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Short Trade on ETH

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03 Aug 2026 at 04:36:22 hyperliquid

Short Trade on ETH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 0.22 ETH at 1829.3$ per unit. Take profit: 1738.9148 (4.94 %) & Stop Loss: 1865.4541 (1.98 %)

ETH SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 03 Aug 2026 04:36 → 10:25 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 1829.3$

Qty 0.2213 ETH

Size 404.7789$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)

Risk Setup

TP 1738.9148 (+4.94%)

TP $ 20$

SL 1865.4541 (-1.98%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -1.98% / -8$ MAE -2.52% MFE +0.00% 0.0R expires 03 Aug 16:36

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 57147)
#13 / 38 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 03/08/2026 04:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5774

Quality Score
0.539
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
81 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
3 OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
510.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/08 04:30

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#13 / 38 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.98 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#13 / 38 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.98 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear —
4h near -0.28×ATR
1d clear —
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↑ up mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : bear_low_vol

rules_regime : bear_low

rules_regime_5m : bear_low

Score : 3

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

03/08 04:00

Score : +1

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

02/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

03/08 00:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1)

03/08 04:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Calculé le 03/08/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.5388
Score SMA
0.5290
Rank
#13 / 38
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5774
Rank Norm SMA
0.5198
Calculé le
03/08/2026 04:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4466 r1h: -0.292% · r4h: -0.733% · r1d: -1.73% · r3d: -2.49% · ema21_slope: -0.0090% · dist_ema21: -1.106%
Force Relative 25% 0.4697 rs_1h: -0.332% · rs_4h: -0.372% · rs_1d: -0.39% · rs_3d: -0.46% · beta_24h: 1.426
Volume 20% 0.4350 rvol_20: 1.39× · zscore_50: 0.351 · trend: 2.36%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6696 ADX: 20.4 (weak) · Chop: 33.4 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.574% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.976% (36.1541)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -0.815% 0.4R 0.0× 12
2h +0.000% 0.0R -1.350% 0.7R 0.0× 24
4h +0.000% 0.0R -1.350% 0.7R 0.0× 48
8h +0.000% 0.0R -2.389% 1.2R 0.0× 96
12h ★ +0.000% 0.0R -2.520% 1.3R 0.0× 144
24h +0.000% 0.0R -2.520% 1.3R 0.0× 288

computed 2 months ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range moderate grind compression bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 37% mid — — 0.91 bear_high -6.47% +0.16 02/08 20:00
4h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind normal bear_high
61%
noisy_chop 44% mid near -0.3ATR — 0.88 bear_high -2.07% -0.05 03/08 00:00
1h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate balanced expansion bear_medium
59%
noisy_chop 44% late — — 0.88 bear_low -1.32% +0.01 03/08 04:00
15m ↓ down range range moderate fading expansion bear_low
42%
noisy_chop 47% late — — 0.87 bear_low -1.20% -0.06 03/08 04:30
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up mid 38b — 5.426×ATR p77 -0.342×ATR p39
4h ↓ down mid 2b — 2.209×ATR p11 -0.803×ATR p74
1h ↓ down late 11b — 5.532×ATR p88 -1.128×ATR p80
15m ↓ down late 10b — 6.209×ATR p86 -2.582×ATR p97

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.8051
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.91×ATR dur=67b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 1865.45406059
  5. tp_price: 1738.91484852
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.80514745737583
  8. expires_at: 2026-08-03T20:36:14.293110
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.80514745737583
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : -0.1107
  10. obi_top10 : -0.1107
  11. micro_price : 1831.79460293
  12. spread_pct : 0.000546
  13. mid_price : 1831.795
  14. bid_wall_price :
  15. bid_wall_size :
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price :
  18. ask_wall_size :
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : -0.1016
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0286
  23. pressure_side : neutral
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 7261
  26. aggregation_tick : 10
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    1880.4
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    1848.3
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    1864.35
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1785506400
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1785744000
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    2.9074
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    67
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: stretched
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.8051
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1785736800
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    1848.3
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.7761
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    2
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    1.7209
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    9
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    7
  54. regime : bear_high
  55. atr_entry : 11.0406059
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
67
inside_close_ratio
0.7761
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
1.7209

