Short Trade on VVV (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 16.55 VVV at 11.269$ per unit. Take profit: 10.0603 (10.73 %) & Stop Loss: 11.7525 (4.29 %)
05 Aug 2026 at 09:21:48
hyperliquid
VVV
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
05 Aug 2026 09:21
→ 21:20
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 11.269$
Qty 16.5467 VVV
Size 186.4644$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 10.0603 (+10.73%)
TP $ 20$
SL 11.7525 (-4.29%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.77%
/ -5.16$
MAE -3.80%
MFE +1.31%
0.3R
expires
05 Aug 21:21
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 59367)
#15 / 45
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 05/08/2026 09:00
score du 05/08/2026 09:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3090
Quality Score
0.545
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
05/08 09:17
05/08 09:17
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#15 / 45
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.29 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#15 / 45
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.29 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | 2.44×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.52×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bull_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_low Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 05/08 09:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 04/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 05/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 05/08 08:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.50
Transition risk :
0.50
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.70
Snapshot évalué : 05/08 09:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5452
Score SMA
0.4838
Rank
#15
/ 45
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3090
Rank Norm SMA
0.3013
Calculé le
05/08/2026 09:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3604 | r1h: 0.695% · r4h: -2.796% · r1d: -6.56% · r3d: -3.86% · ema21_slope: -0.1846% · dist_ema21: -3.293% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2946 | rs_1h: 0.121% · rs_4h: -3.291% · rs_1d: -7.39% · rs_3d: -5.94% · beta_24h: 1.018 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.7616 | rvol_20: 2.39× · zscore_50: 1.127 · trend: 88.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7409 | ADX: 29.0 (trend) · Chop: 38.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.295% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.291%
(0.4835)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.313% | 0.3R | -0.586% | 0.1R | 2.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.313% | 0.3R | -0.985% | 0.2R | 1.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.313% | 0.3R | -1.163% | 0.3R | 1.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.313% | 0.3R | -1.526% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.313% | 0.3R | -3.798% | 0.9R | 0.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.313% | 0.3R | -3.798% | 0.9R | 0.4× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.53
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | compression | bear_high |
65%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.44 | bear_high | -4.32% | +0.38 | 04/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | normal | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | — | 0.49 | range_high | +0.27% | -0.53 | 05/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
52%
|
choppy 46% | late | — | — | 0.43 | bull_medium | +1.07% | -0.68 | 05/08 08:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
52%
|
choppy 47% | early | — | — | 0.49 | range_low | +0.55% | -0.40 | 05/08 08:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 10b | — | 3.701×ATR | p43 | -0.768×ATR | p72 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 11b | — | 4.655×ATR | p73 | -1.317×ATR | p92 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 21b | — | 7.326×ATR | p100 | -2.203×ATR | p98 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 4b | — | 2.222×ATR | p31 | -0.706×ATR | p58 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8112
- reason: down_bo width=2.58×ATR dur=87b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 11.75248111
- tp_price: 10.06029722
- atr:
- score: 0.81118297828709
- expires_at: 2026-08-06T01:21:40.474122
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.81118297828709
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0233
- obi_top10 : 0.0214
- micro_price : 11.27960886
- spread_pct : 0.062084
- mid_price : 11.2785
- bid_wall_price : 11.2
- bid_wall_size : 9607.486
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 11.4
- ask_wall_size : 9168.38
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0296
- obi_top5_std : 0.0235
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7126
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
11.937
- balance_zone_bottom:
11.537
- balance_zone_mid:
11.737
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785625200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785934800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.5838
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
87
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8112
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785927600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
11.537
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6552
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
