Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 28520.5 ARB at 0.0814$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08198 (0.69 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08114 (0.34 %)
Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 28520.5 ARB at 0.0814$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08198 (0.69 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08114 (0.34 %)
Position
Entry 0.08142$
Qty 28520.4991 ARB
Size 2322.139$ (margin 100$) (leverage 23)
Risk Setup
TP 0.08198 (+0.69%)
TP $ 15.97$
SL 0.08114 (-0.34%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6134
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.16×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 5.14×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 28.56×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 2 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 04/08 09:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.711112 15m : 0.521479 |
1H_regime : bull_high 15m_regime : bear_low_confirmed 5m_regime : bear_low_confirmed |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 03/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 04/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 04/08 09:00 Score : -2 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5442 | r1h: -0.219% · r4h: -0.401% · r1d: 1.02% · r3d: 4.41% · ema21_slope: 0.0666% · dist_ema21: -0.304% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4794 | rs_1h: -0.292% · rs_4h: -1.013% · rs_1d: -1.00% · rs_3d: 3.03% · beta_24h: 0.661 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1606 | rvol_20: 0.29× · zscore_50: -0.847 · trend: -37.24% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4839 | ADX: 16.0 (weak) · Chop: 56.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.749% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.553% | 1.6R | -0.553% | 1.6R | 1.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.663% | 1.9R | -0.553% | 1.6R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.663% | 1.9R | -0.553% | 1.6R | 1.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.376% | 4.0R | -0.553% | 1.6R | 2.5× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.376% | 4.0R | -0.860% | 2.5R | 1.6× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | — | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -4.96% | -0.55 | 03/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | range_high |
44%
|
noisy_chop 44% | early | — | — | 0.65 | range_high | +0.10% | +0.32 | 04/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bull_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 34% | mid | — | — | 0.57 | bull_medium | +0.80% | -0.02 | 04/08 09:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | explosive | expansion_after_compression | range_low |
44%
|
noisy_chop 45% | early | — | near -0.5ATR | — | range_low | +0.60% | -0.13 | 04/08 09:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 23b | — | 4.789×ATR | p61 | +0.23×ATR | p29 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 1.844×ATR | p0 | -0.169×ATR | p22 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 10b | — | 3.589×ATR | p76 | -0.704×ATR | p66 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 2.975×ATR | p41 | +0.343×ATR | p27 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63754.3
0.000119464
63762
0.711112
63579.3
0.00387875
63826
0.521479
63424.7
0.00889579
63989
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0.0714
0.6131
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0.4713
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0.6667
-0.8403
0.2442
0.55
0.45
1
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0.5296
0.1921
3.7076
0.5
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0.2442
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0.2002
0.36
-0.0767
0.4992
0.5353
0.415
0.7344
-3.8012
10.512
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:54 | 0.08142000 | 0% |
| 2 | 10:01 | 0.08128000 | -0.172% |
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 10:45:00 | 0.0824 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 11:15:00 | 0.0819 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 11:25:00 | 0.0819 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 11:35:00 | 0.0819 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 11:55:00 | 0.08227 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 12:20:00 | 0.0819 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 12:35:00 | 0.08223 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 13:00:00 | 0.08124 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 13:40:00 | 0.08205 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 13:50:00 | 0.08132 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 21:30:00 | 0.08291 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 22:00:00 | 0.08206 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 00:00:00 | 0.08313 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 00:45:00 | 0.08185 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 03:00:00 | 0.08403 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 04:15:00 | 0.08289 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 06:15:00 | 0.08334 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 08:00:00 | 0.08273 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 11:15:00 | 0.0819 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 13:00:00 | 0.08124 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.07893 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 06:00:00 | 0.0776 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-01 13:00:00 | 0.07883 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-01 18:00:00 | 0.07687 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 05:00:00 | 0.08225 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-02 14:00:00 | 0.08015 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-02 22:00:00 | 0.08184 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-03 08:00:00 | 0.07981 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 03:00:00 | 0.08403 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 13:00:00 | 0.08124 | ↓ Low |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08142 | 0.08114 | 0.08198 | 2 | 0.2033 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08114 - 0.08142 = -0.00028
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.08142 - 0.08198 = -0.00055999999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00055999999999999 / -0.00028 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2322.139 | 100 | 28520.4991 | 23.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -0.00028 = -28571.43
Taille de position USD = -28571.43 x 0.08142 = -2326.29
Donc, tu peux acheter -28571.43 avec un stoploss a 0.08114
Avec un position size USD de -2326.29$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -28571.43 x -0.00028 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -28571.43 x -0.00055999999999999 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.69 % | 15.97 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.34 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.99 $ | -0.34 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3562 % | 103.58 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08142 | 0.08114 | 0.08198 | 2 | 0.2033 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08114 - 0.08142 = -0.00028
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.08142 - 0.08198 = -0.00055999999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00055999999999999 / -0.00028 = 2
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.553% | 1.6R | -0.553% | 1.6R | 1.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.663% | 1.9R | -0.553% | 1.6R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.663% | 1.9R | -0.553% | 1.6R | 1.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.376% | 4.0R | -0.553% | 1.6R | 2.5× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.376% | 4.0R | -0.860% | 2.5R | 1.6× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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