Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 543478.26 PENGU at 0.00615$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006179 (0.47 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006135 (0.24 %)
Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 543478.26 PENGU at 0.00615$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006179 (0.47 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006135 (0.24 %)
Position
Entry 0.00615$
Qty 543478.2609 PENGU
Size 3342.3913$ (margin 100$) (leverage 33)
Risk Setup
TP 0.006179 (+0.47%)
TP $ 15.76$
SL 0.006135 (-0.24%)
SL $ 8.15$
RR 1.93
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3346
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.28×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.91×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.83×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 03/08 18:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.571027 15m : 0.549047 |
1H_regime : bull_high 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 02/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 03/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 03/08 17:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | range | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5315 | r1h: -0.129% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.69% · r3d: 3.45% · ema21_slope: 0.0521% · dist_ema21: 0.509% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5186 | rs_1h: 0.054% · rs_4h: 0.360% · rs_1d: -0.82% · rs_3d: 2.30% · beta_24h: 0.818 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1747 | rvol_20: 0.44× · zscore_50: -0.379 · trend: -57.51% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6189 | ADX: 21.5 (weak) · Chop: 45.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.741% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.179% | 0.7R | -0.163% | 0.7R | 1.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.195% | 0.8R | -0.211% | 0.9R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +1.187% | 4.9R | -1.024% | 4.2R | 1.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.317% | 5.4R | -1.024% | 4.2R | 1.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.317% | 5.4R | -1.024% | 4.2R | 1.3× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_high | -4.93% | +0.53 | 02/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | 0.70 | range_high | -0.31% | +0.13 | 03/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | near 0.3ATR | 0.54 | range_medium | +0.40% | +0.06 | 03/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | explosive | compression | range_low |
40%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | — | range_low | +0.49% | +0.05 | 03/08 17:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 30b | — | 2.213×ATR | p0 | +0.368×ATR | p35 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 0.786×ATR | p0 | +0.473×ATR | p49 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 7b | — | 1.028×ATR | p2 | +0.257×ATR | p30 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 5b | — | 1.394×ATR | p3 | -0.174×ATR | p26 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63665.9
-0.00144468
63574
0.571027
63391.6
0.0028763
63574
0.549047
63453.8
0.000190989
63466
Array
(
[left_window] => 5
[right_window] => 5
[recent_pivots] => Array
(
[0] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-07-31 14:00:00
[1] => 0.005936
[2] => L
)
[1] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-01 04:00:00
[1] => 0.006184
[2] => H
)
[2] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-01 16:00:00
[1] => 0.005975
[2] => H
)
[3] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-01 18:00:00
[1] => 0.005857
[2] => L
)
[4] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-02 03:00:00
[1] => 0.006201
[2] => H
)
[5] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-02 10:00:00
[1] => 0.006033
[2] => L
)
[6] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-02 12:00:00
[1] => 0.006253
[2] => H
)
[7] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-02 21:00:00
[1] => 0.006271
[2] => H
)
[8] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 08:00:00
[1] => 0.00601
[2] => L
)
[9] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 14:00:00
[1] => 0.006219
[2] => H
)
)
[detected_trend] => downtrend
[features] => Array
(
[ms_trend_state] => -1
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.7557485126226
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 2.6955074875208
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 7
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 13
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 3.477537437604
[ms_bos_up] => 0
[ms_bos_down] => 1
[ms_choch_up] => 0
[ms_choch_down] => 1
)
)
Array
(
[left_window] => 5
[right_window] => 5
[recent_pivots] => Array
(
[0] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 08:15:00
[1] => 0.00601
[2] => L
)
[1] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 09:45:00
[1] => 0.006099
[2] => H
)
[2] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 11:00:00
[1] => 0.006041
[2] => L
)
[3] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 13:30:00
[1] => 0.006088
[2] => L
)
[4] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 14:15:00
[1] => 0.006219
[2] => H
)
[5] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 16:30:00
[1] => 0.006136
[2] => L
)
[6] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 18:15:00
[1] => 0.006191
[2] => H
)
[7] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 20:00:00
[1] => 0.006156
[2] => L
)
[8] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 20:15:00
[1] => 0.006197
[2] => H
)
[9] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 22:00:00
[1] => 0.00615
[2] => L
)
)
[detected_trend] => range
[features] => Array
(
[ms_trend_state] => 0
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.75843149911248
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 0
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 7
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 0
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 0.76422764227643
[ms_bos_up] => 1
[ms_bos_down] => 1
[ms_choch_up] => 0
[ms_choch_down] => 0
)
)
Array
(
[left_window] => 5
[right_window] => 5
[recent_pivots] => Array
(
[0] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 18:20:00
[1] => 0.006191
[2] => H
)
[1] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 18:45:00
[1] => 0.006164
[2] => L
)
[2] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 18:55:00
[1] => 0.006182
