Short Trade on SOL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 12.6 SOL at 72.529$ per unit. Take profit: 70.9423 (2.19 %) & Stop Loss: 73.1637 (0.88 %)
03 Aug 2026 at 03:48:30
hyperliquid
SOL
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
03 Aug 2026 03:48
→ 09:55
· 6 hours
Position
Entry 72.529$
Qty 12.6046 SOL
Size 914.2024$ (margin 100$) (leverage 9)
Risk Setup
TP 70.9423 (+2.19%)
TP $ 20$
SL 73.1637 (-0.88%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.88%
/ -8$
MAE -2.41%
MFE +0.79%
0.9R
expires
03 Aug 15:48
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 57110)
#11 / 38
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 03/08/2026 03:00
score du 03/08/2026 03:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4896
Quality Score
0.530
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
3
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
73.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/08 03:45
03/08 03:45
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#11 / 38
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#11 / 38
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | 0.27×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.35×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bear_low_vol rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : bear_low Score : 3 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 03/08 03:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 02/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 03/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 03/08 03:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
03/08/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.5298
Score SMA
0.5234
Rank
#11
/ 38
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4896
Rank Norm SMA
0.4587
Calculé le
03/08/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4607 | r1h: -0.530% · r4h: -0.688% · r1d: -1.25% · r3d: -2.12% · ema21_slope: 0.0053% · dist_ema21: -0.787% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4987 | rs_1h: -0.208% · rs_4h: 0.139% · rs_1d: 0.12% · rs_3d: 0.36% · beta_24h: 1.000 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3583 | rvol_20: 1.24× · zscore_50: 0.130 · trend: -26.52% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6348 | ADX: 16.2 (weak) · Chop: 37.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.473% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.875%
(0.6347)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.791% | 0.9R | -0.014% | 0.0R | 57.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.791% | 0.9R | -0.055% | 0.1R | 14.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.791% | 0.9R | -0.323% | 0.4R | 2.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.791% | 0.9R | -1.747% | 2.0R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.791% | 0.9R | -2.407% | 2.8R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.791% | 0.9R | -2.407% | 2.8R | 0.3× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 4.54
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.87 | bear_high | -6.47% | -0.31 | 02/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bear_high |
65%
|
noisy_chop 44% | early | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.83 | bear_high | -2.07% | +0.08 | 03/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | normal | bear_medium |
57%
|
noisy_chop 36% | late | — | — | 0.84 | bear_low | -1.23% | +0.00 | 03/08 03:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | — | — | — | bear_low | -0.76% | +0.01 | 03/08 03:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 30b | — | 4.358×ATR | p61 | -0.35×ATR | p40 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 2b | — | 2×ATR | p0 | -0.526×ATR | p49 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 10b | — | 5.171×ATR | p93 | -1.011×ATR | p79 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 1b | — | 1.093×ATR | p0 | -0.692×ATR | p46 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8022
- reason: down_bo width=3.00×ATR dur=74b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 73.16368662
- tp_price: 70.94228346
- atr:
- score: 0.80221680614698
- expires_at: 2026-08-03T19:48:22.491781
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.80221680614698
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0189
- obi_top10 : -0.0189
- micro_price : 72.52924411
- spread_pct : 0.001379
- mid_price : 72.5295
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0144
- obi_top5_std : 0.0039
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7053
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
73.635
- balance_zone_bottom:
72.625
- balance_zone_mid:
73.13
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785477600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785740400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9982
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
74
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8022
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785736800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
72.625
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7838
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.285
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
14
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.33686616 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
74
inside_close_ratio
0.7838
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.285
Signaux confirmants (28)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:48 | 72.52900000 | 0% |
| 2 | 03:54 | 72.52900000 | 0% |
| 3 | 04:00 | 72.52900000 | 0% |
| 4 | 04:36 | 72.03500000 | -0.681% |
| 5 | 04:42 | 72.03500000 | -0.681% |
| 6 | 04:48 | 72.15800000 | -0.512% |
| 7 | 04:54 | 72.15800000 | -0.512% |
| 8 | 05:00 | 72.15800000 | -0.512% |
| 9 | 05:36 | 72.48500000 | -0.061% |
| 10 | 05:42 | 72.48500000 | -0.061% |
| 11 | 05:48 | 72.51100000 | -0.025% |
| 12 | 05:54 | 72.51100000 | -0.025% |
| 13 | 06:00 | 72.51100000 | -0.025% |
| 14 | 07:18 | 72.41300000 | -0.16% |
| 15 | 07:24 | 72.41300000 | -0.16% |
| 16 | 07:30 | 72.41300000 | -0.16% |
| 17 | 07:36 | 72.53500000 | +0.008% |
| 18 | 07:42 | 72.53500000 | +0.008% |
| 19 | 07:48 | 72.53300000 | +0.006% |
| 20 | 07:54 | 72.53300000 | +0.006% |
| 21 | 08:00 | 72.53300000 | +0.006% |
| 22 | 08:36 | 72.43100000 | -0.135% |
| 23 | 08:42 | 72.43100000 | -0.135% |
| 24 | 08:48 | 72.49000000 | -0.054% |
| 25 | 08:54 | 72.49000000 | -0.054% |
| 26 | 09:00 | 72.49000000 | -0.054% |
| 27 | 09:36 | 72.46400000 | -0.09% |
| 28 | 09:42 | 72.46400000 | -0.09% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7053ms
Confidence avant OB :
80%
→
80%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.019
avg -0.014
± 0.004
OBI Top 10
-0.019
Microstructure
Mid Price
72.5295
Micro Price
72.5292
Spread
0.0014%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.529 | 73.1637 | 70.9423 | 2.5 | 114.81 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 72.529
- Stop Loss: 73.1637
- Take Profit: 70.9423
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 73.1637 - 72.529 = 0.63470000000001
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 72.529 - 70.9423 = 1.5867
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.5867 / 0.63470000000001 = 2.4999
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 914.2024 | 100 | 12.6046 | 9.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.63470000000001
Taille de position = 8 / 0.63470000000001 = 12.6
Taille de position USD = 12.6 x 72.529 = 913.87
Donc, tu peux acheter 12.6 avec un stoploss a 73.1637
Avec un position size USD de 913.87$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 12.6 x 0.63470000000001 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 12.6 x 1.5867 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 12.6
- Taille de position USD 913.87
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4999
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.19 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.88 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -0.88 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9941 % | 113.6 % | 16 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.529 | 73.1637 | 70.9423 | 2.5 | 114.81 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 72.529
- Stop Loss: 73.1637
- Take Profit: 70.9423
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 73.1637 - 72.529 = 0.63470000000001
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 72.529 - 70.9423 = 1.5867
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.5867 / 0.63470000000001 = 2.4999
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.875%
(0.6347)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.791% | 0.9R | -0.014% | 0.0R | 57.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.791% | 0.9R | -0.055% | 0.1R | 14.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.791% | 0.9R | -0.323% | 0.4R | 2.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.791% | 0.9R | -1.747% | 2.0R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.791% | 0.9R | -2.407% | 2.8R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.791% | 0.9R | -2.407% | 2.8R | 0.3× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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