Short Trade on KAITO

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04 Aug 2026 at 22:10:05 hyperliquid

Short Trade on KAITO (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 167.97 KAITO at 0.909$ per unit. Take profit: 0.8867 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.9571 (5.25 %)

KAITO SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 04 Aug 2026 22:10 → 02:15 · 4 hours

Position

Entry 0.9094$

Qty 167.9704 KAITO

Size 152.759$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.8867 (+2.5%)

TP $ 3.81$

SL 0.9571 (-5.25%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR 0.48

Status loss PnL -1.76% / -2.68$ MAE -4.20% MFE +0.04% 0.0R expires 05 Aug 02:20 Exit rank_decay: short rank=25 <= threshold=33/43

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 58890)

#43 / 43 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 04/08/2026 22:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0511

Quality Score

0.354

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

98 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

4.9M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
04/08 22:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#43 / 43 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

98 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-1

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-1 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.25 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#43 / 43 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

98 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-1 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.25 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	0.24×ATR
4h	clear	0.84×ATR
1d	clear	1.63×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	early	OK
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_low Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 04/08 22:00 Score : -1

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : bull_moderate

rules_regime : bull_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_low

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : range_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1)

04/08 22:00

Score : -1

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 04/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 04/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 04/08 21:00 Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

04/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

04/08 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

04/08 21:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 1298

range compression range_bound

Strategic	range	compression	—	0
Operational	range	compression	—	0
Tactical	bull	expansion	—	-1
Micro	—		—

MTF alignment : 0.65

Stability : 0.50

Transition risk : 0.50

Score contribution (this trade) -1

Market Breadth

Breadth Score —

Impulse : —

% Positive (universe)

15m	—
1h	—
4h	—
24h	—

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	—	—
4h	—	—
24h	—	—

Dispersion : —

Universe : —

Regime confidence : 0.70

Snapshot évalué : 04/08 22:00 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 04/08/2026 22:00

Score brut

0.3540

Score SMA

0.3460

Rank

#43 / 43

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0511

Rank Norm SMA

0.0198

Calculé le

04/08/2026 22:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2845	r1h: -1.154% · r4h: -1.067% · r1d: -0.21% · r3d: -24.58% · ema21_slope: -0.0564% · dist_ema21: -0.480%
Force Relative	25%	0.2838	rs_1h: -1.449% · rs_4h: -1.048% · rs_1d: -0.72% · rs_3d: -26.45% · beta_24h: 0.402
Volume	20%	0.1482	rvol_20: 0.23× · zscore_50: -0.777 · trend: -61.69%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4537	ADX: 13.2 (weak) · Chop: 57.5 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.165% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 4.2h) Initial Risk: -5.245% (0.0477)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.036%	0.0R	-0.870%	0.2R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.036%	0.0R	-1.832%	0.4R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.036%	0.0R	-4.201%	0.8R	0.0×	48
4.2h ★	+0.036%	0.0R	-4.201%	0.8R	0.0×	49
8h	+0.586%	0.1R	-5.618%	1.1R	0.1×	96
12h	+0.586%	0.1R	-5.618%	1.1R	0.1×	144

computed 1 month ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.06

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bull_high	57%	noisy_chop 34%	early	—	—	0.40	bear_high	-4.59%	+0.65	04/08 20:00
4h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	52%	noisy_chop 43%	late	—	—	0.01	range_high	+0.11%	-0.99	04/08 20:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	balanced	compression	bear_high	57%	noisy_chop 35%	early	near 0.2ATR	near -1.1ATR	-0.11	bull_medium	+0.85%	+0.06	04/08 21:00
15m	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	range_high	37%	noisy_chop 31%	early	near -0.8ATR	—	0.09	range_low	+0.35%	-0.02	04/08 21:45
5m	—

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	7b	—	3.385×ATR	p28	-0.548×ATR	p48
4h	↓ down	late	20b	—	6.02×ATR	p91	-0.187×ATR	p21
1h	↓ down	early	6b	—	1.309×ATR	p0	-0.003×ATR	p1
15m	↓ down	early	7b	—	1.843×ATR	p4	-0.54×ATR	p56

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.95706745
tp_price: 0.886704
atr: 0.01905098
expires_at: 2026-08-05T08:10:05+00:00

Details

rank: 44
total: 45
score: 0.2845
delta_2h: -0.0317
extension_atr: -0.24
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0511
confidence: 0.977

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	22:10	0.90944000	+0.004%
2	23:10	0.91443000	+0.553%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.9094	0.9571	0.8867	0.48	0.3478

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.9094
Stop Loss: 0.9571
Take Profit: 0.8867

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.9571 - 0.9094 = 0.0477
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.9094 - 0.8867 = 0.0227
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0227 / 0.0477 = 0.4759

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
152.759	100	167.9704	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.0477

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0477 = 167.71

Taille de position USD = 167.71 x 0.9094 = 152.52

Donc, tu peux acheter 167.71 avec un stoploss a 0.9571

Avec un position size USD de 152.52$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 167.71 x 0.0477 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 167.71 x 0.0227 = 3.81

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.81$

Résumé

Taille de position 167.71
Taille de position USD 152.52
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 3.81
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.4759

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	3.81 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
5.25 %	8.01 $

PNL	PNL %
-2.68 $	-1.76

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-4.2006 %	80.08 %	1

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.9094	0.9571	0.8867	0.48	0.3478

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.9094
Stop Loss: 0.9571
Take Profit: 0.8867

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.9571 - 0.9094 = 0.0477
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.9094 - 0.8867 = 0.0227
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0227 / 0.0477 = 0.4759

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 4.2h) Initial Risk: -5.245% (0.0477)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.036%	0.0R	-0.870%	0.2R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.036%	0.0R	-1.832%	0.4R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.036%	0.0R	-4.201%	0.8R	0.0×	48
4.2h ★	+0.036%	0.0R	-4.201%	0.8R	0.0×	49
8h	+0.586%	0.1R	-5.618%	1.1R	0.1×	96
12h	+0.586%	0.1R	-5.618%	1.1R	0.1×	144

computed 1 month ago

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