[2] => H
)
[3] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 19:25:00
[1] => 0.006179
[2] => H
)
[4] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 20:00:00
[1] => 0.006156
[2] => L
)
[5] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 20:20:00
[1] => 0.006197
[2] => H
)
[6] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 20:50:00
[1] => 0.006168
[2] => L
)
[7] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 21:00:00
[1] => 0.00619
[2] => H
)
[8] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 21:25:00
[1] => 0.00616
[2] => L
)
[9] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-03 22:00:00
[1] => 0.00615
[2] => L
)
)
[detected_trend] => downtrend
[features] => Array
(
[ms_trend_state] => -1
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.64620355411955
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 0
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 12
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 0
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 0.16260162601625
[ms_bos_up] => 0
[ms_bos_down] => 1
[ms_choch_up] => 0
[ms_choch_down] => 0
)
)
0.006219
192
0.5877
0.6474
0.3413
0.2391
0.425
0.8008
0.2246
0.5427
0.3736
0.1472
0.6341
0.8167
0.0926
0.0674
1
0.7134
1.5246
0.5
0.5
-1
13
1
0.5218
0.5664
5.1593
0.55
0.8008
4.1316
1.5246
0.0669
0.2578
0
-0.0792
0.5017
0.5386
0.6143
0.8167
-2.3499
10.4679
1
1
1
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:04 | 0.00615000 | 0% |
| 2 | 18:10 | 0.00614700 | -0.049% |
| 3 | 18:34 | 0.00614500 | -0.081% |
| 4 | 18:39 | 0.00614400 | -0.098% |
| 5 | 18:45 | 0.00614300 | -0.114% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 18:20:00 | 0.006191 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 18:45:00 | 0.006164 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 18:55:00 | 0.006182 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 19:25:00 | 0.006179 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 20:00:00 | 0.006156 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 20:20:00 | 0.006197 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 20:50:00 | 0.006168 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 21:00:00 | 0.00619 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 21:25:00 | 0.00616 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 22:00:00 | 0.00615 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 08:15:00 | 0.00601 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 09:45:00 | 0.006099 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 11:00:00 | 0.006041 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 13:30:00 | 0.006088 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 14:15:00 | 0.006219 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 16:30:00 | 0.006136 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 18:15:00 | 0.006191 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 20:00:00 | 0.006156 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 20:15:00 | 0.006197 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 22:00:00 | 0.00615 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 14:00:00 | 0.005936 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 04:00:00 | 0.006184 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 16:00:00 | 0.005975 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 0.005857 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 03:00:00 | 0.006201 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 10:00:00 | 0.006033 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 12:00:00 | 0.006253 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 21:00:00 | 0.006271 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 08:00:00 | 0.00601 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 14:00:00 | 0.006219 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00615 | 0.006135 | 0.006179 | 1.93 | 0.009206 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006135 - 0.00615 = -1.5E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.00615 - 0.006179 = -2.9E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -2.9E-5 / -1.5E-5 = 1.9333
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3342.3913 | 100 | 543478.2609 | 33.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -1.5E-5 = -533333.33
Taille de position USD = -533333.33 x 0.00615 = -3280
Donc, tu peux acheter -533333.33 avec un stoploss a 0.006135
Avec un position size USD de -3280$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -533333.33 x -1.5E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -533333.33 x -2.9E-5 = 15.47
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 15.47$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.47 % | 15.76 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.24 % | 8.15 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.15 $ | -0.24 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.2602 % | 106.68 % | 9 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00615 | 0.006135 | 0.006179 | 1.93 | 0.009206 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006135 - 0.00615 = -1.5E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.00615 - 0.006179 = -2.9E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -2.9E-5 / -1.5E-5 = 1.9333
Array
(
)
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.006179
[entry_price] => 0.00615
[stop_loss] => 0.0061335
[rr_ratio] => 1.76
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-04 00:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.006179
[entry_price] => 0.00615
[stop_loss] => 0.006132
[rr_ratio] => 1.61
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-04 00:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.006179
[entry_price] => 0.00615
[stop_loss] => 0.0061305
[rr_ratio] => 1.49
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-04 00:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.006179
[entry_price] => 0.00615
[stop_loss] => 0.0061275
[rr_ratio] => 1.29
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-04 00:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.179% | 0.7R | -0.163% | 0.7R | 1.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.195% | 0.8R | -0.211% | 0.9R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +1.187% | 4.9R | -1.024% | 4.2R | 1.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.317% | 5.4R | -1.024% | 4.2R | 1.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.317% | 5.4R | -1.024% | 4.2R | 1.3× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
Aucun commentaire.