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Short Trade on LIT

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03 Aug 2026 at 01:09:59 hyperliquid

Short Trade on LIT (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 171.75 LIT at 2.001$ per unit. Take profit: 1.8842 (5.82 %) & Stop Loss: 2.0472 (2.33 %)

LIT SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 03 Aug 2026 01:09 → 03:25 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 2.0006$

Qty 171.7478 LIT

Size 343.5986$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 1.8842 (+5.82%)

TP $ 19.99$

SL 2.0472 (-2.33%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -2.33% / -8$ MAE -6.43% MFE +0.00% 0.0R expires 03 Aug 13:09

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 57068)
#25 / 38 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/08/2026 01:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2389

Quality Score
0.502
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
69 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
3 OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
9.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/08 01:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#25 / 38 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
69 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.33 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#25 / 38 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
69 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.33 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear —
4h near -1.12×ATR
1d clear 1.43×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up early OK
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : bear_low_vol

rules_regime : bear_low

rules_regime_5m : bear_low

Score : 3

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

03/08 01:00

Score : +1

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

02/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

03/08 00:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

03/08 00:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 1253
range compression range_breakdown_risk
Strategic range compression — 0
Operational bear expansion — +1
Tactical range range — 0
Micro — —
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.53
Transition risk : 0.47
Score contribution (this trade) +1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Impulse : —
% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.47
Snapshot évalué : 03/08 01:00 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Calculé le 03/08/2026 01:00
Score brut
0.5018
Score SMA
0.4948
Rank
#25 / 38
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2389
Rank Norm SMA
0.2638
Calculé le
03/08/2026 01:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4292 r1h: 1.857% · r4h: -1.149% · r1d: -4.94% · r3d: -9.22% · ema21_slope: -0.1075% · dist_ema21: -0.499%
Force Relative 25% 0.4484 rs_1h: 1.686% · rs_4h: -0.607% · rs_1d: -3.97% · rs_3d: -7.15% · beta_24h: 1.305
Volume 20% 0.4109 rvol_20: 0.86× · zscore_50: -0.122 · trend: 70.86%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5248 ADX: 14.1 (weak) · Chop: 49.7 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.632% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.329% (0.0466)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -1.560% 0.7R 0.0× 12
2h +0.000% 0.0R -1.560% 0.7R 0.0× 24
4h +0.000% 0.0R -3.044% 1.3R 0.0× 48
8h +0.000% 0.0R -4.624% 2.0R 0.0× 96
12h ★ +0.000% 0.0R -6.428% 2.8R 0.0× 144
24h +0.385% 0.2R -6.428% 2.8R 0.1× 288

computed 2 months ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind compression bull_high
52%
noisy_chop 39% mid — — — bear_high -5.66% -0.98 02/08 20:00
4h ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong grind compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 45% mid near -1.1ATR — 0.39 bear_high -1.61% -0.78 03/08 00:00
1h ↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition moderate grind expansion bear_high
62%
noisy_chop 42% early — near -0.5ATR 0.43 bear_low -0.77% -0.33 03/08 00:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 42% late — near 0.3ATR 0.36 range_low -0.40% +0.05 03/08 00:45
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 28b — 4.022×ATR p57 -0.507×ATR p52
4h ↓ down mid 6b — 2.515×ATR p26 -0.792×ATR p69
1h ↑ up early 1b — 2.212×ATR p30 +0.366×ATR p27
15m ↑ up late 4b — 3.739×ATR p81 +0.847×ATR p69

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.692
  3. reason: down_bo width=1.73×ATR dur=39b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
  4. stop_price: 2.04717993
  5. tp_price: 1.88415016
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.79201442213729
  8. expires_at: 2026-08-03T17:09:52.186224
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.79201442213729
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : 0.3846
  10. obi_top10 : 0.3963
  11. micro_price : 2.00144172
  12. spread_pct : 0.049975
  13. mid_price : 2.0015
  14. bid_wall_price : 1.97
  15. bid_wall_size : 33438
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price : 2.02
  18. ask_wall_size : 21371.6
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : 0.386
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0028
  23. pressure_side : bid
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 7051
  26. aggregation_tick : 0.01
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    2.0712
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    2.0169
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    2.04405
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1785596400
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1785733200
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    1.7349
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    39
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: established
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.792
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1785718800
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    2.0169
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.6154
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    4
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.5208
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    5
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    13
  54. regime : bear_high
  55. atr_entry : 0.03129935
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
39
inside_close_ratio
0.6154
bars_since_breakout
4
distance_to_edge_atr
0.5208

Signaux confirmants (10)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 01:09 2.00060000 0%
2 01:16 2.00060000 0%
3 01:21 2.00910000 +0.425%
4 01:27 2.00910000 +0.425%
5 01:34 2.00910000 +0.425%
6 03:10 2.01500000 +0.72%
7 03:16 2.01500000 +0.72%
8 03:21 2.01560000 +0.75%
9 03:27 2.01560000 +0.75%
10 03:34 2.01560000 +0.75%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↑ bid ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7051ms Confidence avant OB : 79% → 69%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.385
avg 0.386 ± 0.003
OBI Top 10 0.396

Microstructure

Mid Price
2.0015
Micro Price
2.0014
Spread
0.0500%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
1.9700
Size
33,438.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
2.0200
Size
21,371.60

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
2.0006 2.0472 1.8842 2.5 3.6593
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 2.0006
  • Stop Loss: 2.0472
  • Take Profit: 1.8842

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 2.0472 - 2.0006 = 0.0466

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 2.0006 - 1.8842 = 0.1164

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1164 / 0.0466 = 2.4979

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
343.5986 100 171.7478 3.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0466

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0466 = 171.67

Taille de position USD = 171.67 x 2.0006 = 343.44

Donc, tu peux acheter 171.67 avec un stoploss a 2.0472

Avec un position size USD de 343.44$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 171.67 x 0.0466 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 171.67 x 0.1164 = 19.98

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.98$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 171.67
  • Taille de position USD 343.44
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 19.98
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4979

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
5.82 % 19.99 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.33 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -2.33
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-2.3393 % 100.43 % 0
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
2.0006 2.0472 1.8842 2.5 3.6593
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 2.0006
  • Stop Loss: 2.0472
  • Take Profit: 1.8842

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 2.0472 - 2.0006 = 0.0466

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 2.0006 - 1.8842 = 0.1164

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1164 / 0.0466 = 2.4979

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 1.8842
            [entry_price] => 2.0006
            [stop_loss] => 2.05186
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-03 07:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 1.8842
            [entry_price] => 2.0006
            [stop_loss] => 2.05652
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-03 08:10:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 1.8842
            [entry_price] => 2.0006
            [stop_loss] => 2.06118
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-03 08:10:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 1.8842
            [entry_price] => 2.0006
            [stop_loss] => 2.0705
            [rr_ratio] => 1.67
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-03 09:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.329% (0.0466)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -1.560% 0.7R 0.0× 12
2h +0.000% 0.0R -1.560% 0.7R 0.0× 24
4h +0.000% 0.0R -3.044% 1.3R 0.0× 48
8h +0.000% 0.0R -4.624% 2.0R 0.0× 96
12h ★ +0.000% 0.0R -6.428% 2.8R 0.0× 144
24h +0.385% 0.2R -6.428% 2.8R 0.1× 288

computed 2 months ago

Commentaires

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