Short Trade on LINK (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 92.6 LINK at 8.104$ per unit. Take profit: 7.8882 (2.67 %) & Stop Loss: 8.1906 (1.07 %)
05 Aug 2026 at 23:07:50
hyperliquid
LINK
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
05 Aug 2026 23:07
→ 01:00
· 1 hour
Position
Entry 8.1042$
Qty 92.6006 LINK
Size 750.4534$ (margin 100$) (leverage 8)
Risk Setup
TP 7.8882 (+2.67%)
TP $ 20$
SL 8.1906 (-1.07%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.07%
/ -8$
MAE -1.71%
MFE +0.47%
0.4R
expires
06 Aug 11:07
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 59963)
#17 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 05/08/2026 23:00
score du 05/08/2026 23:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3390
Quality Score
0.515
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
05/08 23:00
05/08 23:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#17 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.07 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#17 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.07 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | 1.10×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.45×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 05/08 23:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 05/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 05/08 22:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.57
Transition risk :
0.43
Score contribution (this trade)
-1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.74
Snapshot évalué : 05/08 23:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5145
Score SMA
0.4884
Rank
#17
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3390
Rank Norm SMA
0.3137
Calculé le
05/08/2026 23:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4731 | r1h: -0.087% · r4h: -0.284% · r1d: -0.61% · r3d: -2.16% · ema21_slope: -0.0042% · dist_ema21: -0.523% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4442 | rs_1h: -0.067% · rs_4h: -0.216% · rs_1d: -0.94% · rs_3d: -4.42% · beta_24h: 1.749 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4466 | rvol_20: 1.38× · zscore_50: 0.654 · trend: -2.96% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4814 | ADX: 14.3 (weak) · Chop: 55.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.664% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.066%
(0.0864)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.049% | 0.1R | -0.248% | 0.2R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.049% | 0.1R | -1.359% | 1.3R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.049% | 0.1R | -1.476% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.469% | 0.4R | -1.476% | 1.4R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.469% | 0.4R | -1.708% | 1.6R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.469% | 0.4R | -2.899% | 2.7R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.34
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.86 | bear_high | -3.62% | -0.20 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | — | 0.86 | bull_high | +0.89% | -0.39 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_medium |
56%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | — | 0.80 | bull_low | +0.96% | -0.12 | 05/08 22:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | normal | range_low |
43%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | near -1.6ATR | — | — | range_low | +0.16% | -0.03 | 05/08 22:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 10b | — | 2.616×ATR | p7 | -0.224×ATR | p28 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 19b | — | 2.924×ATR | p44 | -0.224×ATR | p27 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 2.432×ATR | p36 | -0.533×ATR | p48 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 9b | — | 3.76×ATR | p77 | -1.027×ATR | p82 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8023
- reason: down_bo width=2.57×ATR dur=48b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 8.19059257
- tp_price: 7.88821858
- atr:
- score: 0.8022640435011
- expires_at: 2026-08-06T15:07:42.484560
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.8022640435011
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0451
- obi_top10 : 0.089
- micro_price : 8.10816431
- spread_pct : 0.012333
- mid_price : 8.1085
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.058
- obi_top5_std : 0.0118
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7050
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
8.251
- balance_zone_bottom:
8.12
- balance_zone_mid:
8.1855
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785816000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785985200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.5724
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
48
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8023
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785981600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
8.12
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.9167
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.3103
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
16
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.05092566 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
48
inside_close_ratio
0.9167
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3103
Signaux confirmants (9)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23:07 | 8.10420000 | 0% |
| 2 | 23:13 | 8.10420000 | 0% |
| 3 | 23:37 | 8.11740000 | +0.163% |
| 4 | 23:43 | 8.11740000 | +0.163% |
| 5 | 23:49 | 8.10740000 | +0.039% |
| 6 | 23:55 | 8.10740000 | +0.039% |
| 7 | 00:02 | 8.10740000 | +0.039% |
| 8 | 00:07 | 8.10260000 | -0.02% |
| 9 | 00:13 | 8.10260000 | -0.02% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7050ms
Confidence avant OB :
80%
→
80%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.045
avg 0.058
± 0.012
OBI Top 10
0.089
Microstructure
Mid Price
8.1085
Micro Price
8.1082
Spread
0.0123%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1042 | 8.1906 | 7.8882 | 2.5 | 10.886 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 8.1042
- Stop Loss: 8.1906
- Take Profit: 7.8882
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 8.1906 - 8.1042 = 0.086399999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 8.1042 - 7.8882 = 0.216
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.216 / 0.086399999999999 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 750.4534 | 100 | 92.6006 | 8.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.086399999999999
Taille de position = 8 / 0.086399999999999 = 92.59
Taille de position USD = 92.59 x 8.1042 = 750.37
Donc, tu peux acheter 92.59 avec un stoploss a 8.1906
Avec un position size USD de 750.37$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 92.59 x 0.086399999999999 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 92.59 x 0.216 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 92.59
- Taille de position USD 750.37
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.67 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.07 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.07 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1513 % | 107.99 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1042 | 8.1906 | 7.8882 | 2.5 | 10.886 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 8.1042
- Stop Loss: 8.1906
- Take Profit: 7.8882
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 8.1906 - 8.1042 = 0.086399999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 8.1042 - 7.8882 = 0.216
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.216 / 0.086399999999999 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 7.8882
[entry_price] => 8.1042
[stop_loss] => 8.19924
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-06 05:05:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 7.8882
[entry_price] => 8.1042
[stop_loss] => 8.20788
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-06 05:05:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 7.8882
[entry_price] => 8.1042
[stop_loss] => 8.21652
[rr_ratio] => 1.92
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-06 05:15:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.066%
(0.0864)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.049% | 0.1R | -0.248% | 0.2R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.049% | 0.1R | -1.359% | 1.3R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.049% | 0.1R | -1.476% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.469% | 0.4R | -1.476% | 1.4R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.469% | 0.4R | -1.708% | 1.6R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.469% | 0.4R | -2.899% | 2.7R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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