Long Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1.3 TAO at 197.55$ per unit. Take profit: 212.952 (7.8 %) & Stop Loss: 191.3892 (3.12 %)
04 Aug 2026 at 15:14:54
hyperliquid
TAO
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
04 Aug 2026 15:14
→ 03:10
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 197.55$
Qty 1.2985 TAO
Size 256.525$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 212.952 (+7.8%)
TP $ 20$
SL 191.3892 (-3.12%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.49%
/ -1.26$
MAE -1.23%
MFE +1.82%
0.6R
expires
05 Aug 03:14
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 58566)
#3 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 04/08/2026 15:00
score du 04/08/2026 15:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5447
Quality Score
0.724
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
3.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
04/08 15:01
04/08 15:01
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#3 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-2
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.12 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#3 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.12 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.43×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.34×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 11.15×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_medium_confirmed rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 2 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (+1) 04/08 15:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 03/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 04/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1) 04/08 14:00 Score : -2 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1291
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | range | — | 0 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | +1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.50
Transition risk :
0.50
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.70
Snapshot évalué :
04/08 15:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
04/08/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.7237
Score SMA
0.5153
Rank
#3
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5447
Rank Norm SMA
0.3716
Calculé le
04/08/2026 15:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6414 | r1h: 1.701% · r4h: 2.224% · r1d: 3.15% · r3d: 3.22% · ema21_slope: 0.0376% · dist_ema21: 2.516% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6257 | rs_1h: 1.197% · rs_4h: 1.962% · rs_1d: 2.48% · rs_3d: 0.47% · beta_24h: 0.962 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.8796 | rvol_20: 2.75× · zscore_50: 1.804 · trend: 167.98% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6597 | ADX: 19.2 (weak) · Chop: 33.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.866% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.119%
(6.1608)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.817% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.817% | 0.6R | -0.208% | 0.1R | 8.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.817% | 0.6R | -0.699% | 0.2R | 2.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.817% | 0.6R | -1.225% | 0.4R | 1.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.817% | 0.6R | -1.225% | 0.4R | 1.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.817% | 0.6R | -1.686% | 0.5R | 1.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 4.82
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 32% | late | — | — | 0.61 | bear_high | -4.55% | -0.12 | 03/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | range_high |
38%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | near 0.3ATR | 0.71 | range_high | +0.29% | -0.19 | 04/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion | bull_high_confirmed |
59%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | — | near -0.4ATR | 0.64 | bull_medium | +1.15% | +0.17 | 04/08 14:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | weak | fading | volatile_reversal | bull_medium_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 52% | late | — | — | — | bull_low | +0.80% | +0.15 | 04/08 14:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 50b | — | 10.518×ATR | p92 | +0.189×ATR | p23 |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | 7b | — | 2.525×ATR | p27 | +1.05×ATR | p90 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 9b | — | 4.095×ATR | p82 | +2.298×ATR | p99 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 8b | — | 5.425×ATR | p98 | +1.927×ATR | p97 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.798
- reason: up_bo width=2.36×ATR dur=47b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 191.38919584
- tp_price: 212.95201039
- atr:
- score: 0.79801757736105
- expires_at: 2026-08-05T07:14:46.491760
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.79801757736105
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1358
- obi_top10 : -0.003
- micro_price : 199.46968358
- spread_pct : 0.015042
- mid_price : 199.455
- bid_wall_price : 196
- bid_wall_size : 2346.0366
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1362
- obi_top5_std : 0.0021
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7001
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
193.64
- balance_zone_bottom:
189.49
- balance_zone_mid:
191.565
