Short Trade on BTC (CatchTheWave)
With 0.065 BTC at 63399$ per unit. Take profit: 63152.6451 (0.39 %) & Stop Loss: 63522.1774 (0.19 %)
Short Trade on BTC (CatchTheWave)
With 0.065 BTC at 63399$ per unit. Take profit: 63152.6451 (0.39 %) & Stop Loss: 63522.1774 (0.19 %)
Position
Entry 63399$
Qty 0.06495 BTC
Size 4117.5725$ (margin 100$) (leverage 41)
Risk Setup
TP 63152.6451 (+0.39%)
TP $ 16$
SL 63522.1774 (-0.19%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6291
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -0.20×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.64×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : bull_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 01/08 22:00 Score : +2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
1H_regime : range_low 15m_regime : bull_low_confirmed 5m_regime : bull_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 01/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 01/08 22:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4929 | r1h: 0.303% · r4h: 0.333% · r1d: 0.10% · r3d: -1.93% · ema21_slope: -0.0294% · dist_ema21: 0.164% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5000 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.000 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2254 | rvol_20: 0.67× · zscore_50: -0.530 · trend: -25.34% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6869 | ADX: 23.1 (weak) · Chop: 38.9 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.9452 | ATR%: 0.284% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.134% | 0.7R | -0.213% | 1.1R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.134% | 0.7R | -0.233% | 1.2R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.134% | 0.7R | -0.344% | 1.8R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.519% | 2.7R | -0.344% | 1.8R | 1.5× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.692% | 3.6R | -0.344% | 1.8R | 2.0× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | — | near -0.1ATR | — | — | — | — | 01/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | near -0.2ATR | — | — | — | — | — | 01/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | range_low |
41%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | — | — | — | — | 01/08 22:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | expansion | range_low |
40%
|
ranging_calm 49% | late | — | — | — | — | — | — | 01/08 22:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 12b | — | 2.527×ATR | p0 | -0.491×ATR | p50 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 12b | — | 4.866×ATR | p80 | -0.208×ATR | p20 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 8b | — | 5.808×ATR | p95 | +2.398×ATR | p99 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 7b | — | 5.349×ATR | p79 | +2.059×ATR | p92 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
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[1] => 64390
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[1] => 65153
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[1] => 65385
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[1] => 62440
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[5] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 05:00:00
[1] => 63115
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[6] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 10:00:00
[1] => 62951
[2] => L
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[7] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 15:00:00
[1] => 63099
[2] => H
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[8] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 18:00:00
[1] => 62237
[2] => L
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[9] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-02 02:00:00
[1] => 63550
[2] => H
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[detected_trend] => range
[features] => Array
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[ms_trend_state] => 0
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.1904012588513
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 1.915259411604
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 0
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 8
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 2.1096775230169
[ms_bos_up] => 1
[ms_bos_down] => 1
[ms_choch_up] => 0
[ms_choch_down] => 0
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Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 06:00:00
[1] => 62965
[2] => L
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[1] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-01 08:45:00
[1] => 63114
[2] => H
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[2] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 10:00:00
[1] => 62951
[2] => L
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[3] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 12:00:00
[1] => 63093
[2] => H
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[4] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 13:45:00
[1] => 63025
[2] => L
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[5] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 15:00:00
[1] => 63099
[2] => H
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[6] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 18:30:00
[1] => 62237
[2] => L
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[7] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 22:15:00
[1] => 62852
[2] => H
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[8] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-01 23:15:00
[1] => 62739
[2] => L
)
[9] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-02 02:00:00
[1] => 63550
[2] => H
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)
[detected_trend] => uptrend
[features] => Array
(
[ms_trend_state] => 1
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.21715184893784
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 1.0726980028372
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 2
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 13
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 1.2926568800905
[ms_bos_up] => 1
[ms_bos_down] => 0
[ms_choch_up] => 1
[ms_choch_down] => 0
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Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 21:00:00
[1] => 62780
[2] => H
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[1] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-01 21:30:00
[1] => 62840
[2] => H
)
[2] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-01 22:15:00
[1] => 62852
[2] => H
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[3] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-01 23:00:00
[1] => 62830
[2] => H
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[4] => Array
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[1] => 62739
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[5] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-02 00:10:00
