Short Trade on XRP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1026.4 XRP at 1.068$ per unit. Take profit: 1.0489 (1.83 %) & Stop Loss: 1.0762 (0.73 %)
04 Aug 2026 at 21:08:06
hyperliquid
XRP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
04 Aug 2026 21:08
→ 22:45
· 1 hour
Position
Entry 1.0684$
Qty 1026.4029 XRP
Size 1096.6089$ (margin 100$) (leverage 11)
Risk Setup
TP 1.0489 (+1.83%)
TP $ 20.01$
SL 1.0762 (-0.73%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.73%
/ -8.01$
MAE -0.74%
MFE +0.80%
1.1R
expires
05 Aug 09:07
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 58822)
#33 / 45
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 04/08/2026 21:00
score du 04/08/2026 21:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1643
Quality Score
0.467
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
14.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
04/08 21:00
04/08 21:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#33 / 45
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.73 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#33 / 45
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.73 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.14×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.43×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.40×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_low Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 04/08 21:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 04/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 04/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 04/08 20:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1297
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.50
Transition risk :
0.50
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.70
Snapshot évalué :
04/08 21:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
04/08/2026 21:00
Score brut
0.4673
Score SMA
0.4771
Rank
#33
/ 45
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1643
Rank Norm SMA
0.2124
Calculé le
04/08/2026 21:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4846 | r1h: -0.205% · r4h: -0.576% · r1d: 0.13% · r3d: 0.87% · ema21_slope: -0.0067% · dist_ema21: -0.382% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4694 | rs_1h: -0.157% · rs_4h: -0.139% · rs_1d: -0.97% · rs_3d: -1.09% · beta_24h: 0.787 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3008 | rvol_20: 1.04× · zscore_50: -0.333 · trend: -22.15% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.2961 | ADX: 7.4 (weak) · Chop: 71.0 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.473% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.730%
(0.0078)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.047% | 0.1R | -0.693% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.047% | 0.1R | -0.739% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.281% | 0.4R | -0.739% | 1.0R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.468% | 0.6R | -0.739% | 1.0R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.805% | 1.1R | -0.739% | 1.0R | 1.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.320% | 1.8R | -0.739% | 1.0R | 1.8× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.74
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | near -1.4ATR | — | 0.86 | bear_high | -4.59% | -0.16 | 04/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | near 0.4ATR | near 0.5ATR | 0.84 | range_high | +0.12% | -0.05 | 04/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | range_medium |
38%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | near -0.1ATR | — | 0.79 | range_medium | +0.68% | -0.08 | 04/08 20:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | range_low |
40%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | near -1.3ATR | — | — | range_low | +0.19% | -0.06 | 04/08 20:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 15b | — | 3.093×ATR | p20 | -0.184×ATR | p24 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 10b | — | 0.994×ATR | p0 | -0.359×ATR | p42 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 2.133×ATR | p33 | -0.673×ATR | p63 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 3.266×ATR | p59 | -1.323×ATR | p88 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.9478
- reason: down_bo width=2.31×ATR dur=26b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 1.07619421
- tp_price: 1.04891448
- atr:
- score: 0.94780496401788
- expires_at: 2026-08-05T13:07:58.199716
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.94780496401788
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0918
- obi_top10 : 0.0918
- micro_price : 1.0689975
- spread_pct : 0.009355
- mid_price : 1.06895
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0912
- obi_top5_std : 0.0006
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7032
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.0814
- balance_zone_bottom:
1.07
- balance_zone_mid:
1.0757
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785801600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785891600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3067
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
26
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: forming
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.9478
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785888000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
1.07
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8846
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.3238
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
2
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
6
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00494208 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
26
inside_close_ratio
0.8846
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3238
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21:08 | 1.06840000 | 0% |
| 2 | 21:14 | 1.06840000 | 0% |
| 3 | 21:19 | 1.06910000 | +0.066% |
| 4 | 21:25 | 1.06910000 | +0.066% |
| 5 | 21:32 | 1.06910000 | +0.066% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7032ms
Confidence avant OB :
95%
→
95%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.092
avg 0.091
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
0.092
Microstructure
Mid Price
1.0690
Micro Price
1.0690
Spread
0.0094%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0684 | 1.0762 | 1.0489 | 2.5 | 1.5707 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.0684
- Stop Loss: 1.0762
- Take Profit: 1.0489
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0762 - 1.0684 = 0.0078
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.0684 - 1.0489 = 0.0195
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0195 / 0.0078 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1096.6089 | 100 | 1026.4029 | 11.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0078
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0078 = 1025.64
Taille de position USD = 1025.64 x 1.0684 = 1095.79
Donc, tu peux acheter 1025.64 avec un stoploss a 1.0762
Avec un position size USD de 1095.79$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1025.64 x 0.0078 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1025.64 x 0.0195 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1025.64
- Taille de position USD 1095.79
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.83 % | 20.01 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.73 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.01 $ | -0.73 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7394 % | 101.27 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0684 | 1.0762 | 1.0489 | 2.5 | 1.5707 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.0684
- Stop Loss: 1.0762
- Take Profit: 1.0489
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0762 - 1.0684 = 0.0078
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.0684 - 1.0489 = 0.0195
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0195 / 0.0078 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.730%
(0.0078)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.047% | 0.1R | -0.693% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.047% | 0.1R | -0.739% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.281% | 0.4R | -0.739% | 1.0R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.468% | 0.6R | -0.739% | 1.0R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.805% | 1.1R | -0.739% | 1.0R | 1.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.320% | 1.8R | -0.739% | 1.0R | 1.8× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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