22:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 29b | — | 3.368×ATR | p31 | -0.711×ATR | p69 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 2.208×ATR | p12 | -0.195×ATR | p21 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 8b | — | 5.353×ATR | p97 | +1.237×ATR | p87 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 31b | — | 13.243×ATR | p100 | +3.439×ATR | p98 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7975
- reason: down_bo width=2.88×ATR dur=46b phase=extending
- stop_price: 6.40520851
- tp_price: 6.10942872
- atr:
- score: 0.79752435253851
- expires_at: 2026-08-02T14:36:47.637560
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.79752435253851
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0542
- obi_top10 : -0.0279
- micro_price : 6.3139374
- spread_pct : 0.01584
- mid_price : 6.3135
- bid_wall_price : 6.21
- bid_wall_size : 87043.7
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 6.37
- ask_wall_size : 83248.3
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0545
- obi_top5_std : 0.0002
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6850
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
6.4741
- balance_zone_bottom:
6.32605
- balance_zone_mid:
6.400075
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785474000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785636000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.884
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
46
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7975
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785603600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
6.32605
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7609
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
9
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.1042
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.05133512 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
46
inside_close_ratio
0.7609
bars_since_breakout
9
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1042
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22:36 | 6.32070000 | 0% |
| 2 | 22:42 | 6.32070000 | 0% |
| 3 | 22:48 | 6.31520000 | -0.087% |
| 4 | 22:54 | 6.31520000 | -0.087% |
| 5 | 23:01 | 6.31520000 | -0.087% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6850ms
Confidence avant OB :
80%
→
80%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.054
avg 0.055
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
-0.028
Microstructure
Mid Price
6.3135
Micro Price
6.3139
Spread
0.0158%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
6.2100
Size
87,043.70
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
6.3700
Size
83,248.30
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3207 | 6.4052 | 6.1094 | 2.5 | 9.7868 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.3207
- Stop Loss: 6.4052
- Take Profit: 6.1094
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.4052 - 6.3207 = 0.084499999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.3207 - 6.1094 = 0.2113
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2113 / 0.084499999999999 = 2.5006
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 598.3492 | 100 | 94.665 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.084499999999999
Taille de position = 8 / 0.084499999999999 = 94.67
Taille de position USD = 94.67 x 6.3207 = 598.38
Donc, tu peux acheter 94.67 avec un stoploss a 6.4052
Avec un position size USD de 598.38$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 94.67 x 0.084499999999999 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 94.67 x 0.2113 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 94.67
- Taille de position USD 598.38
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5006
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.34 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.34 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.34 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.6975 % | 201.77 % | 7 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3207 | 6.4052 | 6.1094 | 2.5 | 9.7868 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 6.3207
- Stop Loss: 6.4052
- Take Profit: 6.1094
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.4052 - 6.3207 = 0.084499999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.3207 - 6.1094 = 0.2113
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2113 / 0.084499999999999 = 2.5006
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 6.1094
[entry_price] => 6.3207
[stop_loss] => 6.41365
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-02 04:50:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 6.1094
[entry_price] => 6.3207
[stop_loss] => 6.4221
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-02 04:50:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 6.1094
[entry_price] => 6.3207
[stop_loss] => 6.43055
[rr_ratio] => 1.92
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-02 04:50:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 6.1094
[entry_price] => 6.3207
[stop_loss] => 6.44745
[rr_ratio] => 1.67
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-02 04:50:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.337%
(0.0845)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.313% | 0.2R | -0.291% | 0.2R | 1.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.313% | 0.2R | -0.392% | 0.3R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.313% | 0.2R | -5.694% | 4.3R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.313% | 0.2R | -5.694% | 4.3R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.313% | 0.2R | -5.694% | 4.3R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.313% | 0.2R | -5.694% | 4.3R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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