Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 510529.67 PENGU at 0.00608$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006116 (0.51 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006069 (0.26 %)
Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 510529.67 PENGU at 0.00608$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006116 (0.51 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006069 (0.26 %)
Position
Entry 0.006085$
Qty 510529.6745 PENGU
Size 3106.5731$ (margin 100$) (leverage 31)
Risk Setup
TP 0.006116 (+0.51%)
TP $ 15.83$
SL 0.006069 (-0.26%)
SL $ 8.17$
RR 1.94
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6640
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 4.42×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.54×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.97×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bear_low_vol rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 03/08 00:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.51418 15m : 0.271746 |
1H_regime : bull_high 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 02/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 03/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 03/08 00:00 Score : -2 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5053 | r1h: 0.165% · r4h: -1.008% · r1d: -0.15% · r3d: 0.96% · ema21_slope: 0.0511% · dist_ema21: -0.640% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5392 | rs_1h: 0.301% · rs_4h: -0.199% · rs_1d: 0.47% · rs_3d: 2.99% · beta_24h: 0.363 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1754 | rvol_20: 0.24× · zscore_50: -0.369 · trend: -69.58% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6582 | ADX: 29.3 (trend) · Chop: 48.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.775% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.526% | 2.0R | -0.345% | 1.3R | 1.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.526% | 2.0R | -0.690% | 2.6R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.526% | 2.0R | -1.233% | 4.7R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.526% | 2.0R | -1.233% | 4.7R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.202% | 8.4R | -1.233% | 4.7R | 1.8× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | near -0.6ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_high | -5.66% | +0.55 | 02/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | range_high |
42%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -1.61% | +0.37 | 03/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | compression | bull_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_low | -0.77% | +0.09 | 03/08 00:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | range_low |
39%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | — | range_low | -0.40% | +0.04 | 03/08 00:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 30b | — | 2.403×ATR | p0 | +0.285×ATR | p30 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 9b | — | 2.142×ATR | p3 | +0.001×ATR | p0 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 3.253×ATR | p68 | -0.272×ATR | p32 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 10b | — | 2.377×ATR | p33 | +0.609×ATR | p56 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63197.7
-0.00586644
62827
0.51418
63283.6
-0.00593525
62908
0.271746
63443.5
-0.00773198
62953
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0.006271
192
0.5823
0.4813
0.2797
0.2141
0.3333
1
0.4461
0.4741
0.6279
0.0739
0.4527
0.7431
-0.0787
0.0217
0.6667
-0.4163
0.6805
0.5
0.5
1
7
1
0.5719
0.3636
3.5676
0.5
1.1915
1.8313
0.6805
0.7454
0.3537
0.02
-0.2071
0.4196
0.4092
0.322
0.7431
-3.8034
11.0035
1
1
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:56 | 0.00608500 | 0% |
| 2 | 01:03 | 0.00607100 | -0.23% |
Market Structure Score: 2
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 21:20:00 | 0.006271 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 00:05:00 | 0.006117 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 00:10:00 | 0.006162 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 01:10:00 | 0.006094 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 02:10:00 | 0.006066 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 02:20:00 | 0.006098 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 02:55:00 | 0.006072 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 03:45:00 | 0.006076 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 04:25:00 | 0.006123 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 04:55:00 | 0.006085 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 12:15:00 | 0.006253 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 14:00:00 | 0.006159 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 15:00:00 | 0.006221 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 16:45:00 | 0.006215 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 17:00:00 | 0.006176 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 18:15:00 | 0.006214 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 18:30:00 | 0.006174 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 21:15:00 | 0.006271 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 02:00:00 | 0.006066 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 04:15:00 | 0.006123 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 13:00:00 | 0.006117 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 14:00:00 | 0.005936 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 04:00:00 | 0.006184 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 16:00:00 | 0.005975 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 0.005857 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 03:00:00 | 0.006201 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 10:00:00 | 0.006033 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 12:00:00 | 0.006253 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 21:00:00 | 0.006271 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 02:00:00 | 0.006066 | ↓ Low |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006085 | 0.006069 | 0.006116 | 1.94 | 0.007663 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006069 - 0.006085 = -1.6E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006085 - 0.006116 = -3.1E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -3.1E-5 / -1.6E-5 = 1.9375
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3106.5731 | 100 | 510529.6745 | 31.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -1.6E-5 = -500000
Taille de position USD = -500000 x 0.006085 = -3042.5
Donc, tu peux acheter -500000 avec un stoploss a 0.006069
Avec un position size USD de -3042.5$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -500000 x -1.6E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -500000 x -3.1E-5 = 15.5
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 15.5$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.51 % | 15.83 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.26 % | 8.17 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.17 $ | -0.26 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3122 % | 118.75 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006085 | 0.006069 | 0.006116 | 1.94 | 0.007663 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006069 - 0.006085 = -1.6E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006085 - 0.006116 = -3.1E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -3.1E-5 / -1.6E-5 = 1.9375
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.526% | 2.0R | -0.345% | 1.3R | 1.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.526% | 2.0R | -0.690% | 2.6R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.526% | 2.0R | -1.233% | 4.7R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.526% | 2.0R | -1.233% | 4.7R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.202% | 8.4R | -1.233% | 4.7R | 1.8× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
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