Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 25433.97 ARB at 0.083$ per unit. Take profit: 0.0836 (0.76 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08266 (0.37 %)
Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 25433.97 ARB at 0.083$ per unit. Take profit: 0.0836 (0.76 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08266 (0.37 %)
Position
Entry 0.08297$
Qty 25433.9671 ARB
Size 2110.2562$ (margin 100$) (leverage 21)
Risk Setup
TP 0.0836 (+0.76%)
TP $ 16.02$
SL 0.08266 (-0.37%)
SL $ 7.88$
RR 2.03
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7717
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.62×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 3.29×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 29.05×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 2 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 04/08 00:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.459125 15m : 0.446811 |
1H_regime : bull_high 15m_regime : bull_medium 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 03/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 03/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1) 03/08 23:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6241 | r1h: -0.381% · r4h: 1.076% · r1d: 3.65% · r3d: 6.92% · ema21_slope: 0.1260% · dist_ema21: 1.727% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5692 | rs_1h: -0.389% · rs_4h: 0.585% · rs_1d: 2.12% · rs_3d: 5.60% · beta_24h: 0.661 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4510 | rvol_20: 1.09× · zscore_50: 0.198 · trend: 57.32% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6558 | ADX: 22.7 (weak) · Chop: 42.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.894% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.663% | 1.8R | -0.096% | 0.3R | 6.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.663% | 1.8R | -0.096% | 0.3R | 6.9× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.663% | 1.8R | -0.832% | 2.2R | 0.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.663% | 1.8R | -1.290% | 3.5R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.663% | 1.8R | -2.411% | 6.5R | 0.3× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -5.36% | -0.40 | 03/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | normal | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | — | — | 0.66 | range_high | -0.23% | +0.61 | 03/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bull_high_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | near -0.6ATR | 0.57 | range_medium | +0.61% | +0.21 | 03/08 23:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | fading | expansion | bull_medium_confirmed |
66%
|
noisy_chop 52% | early | — | — | — | range_low | +0.55% | +0.16 | 03/08 23:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 23b | — | 4.629×ATR | p61 | +0.526×ATR | p53 |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | 21b | — | 6.291×ATR | p89 | +1.487×ATR | p94 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 18b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | +0.948×ATR | p79 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 1b | — | 1.327×ATR | p0 | +0.65×ATR | p56 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63686
0.00155316
63785
0.459125
63425
0.00567568
63785
0.446811
63448.5
0.00520791
63779
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0.08121
180
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0.2572
0.3333
0.6897
0.4937
0.4723
0.3934
0.928
0.8264
0.8872
0.1515
0.1052
1
1.0788
2.3113
0.5
0.5
-1
20
1
0.4855
0.8434
3.521
0.6
0.6897
2.4284
2.3113
0.5858
0.2286
0.88
0.3127
0.5953
0.5839
0.9145
0.8872
-1.2635
9.9367
1
0
1
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 21:35:00 | 0.08291 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 22:05:00 | 0.08206 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 22:35:00 | 0.08208 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 23:00:00 | 0.08234 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 00:10:00 | 0.08313 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 00:55:00 | 0.08185 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 03:05:00 | 0.08403 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 03:15:00 | 0.08324 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 03:35:00 | 0.08389 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 04:10:00 | 0.08297 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 15:45:00 | 0.081 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 16:45:00 | 0.08197 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 17:15:00 | 0.08197 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 18:45:00 | 0.08134 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 21:30:00 | 0.08291 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 22:00:00 | 0.08206 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 00:00:00 | 0.08313 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 00:45:00 | 0.08185 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 03:00:00 | 0.08403 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 04:00:00 | 0.08297 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 17:00:00 | 0.07771 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.07893 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 06:00:00 | 0.0776 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 13:00:00 | 0.07883 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 0.07687 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 05:00:00 | 0.08225 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 14:00:00 | 0.08015 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 22:00:00 | 0.08184 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 08:00:00 | 0.07981 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 03:00:00 | 0.08403 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08297 | 0.08266 | 0.0836 | 2.03 | 0.2052 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08266 - 0.08297 = -0.00031
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.08297 - 0.0836 = -0.00062999999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00062999999999999 / -0.00031 = 2.0323
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2110.2562 | 100 | 25433.9671 | 21.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -0.00031 = -25806.45
Taille de position USD = -25806.45 x 0.08297 = -2141.16
Donc, tu peux acheter -25806.45 avec un stoploss a 0.08266
Avec un position size USD de -2141.16$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -25806.45 x -0.00031 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -25806.45 x -0.00062999999999999 = 16.26
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16.26$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.76 % | 16.02 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.37 % | 7.88 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.88 $ | -0.37 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3977 % | 106.45 % | 4 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08297 | 0.08266 | 0.0836 | 2.03 | 0.2052 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08266 - 0.08297 = -0.00031
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.08297 - 0.0836 = -0.00062999999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00062999999999999 / -0.00031 = 2.0323
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.663% | 1.8R | -0.096% | 0.3R | 6.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.663% | 1.8R | -0.096% | 0.3R | 6.9× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.663% | 1.8R | -0.832% | 2.2R | 0.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.663% | 1.8R | -1.290% | 3.5R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.663% | 1.8R | -2.411% | 6.5R | 0.3× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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