Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 631412.79 PENGU at 0.00612$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006146 (0.41 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006108 (0.21 %)
Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 631412.79 PENGU at 0.00612$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006146 (0.41 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006108 (0.21 %)
Position
Entry 0.006121$
Qty 631412.7861 PENGU
Size 3864.8777$ (margin 100$) (leverage 39)
Risk Setup
TP 0.006146 (+0.41%)
TP $ 15.79$
SL 0.006108 (-0.21%)
SL $ 8.21$
RR 1.92
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3410
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.02×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.08×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.96×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 03/08 20:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.548838 15m : 0.568772 |
1H_regime : bull_medium 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 03/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 03/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_medium (+1) 03/08 20:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5298 | r1h: 0.033% · r4h: -0.162% · r1d: 0.05% · r3d: 2.98% · ema21_slope: 0.0621% · dist_ema21: 0.166% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5375 | rs_1h: 0.223% · rs_4h: 0.424% · rs_1d: 0.20% · rs_3d: 2.02% · beta_24h: 0.809 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1688 | rvol_20: 0.12× · zscore_50: -0.468 · trend: -69.95% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5693 | ADX: 20.7 (weak) · Chop: 51.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.696% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.866% | 4.1R | -0.556% | 2.6R | 1.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.666% | 7.9R | -0.556% | 2.6R | 3.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +1.797% | 8.5R | -0.556% | 2.6R | 3.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.797% | 8.5R | -0.556% | 2.6R | 3.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.797% | 8.5R | -0.817% | 3.9R | 2.2× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near -0.6ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_high | -5.36% | +0.08 | 03/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.69 | range_high | -0.59% | +0.23 | 03/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | compression | bull_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.54 | range_medium | +0.05% | +0.03 | 03/08 20:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | range_low |
39%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | — | — | range_low | +0.03% | +0.03 | 03/08 20:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 31b | — | 2.448×ATR | p0 | +0.258×ATR | p27 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 7b | — | 0.951×ATR | p0 | +0.337×ATR | p34 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 10b | — | 1.82×ATR | p12 | -0.323×ATR | p35 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 1b | — | 1.711×ATR | p10 | -0.629×ATR | p66 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63661
-0.00427413
63389
0.548838
63409.7
-0.000326527
63389
0.568772
63447.2
-0.000239605
63432
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[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 2
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0.2324
0.4125
0.8008
0.1649
0.5248
0.3736
0.0725
0.6514
0.7476
0.0522
0.0564
0.6667
-0.0588
0.7854
0.5
0.5
-1
16
1
0.5352
0.5664
5.1593
0.55
0.8008
4.1316
0.7854
0.0669
0.2778
0
-0.1912
0.4571
0.538
0.8548
0.7476
-3.452
10.2223
1
1
1
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20:33 | 0.00612100 | 0% |
| 2 | 20:38 | 0.00610800 | -0.212% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 20:20:00 | 0.006197 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 20:50:00 | 0.006168 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 21:00:00 | 0.00619 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 21:25:00 | 0.00616 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 22:05:00 | 0.00614 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 22:50:00 | 0.006157 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 23:05:00 | 0.006137 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 23:20:00 | 0.006137 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 00:10:00 | 0.006171 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 00:30:00 | 0.006117 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 09:45:00 | 0.006099 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 11:00:00 | 0.006041 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 13:30:00 | 0.006088 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 14:15:00 | 0.006219 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 16:30:00 | 0.006136 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 18:15:00 | 0.006191 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 20:00:00 | 0.006156 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 20:15:00 | 0.006197 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 00:00:00 | 0.006171 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 00:30:00 | 0.006117 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 04:00:00 | 0.006184 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 16:00:00 | 0.005975 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 0.005857 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 03:00:00 | 0.006201 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 10:00:00 | 0.006033 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 12:00:00 | 0.006253 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 21:00:00 | 0.006271 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 08:00:00 | 0.00601 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 14:00:00 | 0.006219 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 23:00:00 | 0.006137 | ↓ Low |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006121 | 0.006108 | 0.006146 | 1.92 | 0.009069 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006108 - 0.006121 = -1.3E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006121 - 0.006146 = -2.5000000000001E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -2.5000000000001E-5 / -1.3E-5 = 1.9231
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3864.8777 | 100 | 631412.7861 | 39.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -1.3E-5 = -615384.62
Taille de position USD = -615384.62 x 0.006121 = -3766.77
Donc, tu peux acheter -615384.62 avec un stoploss a 0.006108
Avec un position size USD de -3766.77$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -615384.62 x -1.3E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -615384.62 x -2.5000000000001E-5 = 15.38
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 15.38$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.41 % | 15.79 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.21 % | 8.21 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.21 $ | -0.21 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.2124 % | 100 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006121 | 0.006108 | 0.006146 | 1.92 | 0.009069 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006108 - 0.006121 = -1.3E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006121 - 0.006146 = -2.5000000000001E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -2.5000000000001E-5 / -1.3E-5 = 1.9231
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.866% | 4.1R | -0.556% | 2.6R | 1.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.666% | 7.9R | -0.556% | 2.6R | 3.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +1.797% | 8.5R | -0.556% | 2.6R | 3.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.797% | 8.5R | -0.556% | 2.6R | 3.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.797% | 8.5R | -0.817% | 3.9R | 2.2× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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