[1] => 62946
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[6] => Array
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[1] => 62786
[2] => L
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[7] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-02 01:15:00
[1] => 63064
[2] => H
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[8] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-02 02:00:00
[1] => 62939
[2] => L
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[9] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-02 02:05:00
[1] => 63550
[2] => H
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[detected_trend] => uptrend
[features] => Array
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[ms_trend_state] => 1
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.23760818253344
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 0.73086639444542
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 6
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 7
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 0.97078123262206
[ms_bos_up] => 1
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62237
191
0.4467
0.6244
0.3161
0.2634
0.3592
1
0.1506
0.5085
0.3257
0.7
0.6752
0.3787
0.0295
-0.0455
0.6667
2.1143
0.9368
0.55
0.45
-1
8
1
0.4732
0.5808
4.7014
0.5
2.9932
4.5111
0.9368
0.0426
0.2062
0.5
0.3848
0.5836
0.5057
0.682
0.3787
-8.4186
5.1303
1
1
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22:36 | 63399.00000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 22:54 | 63430.00000000 | +0.049% |
| 3 | 23:00 | 63435.00000000 | +0.057% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 21:00:00 | 62780 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 21:30:00 | 62840 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 22:15:00 | 62852 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 23:00:00 | 62830 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 23:20:00 | 62739 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 00:10:00 | 62946 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 00:55:00 | 62786 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 01:15:00 | 63064 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 02:00:00 | 62939 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 02:05:00 | 63550 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 06:00:00 | 62965 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 08:45:00 | 63114 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 10:00:00 | 62951 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 12:00:00 | 63093 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 13:45:00 | 63025 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 15:00:00 | 63099 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:30:00 | 62237 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 22:15:00 | 62852 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 23:15:00 | 62739 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 02:00:00 | 63550 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 21:00:00 | 63245 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-30 02:00:00 | 64390 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-30 13:00:00 | 65153 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 01:00:00 | 65385 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 14:00:00 | 62440 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 05:00:00 | 63115 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 10:00:00 | 62951 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 15:00:00 | 63099 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 62237 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 02:00:00 | 63550 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63399 | 63522.1774 | 63152.6451 | 2 | 82672 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 63522.1774 - 63399 = 123.1774
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 63399 - 63152.6451 = 246.3549
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 246.3549 / 123.1774 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4117.5725 | 100 | 0.06495 | 41.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 123.1774 = 0.06
Taille de position USD = 0.06 x 63399 = 3803.94
Donc, tu peux acheter 0.06 avec un stoploss a 63522.1774
Avec un position size USD de 3803.94$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 0.06 x 123.1774 = 7.39
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.39$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 0.06 x 246.3549 = 14.78
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 14.78$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.39 % | 16 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.19 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -0.19 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.2129 % | 109.57 % | 6 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63399 | 63522.1774 | 63152.6451 | 2 | 82672 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 63522.1774 - 63399 = 123.1774
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 63399 - 63152.6451 = 246.3549
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 246.3549 / 123.1774 = 2
Array
(
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Array
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[take_profit] => 63152.6451
[entry_price] => 63399
[stop_loss] => 63534.49514
[rr_ratio] => 1.82
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-02 04:05:00+00
[result] => loss
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[1.2] => Array
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[take_profit] => 63152.6451
[entry_price] => 63399
[stop_loss] => 63546.81288
[rr_ratio] => 1.67
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-02 04:20:00+00
[result] => loss
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[1.3] => Array
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[take_profit] => 63152.6451
[entry_price] => 63399
[stop_loss] => 63559.13062
[rr_ratio] => 1.54
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[closed_at] => 2026-08-02 04:55:00+00
[result] => loss
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[1.5] => Array
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[take_profit] => 63152.6451
[entry_price] => 63399
[stop_loss] => 63583.7661
[rr_ratio] => 1.33
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-02 04:55:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.134% | 0.7R | -0.213% | 1.1R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.134% | 0.7R | -0.233% | 1.2R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.134% | 0.7R | -0.344% | 1.8R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.519% | 2.7R | -0.344% | 1.8R | 1.5× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.692% | 3.6R | -0.344% | 1.8R | 2.0× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
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