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785704400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785870000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3606
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
47
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.798
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785866400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
193.64
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.766
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
2.2241
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bull_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 1.75804156 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
47
inside_close_ratio
0.766
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
2.2241
Signaux confirmants (46)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:14 | 197.55000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 15:20 | 199.00000000 | +0.734% |
| 3 | 15:26 | 199.00000000 | +0.734% |
| 4 | 15:33 | 199.00000000 | +0.734% |
| 5 | 15:50 | 198.97000000 | +0.719% |
| 6 | 15:56 | 198.97000000 | +0.719% |
| 7 | 16:04 | 198.97000000 | +0.719% |
| 8 | 16:20 | 199.11000000 | +0.79% |
| 9 | 16:26 | 199.11000000 | +0.79% |
| 10 | 16:33 | 199.11000000 | +0.79% |
| 11 | 16:38 | 198.15000000 | +0.304% |
| 12 | 16:45 | 198.15000000 | +0.304% |
| 13 | 16:51 | 198.38000000 | +0.42% |
| 14 | 16:57 | 198.38000000 | +0.42% |
| 15 | 17:04 | 198.38000000 | +0.42% |
| 16 | 17:09 | 198.01000000 | +0.233% |
| 17 | 17:15 | 198.01000000 | +0.233% |
| 18 | 17:21 | 197.38000000 | -0.086% |
| 19 | 17:27 | 197.38000000 | -0.086% |
| 20 | 17:33 | 197.38000000 | -0.086% |
| 21 | 17:39 | 196.67000000 | -0.445% |
| 22 | 17:45 | 196.67000000 | -0.445% |
| 23 | 17:51 | 196.84000000 | -0.359% |
| 24 | 17:57 | 196.84000000 | -0.359% |
| 25 | 18:04 | 196.84000000 | -0.359% |
| 26 | 18:09 | 196.59000000 | -0.486% |
| 27 | 18:15 | 196.59000000 | -0.486% |
| 28 | 18:21 | 196.26000000 | -0.653% |
| 29 | 18:26 | 196.26000000 | -0.653% |
| 30 | 18:33 | 196.26000000 | -0.653% |
| 31 | 18:39 | 196.28000000 | -0.643% |
| 32 | 18:45 | 196.28000000 | -0.643% |
| 33 | 18:51 | 196.50000000 | -0.532% |
| 34 | 18:56 | 196.50000000 | -0.532% |
| 35 | 19:04 | 196.50000000 | -0.532% |
| 36 | 19:09 | 196.94000000 | -0.309% |
| 37 | 19:14 | 196.94000000 | -0.309% |
| 38 | 19:21 | 197.24000000 | -0.157% |
| 39 | 19:26 | 197.24000000 | -0.157% |
| 40 | 19:33 | 197.24000000 | -0.157% |
| 41 | 19:39 | 195.71000000 | -0.931% |
| 42 | 19:44 | 195.71000000 | -0.931% |
| 43 | 19:50 | 196.09000000 | -0.739% |
| 44 | 19:56 | 196.09000000 | -0.739% |
| 45 | 20:04 | 196.09000000 | -0.739% |
| 46 | 20:09 | 195.52000000 | -1.028% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7001ms
Confidence avant OB :
80%
→
80%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.136
avg 0.136
± 0.002
OBI Top 10
-0.003
Microstructure
Mid Price
199.4550
Micro Price
199.4697
Spread
0.0150%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
196.0000
Size
2,346.04
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 197.55 | 191.3892 | 212.952 | 2.5 | 302.91 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 197.55
- Stop Loss: 191.3892
- Take Profit: 212.952
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 191.3892 - 197.55 = -6.1608
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 197.55 - 212.952 = -15.402
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -15.402 / -6.1608 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 256.525 | 100 | 1.2985 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -6.1608
Taille de position = 8 / -6.1608 = -1.3
Taille de position USD = -1.3 x 197.55 = -256.82
Donc, tu peux acheter -1.3 avec un stoploss a 191.3892
Avec un position size USD de -256.82$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -1.3 x -6.1608 = 8.01
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.01$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -1.3 x -15.402 = 20.02
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.02$
Résumé
- Taille de position -1.3
- Taille de position USD -256.82
- Perte potentielle 8.01
- Gain potentiel 20.02
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 7.8 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.12 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -1.26 $ | -0.49 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.225 % | 39.28 % | 17 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 197.55 | 191.3892 | 212.952 | 2.5 | 302.91 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 197.55
- Stop Loss: 191.3892
- Take Profit: 212.952
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 191.3892 - 197.55 = -6.1608
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 197.55 - 212.952 = -15.402
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -15.402 / -6.1608 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.119%
(6.1608)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.817% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.817% | 0.6R | -0.208% | 0.1R | 8.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.817% | 0.6R | -0.699% | 0.2R | 2.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.817% | 0.6R | -1.225% | 0.4R | 1.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.817% | 0.6R | -1.225% | 0.4R | 1.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.817% | 0.6R | -1.686% | 0.5R | 1.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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