2
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.7311
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
9
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.15481114 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
87
inside_close_ratio
0.6552
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
1.7311
Signaux confirmants (61)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:21 | 11.26900000 | 0% |
| 2 | 09:27 | 11.26900000 | 0% |
| 3 | 09:34 | 11.26900000 | 0% |
| 4 | 09:39 | 11.19500000 | -0.657% |
| 5 | 09:45 | 11.19500000 | -0.657% |
| 6 | 09:51 | 11.22000000 | -0.435% |
| 7 | 09:57 | 11.22000000 | -0.435% |
| 8 | 10:05 | 11.22000000 | -0.435% |
| 9 | 10:09 | 11.27700000 | +0.071% |
| 10 | 10:16 | 11.27700000 | +0.071% |
| 11 | 10:21 | 11.28000000 | +0.098% |
| 12 | 10:27 | 11.28000000 | +0.098% |
| 13 | 10:34 | 11.28000000 | +0.098% |
| 14 | 10:39 | 11.19700000 | -0.639% |
| 15 | 10:45 | 11.19700000 | -0.639% |
| 16 | 10:51 | 11.21500000 | -0.479% |
| 17 | 10:57 | 11.21500000 | -0.479% |
| 18 | 11:04 | 11.21500000 | -0.479% |
| 19 | 11:09 | 11.16500000 | -0.923% |
| 20 | 11:15 | 11.16500000 | -0.923% |
| 21 | 11:21 | 11.16800000 | -0.896% |
| 22 | 11:27 | 11.16800000 | -0.896% |
| 23 | 11:33 | 11.16800000 | -0.896% |
| 24 | 11:39 | 11.28200000 | +0.115% |
| 25 | 11:45 | 11.28200000 | +0.115% |
| 26 | 11:51 | 11.34900000 | +0.71% |
| 27 | 11:57 | 11.34900000 | +0.71% |
| 28 | 12:04 | 11.34900000 | +0.71% |
| 29 | 12:09 | 11.34900000 | +0.71% |
| 30 | 12:15 | 11.34900000 | +0.71% |
| 31 | 12:21 | 11.27800000 | +0.08% |
| 32 | 12:27 | 11.27800000 | +0.08% |
| 33 | 12:34 | 11.27800000 | +0.08% |
| 34 | 12:39 | 11.33300000 | +0.568% |
| 35 | 12:45 | 11.33300000 | +0.568% |
| 36 | 12:51 | 11.25600000 | -0.115% |
| 37 | 12:57 | 11.25600000 | -0.115% |
| 38 | 13:04 | 11.25600000 | -0.115% |
| 39 | 13:09 | 11.24400000 | -0.222% |
| 40 | 13:15 | 11.24400000 | -0.222% |
| 41 | 13:21 | 11.26400000 | -0.044% |
| 42 | 13:27 | 11.26400000 | -0.044% |
| 43 | 13:33 | 11.26400000 | -0.044% |
| 44 | 13:39 | 11.28700000 | +0.16% |
| 45 | 13:45 | 11.28700000 | +0.16% |
| 46 | 13:51 | 11.32100000 | +0.461% |
| 47 | 13:57 | 11.32100000 | +0.461% |
| 48 | 14:04 | 11.32100000 | +0.461% |
| 49 | 14:09 | 11.29500000 | +0.231% |
| 50 | 14:15 | 11.29500000 | +0.231% |
| 51 | 14:21 | 11.27600000 | +0.062% |
| 52 | 14:26 | 11.27600000 | +0.062% |
| 53 | 14:33 | 11.27600000 | +0.062% |
| 54 | 14:39 | 11.21600000 | -0.47% |
| 55 | 14:45 | 11.21600000 | -0.47% |
| 56 | 14:51 | 11.18600000 | -0.737% |
| 57 | 14:56 | 11.18600000 | -0.737% |
| 58 | 15:04 | 11.18600000 | -0.737% |
| 59 | 15:09 | 11.29000000 | +0.186% |
| 60 | 15:15 | 11.29000000 | +0.186% |
| 61 | 15:21 | 11.28700000 | +0.16% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7126ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
81%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.023
avg 0.030
± 0.024
OBI Top 10
0.021
Microstructure
Mid Price
11.2785
Micro Price
11.2796
Spread
0.0621%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
11.2000
Size
9,607.49
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
11.4000
Size
9,168.38
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.269 | 11.7525 | 10.0603 | 2.5 | 25.249 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 11.269
- Stop Loss: 11.7525
- Take Profit: 10.0603
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 11.7525 - 11.269 = 0.4835
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 11.269 - 10.0603 = 1.2087
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.2087 / 0.4835 = 2.4999
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 186.4644 | 100 | 16.5467 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.4835
Taille de position = 8 / 0.4835 = 16.55
Taille de position USD = 16.55 x 11.269 = 186.5
Donc, tu peux acheter 16.55 avec un stoploss a 11.7525
Avec un position size USD de 186.5$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 16.55 x 0.4835 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 16.55 x 1.2087 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 16.55
- Taille de position USD 186.5
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4999
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 10.73 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.29 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -5.16 $ | -2.77 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.798 % | 88.52 % | 27 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.269 | 11.7525 | 10.0603 | 2.5 | 25.249 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 11.269
- Stop Loss: 11.7525
- Take Profit: 10.0603
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 11.7525 - 11.269 = 0.4835
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 11.269 - 10.0603 = 1.2087
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.2087 / 0.4835 = 2.4999
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.291%
(0.4835)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.313% | 0.3R | -0.586% | 0.1R | 2.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.313% | 0.3R | -0.985% | 0.2R | 1.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.313% | 0.3R | -1.163% | 0.3R | 1.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.313% | 0.3R | -1.526% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.313% | 0.3R | -3.798% | 0.9R | 0.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.313% | 0.3R | -3.798% | 0.9R | 0.4× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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