Short Trade on AAVE (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 4.45 AAVE at 90.618$ per unit. Take profit: 86.1278 (4.96 %) & Stop Loss: 92.4141 (1.98 %)
04 Aug 2026 at 15:37:52
hyperliquid
AAVE
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
04 Aug 2026 15:37
→ 03:35
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 90.618$
Qty 4.4541 AAVE
Size 403.626$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 86.1278 (+4.96%)
TP $ 20$
SL 92.4141 (-1.98%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.16%
/ -4.69$
MAE -1.69%
MFE +1.15%
0.6R
expires
05 Aug 03:37
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 58554)
#21 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 04/08/2026 15:00
score du 04/08/2026 15:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3546
Quality Score
0.548
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
7.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
04/08 15:30
04/08 15:30
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#21 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#21 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | 0.04×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.98×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 04/08 15:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 03/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 04/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 04/08 15:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
04/08/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.5482
Score SMA
0.4813
Rank
#21
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3546
Rank Norm SMA
0.2482
Calculé le
04/08/2026 15:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4097 | r1h: -0.449% · r4h: -1.495% · r1d: -3.33% · r3d: -0.02% · ema21_slope: -0.0916% · dist_ema21: -1.802% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3507 | rs_1h: -0.952% · rs_4h: -1.757% · rs_1d: -4.00% · rs_3d: -2.76% · beta_24h: 0.684 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.7175 | rvol_20: 2.01× · zscore_50: 1.482 · trend: 83.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6274 | ADX: 17.9 (weak) · Chop: 40.9 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.910% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.982%
(1.7961)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.770% | 0.4R | -0.051% | 0.0R | 15.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.770% | 0.4R | -0.182% | 0.1R | 4.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.770% | 0.4R | -0.217% | 0.1R | 3.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.150% | 0.6R | -0.872% | 0.4R | 1.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.150% | 0.6R | -1.685% | 0.9R | 0.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.150% | 0.6R | -1.693% | 0.9R | 0.7× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 4.14
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near -1.0ATR | — | 0.72 | bear_high | -4.55% | -0.45 | 03/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.50 | range_high | +0.60% | -0.30 | 04/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | — | 0.55 | bull_medium | +1.22% | -0.31 | 04/08 15:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | expansion | bear_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 45% | early | — | — | 0.60 | range_low | +0.73% | -0.11 | 04/08 15:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 2.382×ATR | p0 | -0.593×ATR | p57 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 2.12×ATR | p3 | -0.869×ATR | p74 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 1.439×ATR | p0 | -0.164×ATR | p16 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 4b | — | 2.041×ATR | p15 | +0.404×ATR | p40 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8061
- reason: down_bo width=2.96×ATR dur=47b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 92.41407858
- tp_price: 86.12780356
- atr:
- score: 0.80607710672774
- expires_at: 2026-08-05T07:37:44.266620
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.80607710672774
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0274
- obi_top10 : 0.0125
- micro_price : 90.64303846
- spread_pct : 0.011033
- mid_price : 90.645
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 91
- ask_wall_size : 5658
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0314
- obi_top5_std : 0.0051
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7034
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
93.5515
- balance_zone_bottom:
91.112
- balance_zone_mid:
92.33175
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785704400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785870000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9631
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
47
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8061
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785855600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
91.112
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8723
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
4
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.6
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.82328576 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
47
inside_close_ratio
0.8723
bars_since_breakout
4
distance_to_edge_atr
0.6
Signaux confirmants (8)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:37 | 90.61800000 | 0% |
| 2 | 15:43 | 90.61800000 | 0% |
| 3 | 15:49 | 90.59400000 | -0.026% |
| 4 | 15:55 | 90.59400000 | -0.026% |
| 5 | 16:03 | 90.59400000 | -0.026% |
| 6 | 16:49 | 90.75600000 | +0.152% |
| 7 | 16:55 | 90.75600000 | +0.152% |
| 8 | 17:02 | 90.75600000 | +0.152% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7034ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
81%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.027
avg -0.031
± 0.005
OBI Top 10
0.013
Microstructure
Mid Price
90.6450
Micro Price
90.6430
Spread
0.0110%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
91.0000
Size
5,658.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90.618 | 92.4141 | 86.1278 | 2.5 | 148.9 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 90.618
- Stop Loss: 92.4141
- Take Profit: 86.1278
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 92.4141 - 90.618 = 1.7961
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 90.618 - 86.1278 = 4.4902
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 4.4902 / 1.7961 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 403.626 | 100 | 4.4541 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 1.7961
Taille de position = 8 / 1.7961 = 4.45
Taille de position USD = 4.45 x 90.618 = 403.25
Donc, tu peux acheter 4.45 avec un stoploss a 92.4141
Avec un position size USD de 403.25$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 4.45 x 1.7961 = 7.99
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.99$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 4.45 x 4.4902 = 19.98
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.98$
Résumé
- Taille de position 4.45
- Taille de position USD 403.25
- Perte potentielle 7.99
- Gain potentiel 19.98
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.96 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.98 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -4.69 $ | -1.16 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6851 % | 85.02 % | 18 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90.618 | 92.4141 | 86.1278 | 2.5 | 148.9 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 90.618
- Stop Loss: 92.4141
- Take Profit: 86.1278
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 92.4141 - 90.618 = 1.7961
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 90.618 - 86.1278 = 4.4902
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 4.4902 / 1.7961 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.982%
(1.7961)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.770% | 0.4R | -0.051% | 0.0R | 15.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.770% | 0.4R | -0.182% | 0.1R | 4.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.770% | 0.4R | -0.217% | 0.1R | 3.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.150% | 0.6R | -0.872% | 0.4R | 1.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.150% | 0.6R | -1.685% | 0.9R | 0.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.150% | 0.6R | -1.693% | 0.9R | 0.7× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.