Short Trade on LIT (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 168.24 LIT at 2.015$ per unit. Take profit: 1.8963 (5.9 %) & Stop Loss: 2.0628 (2.36 %)
03 Aug 2026 at 17:39:55
hyperliquid
LIT
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
03 Aug 2026 17:39
→ 05:35
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 2.0152$
Qty 168.2421 LIT
Size 339.0415$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 1.8963 (+5.9%)
TP $ 20$
SL 2.0628 (-2.36%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+0.23%
/ +0.77$
MAE -1.73%
MFE +1.11%
0.5R
expires
04 Aug 05:39
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 57671)
#33 / 37
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/08/2026 17:00
score du 03/08/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2809
Quality Score
0.466
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
60 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
11.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/08 17:32
03/08 17:32
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#33 / 37
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
60 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.36 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#33 / 37
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
60 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.36 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.09×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.76×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.59×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 03/08 17:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 02/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 03/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/08 17:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
03/08/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.4655
Score SMA
0.4896
Rank
#33
/ 37
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2809
Rank Norm SMA
0.2847
Calculé le
03/08/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4463 | r1h: -0.173% · r4h: -2.160% · r1d: -1.60% · r3d: -2.90% · ema21_slope: 0.0791% · dist_ema21: -1.600% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3753 | rs_1h: -0.251% · rs_4h: -2.375% · rs_1d: -2.23% · rs_3d: -4.43% · beta_24h: 0.881 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2717 | rvol_20: 0.62× · zscore_50: -0.246 · trend: 1.18% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5565 | ADX: 19.1 (weak) · Chop: 50.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.574% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.362%
(0.0476)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.293% | 0.1R | -0.347% | 0.2R | 0.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.566% | 0.2R | -0.347% | 0.2R | 1.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.804% | 0.3R | -0.531% | 0.2R | 1.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.107% | 0.5R | -1.727% | 0.7R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.107% | 0.5R | -1.727% | 0.7R | 0.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.107% | 0.5R | -5.295% | 2.2R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.75
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | — | — | bear_high | -4.93% | -0.97 | 02/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near -0.8ATR | — | 0.37 | range_high | -0.31% | -0.50 | 03/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.44 | range_medium | +0.48% | -0.03 | 03/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 51% | late | near -1.2ATR | — | — | range_low | +0.58% | -0.24 | 03/08 17:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 28b | — | 3.561×ATR | p50 | -0.264×ATR | p26 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 5b | — | 0.827×ATR | p3 | -0.426×ATR | p45 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 8b | — | 3.633×ATR | p75 | -0.804×ATR | p65 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 30b | — | 10.024×ATR | p97 | -0.893×ATR | p67 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.6047
- reason: down_bo width=2.81×ATR dur=83b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 2.06275052
- tp_price: 1.8963237
- atr:
- score: 0.70468320777352
- expires_at: 2026-08-04T09:39:47.845121
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.70468320777352
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.2996
- obi_top10 : 0.3144
- micro_price : 2.01488256
- spread_pct : 0.049652
- mid_price : 2.0145
- bid_wall_price : 1.98
- bid_wall_size : 31417
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 2.04
- ask_wall_size : 29263.8
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.3055
- obi_top5_std : 0.004
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7037
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
2.1025
- balance_zone_bottom:
2.0169
- balance_zone_mid:
2.0597
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785495600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785790800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.8061
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
83
- balance_zone_quality: drifting
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7047
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785787200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
2.0169
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7349
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.0557
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
18
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.03050519 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
83
inside_close_ratio
0.7349
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.0557
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:39 | 2.01520000 | 0% |
| 2 | 17:46 | 2.01520000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7037ms
Confidence avant OB :
70%
→
60%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.300
avg 0.306
± 0.004
OBI Top 10
0.314
Microstructure
Mid Price
2.0145
Micro Price
2.0149
Spread
0.0497%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
1.9800
Size
31,417.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
2.0400
Size
29,263.80
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0152 | 2.0628 | 1.8963 | 2.5 | 3.6496 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.0152
- Stop Loss: 2.0628
- Take Profit: 1.8963
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.0628 - 2.0152 = 0.0476
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.0152 - 1.8963 = 0.1189
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1189 / 0.0476 = 2.4979
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 339.0415 | 100 | 168.2421 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0476
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0476 = 168.07
Taille de position USD = 168.07 x 2.0152 = 338.69
Donc, tu peux acheter 168.07 avec un stoploss a 2.0628
Avec un position size USD de 338.69$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 168.07 x 0.0476 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 168.07 x 0.1189 = 19.98
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.98$
Résumé
- Taille de position 168.07
- Taille de position USD 338.69
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.98
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4979
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.9 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.36 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 0.77 $ | 0.23 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.7269 % | 73.11 % | 27 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0152 | 2.0628 | 1.8963 | 2.5 | 3.6496 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.0152
- Stop Loss: 2.0628
- Take Profit: 1.8963
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.0628 - 2.0152 = 0.0476
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.0152 - 1.8963 = 0.1189
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1189 / 0.0476 = 2.4979
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.362%
(0.0476)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.293% | 0.1R | -0.347% | 0.2R | 0.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.566% | 0.2R | -0.347% | 0.2R | 1.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.804% | 0.3R | -0.531% | 0.2R | 1.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.107% | 0.5R | -1.727% | 0.7R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.107% | 0.5R | -1.727% | 0.7R | 0.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.107% | 0.5R | -5.295% | 2.2R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.