Short Trade on TAO (CatchTheWave)
With 14.83 TAO at 191.62$ per unit. Take profit: 190.541 (0.56 %) & Stop Loss: 192.1595 (0.28 %)
Short Trade on TAO (CatchTheWave)
With 14.83 TAO at 191.62$ per unit. Take profit: 190.541 (0.56 %) & Stop Loss: 192.1595 (0.28 %)
Position
Entry 191.62$
Qty 14.828 TAO
Size 2841.337$ (margin 100$) (leverage 28)
Risk Setup
TP 190.541 (+0.56%)
TP $ 16$
SL 192.1595 (-0.28%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4002
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.34×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | 0.34×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_medium rules_regime_5m : bull_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low_confirmed (-1) 03/08 14:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.73483 15m : 0.724664 |
1H_regime : range_medium 15m_regime : bull_low 5m_regime : bull_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 02/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 03/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 03/08 14:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | -1 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4865 | r1h: 0.384% · r4h: 0.696% · r1d: -0.95% · r3d: -2.72% · ema21_slope: -0.0764% · dist_ema21: 0.393% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4507 | rs_1h: 0.194% · rs_4h: -0.135% · rs_1d: -1.85% · rs_3d: -3.76% · beta_24h: 0.790 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4482 | rvol_20: 1.19× · zscore_50: 0.301 · trend: 38.33% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5601 | ADX: 22.8 (weak) · Chop: 54.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.647% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.564% | 2.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +0.564% | 2.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.564% | 2.0R | -1.054% | 3.7R | 0.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.112% | 4.0R | -1.054% | 3.7R | 1.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.112% | 4.0R | -1.054% | 3.7R | 1.1× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 33% | late | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.61 | bear_high | -4.93% | -0.31 | 02/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | near 0.2ATR | 0.69 | range_high | -0.09% | -0.12 | 03/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | range_medium |
38%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | — | 0.65 | bull_medium | +0.89% | -0.13 | 03/08 14:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | range_low |
40%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | — | — | — | bull_low | +1.11% | -0.01 | 03/08 14:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 49b | — | 10.675×ATR | p92 | -0.137×ATR | p16 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 15b | — | 2.82×ATR | p47 | +0.357×ATR | p41 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 5b | — | 3.647×ATR | p77 | +1.27×ATR | p88 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 8b | — | 4.063×ATR | p77 | +1.534×ATR | p96 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63419.5
0.00737128
63887
0.73483
63220.6
0.0105393
63887
0.724664
63428.7
0.00804482
63939
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[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.026053879422637
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 2.3580879214682
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 0
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 5
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[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 0
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 9
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187.44
194
0.4543
0.5316
0.3394
0.2633
0.4017
1
0.3429
0.4539
0.3102
0.5991
0.6176
0.4031
0.0264
-0.0335
0.6667
1.2071
0.3014
0.4
0.6
-1
5
1
0.4734
0.4006
4.4085
0.5
1.8915
3.2687
0.3014
0.6061
0.2963
0.48
0.1666
0.5765
0.5496
0.6653
0.4031
-6.5938
4.4531
1
1
0
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 12:40:00 | 188.75 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 13:20:00 | 189.1 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 13:30:00 | 187.44 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 14:25:00 | 190.18 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 14:55:00 | 190.43 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 15:10:00 | 189.21 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 15:40:00 | 189.97 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 16:00:00 | 188.88 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 17:20:00 | 191.02 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 18:15:00 | 191.91 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 03:00:00 | 191.08 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 03:45:00 | 189.33 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 06:00:00 | 191.45 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 08:30:00 | 187.62 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 09:45:00 | 189.03 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 12:00:00 | 187.89 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 13:30:00 | 187.44 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 14:45:00 | 190.43 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 16:00:00 | 188.88 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 18:15:00 | 191.91 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 03:00:00 | 197.85 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-31 14:00:00 | 190.2 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-31 18:00:00 | 197.1 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 05:00:00 | 199.93 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 189.53 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 04:00:00 | 195.82 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 16:00:00 | 191.75 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 21:00:00 | 194.42 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 13:00:00 | 187.44 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 18:00:00 | 191.91 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 191.62 | 192.1595 | 190.541 | 2 | 307.45 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 192.1595 - 191.62 = 0.5395
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 191.62 - 190.541 = 1.079
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.079 / 0.5395 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2841.337 | 100 | 14.828 | 28.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.5395 = 14.83
Taille de position USD = 14.83 x 191.62 = 2841.72
Donc, tu peux acheter 14.83 avec un stoploss a 192.1595
Avec un position size USD de 2841.72$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 14.83 x 0.5395 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 14.83 x 1.079 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.56 % | 16 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.28 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 16 $ | 0.56 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| 0 % | 0 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 191.62 | 192.1595 | 190.541 | 2 | 307.45 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 192.1595 - 191.62 = 0.5395
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 191.62 - 190.541 = 1.079
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.079 / 0.5395 = 2
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[4.5] => Array
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[6] => Array
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[stop_loss] => 192.1595
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[result] => loss
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[6.5] => Array
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[result] => loss
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[7] => Array
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[result] => loss
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Array
(
)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.564% | 2.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +0.564% | 2.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.564% | 2.0R | -1.054% | 3.7R | 0.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.112% | 4.0R | -1.054% | 3.7R | 1.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.112% | 4.0R | -1.054% | 3.7R | 1.1× | 144 |
computed 2 months ago
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