Signaux confirmants (35)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 04:36 1829.30000000 0%
2 04:42 1829.30000000 0%
3 04:48 1836.10000000 +0.372%
4 04:54 1836.10000000 +0.372%
5 05:00 1836.10000000 +0.372%
6 05:48 1844.80000000 +0.847%
7 05:54 1844.80000000 +0.847%
8 06:00 1844.80000000 +0.847%
9 07:06 1842.80000000 +0.738%
10 07:12 1842.80000000 +0.738%
11 07:18 1841.60000000 +0.672%
12 07:24 1841.60000000 +0.672%
13 07:30 1841.60000000 +0.672%
14 07:36 1845.10000000 +0.864%
15 07:42 1845.10000000 +0.864%
16 07:48 1843.60000000 +0.782%
17 07:54 1843.60000000 +0.782%
18 08:00 1843.60000000 +0.782%
19 08:06 1838.20000000 +0.487%
20 08:12 1838.20000000 +0.487%
21 08:18 1840.40000000 +0.607%
22 08:24 1840.40000000 +0.607%
23 08:30 1840.40000000 +0.607%
24 08:36 1842.10000000 +0.7%
25 08:42 1842.10000000 +0.7%
26 08:48 1844.70000000 +0.842%
27 08:54 1844.70000000 +0.842%
28 09:00 1844.70000000 +0.842%
29 09:06 1842.70000000 +0.733%
30 09:12 1842.70000000 +0.733%
31 09:18 1844.20000000 +0.815%
32 09:24 1844.20000000 +0.815%
33 09:30 1844.20000000 +0.815%
34 09:36 1844.20000000 +0.815%
35 09:42 1844.20000000 +0.815%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7261ms Confidence avant OB : 81% → 81%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.111
avg -0.102 ± 0.029
OBI Top 10 -0.111

Microstructure

Mid Price
1,831.7950
Micro Price
1,831.7946
Spread
0.0005%

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
1829.3 1865.4541 1738.9148 2.5 2569.2
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 1829.3
  • Stop Loss: 1865.4541
  • Take Profit: 1738.9148

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 1865.4541 - 1829.3 = 36.1541

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 1829.3 - 1738.9148 = 90.3852

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 90.3852 / 36.1541 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
404.7789 100 0.2213 4.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 36.1541

Taille de position = 8 / 36.1541 = 0.22

Taille de position USD = 0.22 x 1829.3 = 402.45

Donc, tu peux acheter 0.22 avec un stoploss a 1865.4541

Avec un position size USD de 402.45$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 0.22 x 36.1541 = 7.95

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.95$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 0.22 x 90.3852 = 19.88

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.88$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 0.22
  • Taille de position USD 402.45
  • Perte potentielle 7.95
  • Gain potentiel 19.88
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
4.94 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
1.98 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -1.98
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-2.132 % 107.87 % 0
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
1829.3 1865.4541 1738.9148 2.5 2569.2
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 1829.3
  • Stop Loss: 1865.4541
  • Take Profit: 1738.9148

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 1865.4541 - 1829.3 = 36.1541

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 1829.3 - 1738.9148 = 90.3852

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 90.3852 / 36.1541 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 1738.9148
            [entry_price] => 1829.3
            [stop_loss] => 1869.06951
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-03 14:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.976% (36.1541)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -0.815% 0.4R 0.0× 12
2h +0.000% 0.0R -1.350% 0.7R 0.0× 24
4h +0.000% 0.0R -1.350% 0.7R 0.0× 48
8h +0.000% 0.0R -2.389% 1.2R 0.0× 96
12h ★ +0.000% 0.0R -2.520% 1.3R 0.0× 144
24h +0.000% 0.0R -2.520% 1.3R 0.0× 288

computed 2 months ago

Commentaires

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